Pittsburgh Pirates: Way-to-Early Look at End of 2023 Roster

The Pittsburgh Pirates 2022 Major League season may have just ended, but let’s look ahead at what next year’s team could look like around this time.

The 2022 season has just come to a close. Although the Pittsburgh Pirates finished just 62-100, they saw many promising young players such as Ji-Hwan Bae, Oneil Cruz, Roansy Contreras, Jack Suwinski, and Rodolfo Castro become a regular fixture in the line-up by the last games of the campaign. That’s already a reasonably talented group, paired with Bryan Reynolds having another quality year and Mitch Keller’s breakout, and it’s a pretty good outlook on what 2023 could hold.

While it is still a year out from the end of the 2023 season, the current roster could look fairly different, given the Pirates’ talent in the upper levels of the minor leagues. There’s plenty that could change between now and then, and it’s incredibly early to make concrete predictions, but I want to take a shot in the dark as to what the depth chart could hold at the end of next season.

Catcher

Of course, Endy Rodriguez is the popular prospect to talk about right now regarding the Pittsburgh Pirates. Rodriguez is coming off an amazing season in which he slashed .323/.407/.590 with a .434 wOBA and 166 wRC+. For the fourth season in a row, he had a walk rate above 10% at 11.3% and a strikeout rate below 20% at 19%. Rodriguez’s second half was a sight to behold, posting a 1.228 OPS, .516 wOBA, and 222 wRC+ through his last 219 trips to the plate. His overall season numbers were bogged down by a poor April. From May through the end of the year, Rodriguez had a 1.061 OPS, .458 wOBA, and 182 wRC+.

2021 first-overall pick Henry Davis was also a quality batter when healthy. He finished the 2022 campaign with a .264/.380/.472 slash line to go with an 8.2% walk rate and 20% K-rate. Power wasn’t an issue for the backstop as he had a .208 ISO. All told, he had a .385 wOBA and 135 wRC+. I wouldn’t be too worried about Davis’ performance at Double-A. He was clearly slowed down by injuries that were no fault of his own. Davis was hit by 20 pitches in just 255 plate appearances. He was the only batter with fewer than 375 plate appearances hit by more than 20 balls in the minor leagues.

Where Davis and Rodriguez play remains to be seen. Rodriguez can play first base, second base, and left field, and Davis started to see some playing time in left field at the end of this year. If the Pirates feel they can keep each other fresh by rotating them at catcher, first base, and designated hitter, that could also be an option. But they could carry a third catcher solely for their defensive work in Jason Delay.

Delay is pretty much a defensive specialist, meaning he doesn’t bring much value as a batter. In 167 plate appearances, Delay batted just .213/.265/.271 with a .243 wOBA and 53 wRC+. Even in a year when catchers had a .663 OPS, .293 wOBA, and 89 wRC+, Delay was a lousy hitter for the worst offensive position on the diamond. But, despite having just 436.2 innings caught, Delay racked up +3 DRS and +3.7 framing runs.

First Base

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired their best first base prospect at the trade deadline in Malcom Nuñez. Sent from the Cardinals with Johan Oviedo for José Quintana and Chris Stratton, Nunez looked great in his first games in the Pirate organization.

Through 143 plate appearances, Nunez batted .280/.385/.475 with a .378 wOBA and 135 wRC+. Nuñez’s 22.4% strikeout rate isn’t terrible, but it’s not great, either. But he offsets that with a phenomenal 14.7% walk rate. After arriving at his new organization, Nuñez hit six home runs and provided Altoona and Indianapolis with a .195 isolated slugging percentage. Nuñez really picked up the production when summer hit, having a .913 OPS, .396 wOBA, and 136 wRC+ from the start of June through the end of the year.

Nuñez mostly played first base this year but has seen plenty of time at the hot corner. But his defense at third base is below average at best. First base and designated hitter is his long-term home, given he’s just a 30-grade runner and would not fare well in the grass.

Still, the upside for Nuñez is there. He could be a .280 hitter who provides a high OBP and 25 home runs at first base. His defense at first base may not be Gold Glove level, but if he can be average, he’ll do just fine. Plus, the Pittsburgh Pirates can mitigate any defensive issues that arise with Nunez by splitting his time at first base and DH.

As stated earlier, Nuñez may be at the top of the first base depth chart, but both Davis and Rodriguez could see time at the position. Diego Castillo also saw some time at first base at the end of the season. Still, if the Pirates have three guys capable of handling first base, at least in a semi-regular capacity, Castillo isn’t much more than an emergency option.

Second Base

At the top of the depth chart, we’ll likely see Nick Gonzales. Gonzo was the Pittsburgh Pirates first-round pick in 2020 and has performed very well throughout his minor league career. This year, he spent the season at Double-A Altoona, where he slashed .263/.387/.429 with a .365 wOBA and 127 wRC+. That might be a step down from what he produced with Greensboro last year, but an injury slowed down Gonzales in 2022. When he came back healthy, he demolished the ball.

Gonzales was on fire from early August through the end of the season, batting .287/.404/.513 with a .403 wOBA and 150 wRC+. He walked at a 13.5% rate while having a 22.7% strikeout rate. He crushed three home runs in 141 plate appearances but racked up 13 doubles, leading to a .226 isolated slugging percentage. Another plus is he only had a 20.7% strikeout rate through his final month of 2022.

Gonzales will likely get the most reps at second base if he is healthy, but Ji-Hwan Bae also may see a decent amount of time at the keystone, especially at the start of the year. The South Korean prospect collected 11 hits and walked twice in 37 plate appearances. He was also three-for-three in stolen base attempts. But if the Pirates feel Bae would be better served in the outfield to start 2022, they could also put Tucupita Marcano at 2B. Marcano only had a .562 OPS, .249 wOBA, and 57 wRC+ in his 177 plate appearance sample size this year but showed plenty of talent at Double-A and Triple-A.

Rodolfo Castro may also see time at second base, though I consider him more of a designated hitter option in the long run. Hoy Park and Diego Castillo are two other utility men who are options at second base, but on the major league depth chart, you’re probably looking at some mix