Pittsburgh Pirates: Five Surprising Prospects This Season

These five Pittsburgh Pirates minor leaguers entered 2022 with low expectations, but have performed surprisingly well

There’s been a ton of attention given to top-performing prospects like Ji-Hwan Bae, Endy Rodriguez, Quinn Priester, and Mike Burrows this season. Even Nick Gonzales has done great since returning from the injured list. But they were all expected to do well. There are no surprises there.

But the Pittsburgh Pirates have had a handful of shocking seasons this year. That doesn’t mean that these players don’t have talent, but they’ve far exceeded their expectations for the year. They’ve been so good this year that they may make future roster decisions, especially when we approach the Rule 5 draft, a bit more challenging.

Today, I want to look at five surprising minor league performances this year. The baseball season is winding down, and we’ve seen some guys play very well for the Pirates minor league affiliates. But these guys went far beyond the expectations set for them.

Aaron Shackelford

At this point, I’d argue that Aaron Shackelford has surpassed Mason Martin in terms of who deserves a first chance at the major league level. Shackelford didn’t have a great 2021 campaign. He hit just .210/.290/.438 with a .313 wOBA and 91 wRC+. He had a pedestrian 8.6% walk rate and struck out 31.6% of the time. Of the few positives, he had 22 home runs and a .228 isolated slugging percentage.

As Shackelford headed into the 2022 campaign, he was expected just to be the first baseman for Altoona and fill a roster spot. There was little fanfare for Shackelford in a stacked infield with Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, and Jared Triolo. But the infielder has done well for Altoona, improving in several areas.

In 397 plate appearances, Shackelford is batting .250/.323/.528. He’s hit 25 home runs in 24 fewer plate appearances to 2021. His ISO has risen fifty points to .278. His walk rate has remained relatively constant at 8.8%, but he has seen a slight decrease in his strikeouts, getting it below 30% to 29.5%. He’s even shown some base running ability, swiping ten bases in 12 attempts. In total, Shackelford has a .365 wOBA and 126 wRC+.

Shackelford has primarily played first base this year but has also seen an ample amount of time at second base. He played a decent bit of third base in 2019 but has just 4.1 innings logged at the hot corner since. Shackelford may not appear on many prospect radars. Still, at this point, you have to consider protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft if given the opportunity and seeing what he can do at the major league level next season.

Matt Gorski

Matt Gorski put up pretty similar numbers to Aaron Shackelford in 2021. In 401 trips to the plate, Gorski slashed .223/.294/.416 with a .309 wOBA and 89 wRC+. Gorski also had a pretty average walk rate at 8.5%, with a K% above 30% at 31.2%. He had 17 home runs, a .193 isolated slugging percentage, and 18 stolen bases in 18 attempts. He put on a solid display of power and speed, but that’s as far as the positives go.

Gorski opened up 2022 with the Greensboro Grasshoppers. But after matching his 2021 home run total in 255 fewer plate appearances, Gorski was quickly moved to Double-A Altoona. Gorski’s season has been hampered because of an injury, but his numbers this year have been off the charts, especially in the power department.

In 277 plate appearances, Gorski has slashed .290/.373/.664. Gorski has decreased his strikeout rate to 28.4% but has seen a significant uptick in walks. He’s drawn ball four at an 11.2% rate. Gorski has 24 home runs, which puts him on pace for 52 in 600 plate appearances. Gorski’s .373 isolated slugging percentage is far and away the highest mark in minor league baseball (min. 250 PAs). Second place Brent Rooker has a .347 ISO. Gorski has a 170 wRC+ (the fourth best in minor league baseball) and .440 wOBA (the 6th best in minor league baseball), and 1.037 OPS (fifth best in minor league baseball).

Gorski has continued to be a base stealing threat, swiping 18 bags in 21 attempts. He’s fast enough and has a good enough glove to play center field, and he also has a plus arm and can easily gun runners down who are trying to stretch base hits into extra-base hits. Gorski is an outfielder by trade but can play first base.

Had Gorski not suffered an injury that kept him out for all of July and August, we may have seen him at Triple-A already. He’s a bit older at 24-years-old, but the Pittsburgh Pirates will likely protect him for the Rule 5 Draft. Gorski has 20/20 potential and could serve as a quality OF/1B option in 2023.

Tahnaj Thomas

Among the minor leaguers we’ll look at today, Tahnaj Thomas is the highest-ranked prospect. At one point, Thomas was a top 100 prospect. Thomas was consistently among FanGraphs’ highest-ranked prospects, reaching their top 100 list on four separate occasions. But after 2021, there were more questions than answers for Thomas.

In 60.2 innings for Greensboro, Thomas had a 5.19 ERA, 6.49 FIP, and 1.58 WHIP. For a guy with overpowering stuff, Thomas struck out just 22.1% of the batters he faced while giving up a walk 12.5% of the time. But despite that, neither of those was his biggest weakness. Thomas had an HR/9 rate approaching 2.0, coming in at 1.93. This caused Thomas to plummet across all prospect boards.

After his promotion to Altoona, Thomas has seemingly figured things out as a reliever. He’s only made one start while pitching 48.1 innings, working to the tune of a 2.98 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP. The home runs he struggled with so much in 2021 have been a non-issue for him, with a .53 HR/9. The walk rate has gone down to just 9.3%, while his  strikeout rate has risen to 25%.

But most of Thomas’ good work has been done since the outset of summer. Since June 1st, Thomas has had elite numbers. Those include a 1.85 ERA, 2.25 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP. Thomas has surrendered a single home run in his last 36 innings of work while striking out nearly 30% of batters faced (29.6%). His 6.7% walk rate is excellent as well.

Thomas is still working in the mid-90s while hitting the upper-90s regularly. He’s also greatly improved his slider. He’s always been a two-pitch pitcher whose change-up was a distant third pitch, but now that he’s fully embraced the high-leverage reliever role, he’s done more than excel. He’s arguably the Pirates’ best relief pitching prospect.

Thomas’ 2022 season is the least surprising among the names we’ll talk about today. It’s always been a question if Thomas could harness the talent and power in his arm rather than if he had the talent and power. But Thomas’ massive decrease in walks is a big surprise, and his transition to the bullpen has been extremely smooth. At this rate, we may see him setting up games for David Bednar sometime in 2023.

Nick Dombkowski

Usually, undrafted free agents have meager expectations. It’s sort of like a Rule 5 Draft pick. Teams pick them up, hoping to find a diamond in the rough, knowing that it’s far from a guarantee that they will become a successful big leaguer. After their exciting 2021 draft, the Pirates signed Nick Dombkowski as a UDFA out of the University of Hartford, a program that recently moved from Division 1 to Division 3 NCAA.

The college senior didn’t have any over-the-top numbers to highlight. He had a 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, which were decent, but nothing to write home about. He had a 0.7 HR/9 rate and 7.6% walk rate, and a 22.5% strikeout rate. All those numbers are far from bad, but nothing stands out as a potential strength.

Dombkowski got his first full look of professional ball this year, and he’s been outright dominant. The southpaw has flown through the Pirates’ system, starting the year with Bradenton and currently pitching for Altoona. He may even see Triple-A this year, given the Double-A season ends about two weeks before the Triple-A campaign does.

All told, Dombkowski has a 2.52 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP. Both his ERA and WHIP are the best among all Pirates’ minor leaguers this year, and his FIP is surpassed by only Mike Burrows, who has a 3.12 mark (min. 60 IP). Dombkowski also leads all Pirate farmhands in strikeout rate with a 32.9% rate, and his walk rate of 6.9% is second to Quinn Priester’s 6.6% walk rate. The only downside is his 1.04 HR/9 is below average.

Regardless, Dombkowski leads all Pirates minor leaguers in ERA, WHIP, and K% and is second in FIP and BB%. In total, he’s pitched 60.2 innings, mostly working as a long-relief arm. In his 32 total outings, he’s pitched more than one inning 19 times. In nine of those games, he went 3+ IP.

Dombkowski could be a really underrated name to watch next season. The Pittsburgh Pirates could see him make a name for himself in their bullpen next season. They have some high-leverage guys like David Bednar, Yerry De Los Santos, the aforementioned Thomas, Wil Crowe, and Colin Holderman, but Dombkowski could fill multiple roles, sort of like a super-utility pitcher; see some high-leverage moments, pitch multiple innings at a time, and maybe make a start here and there.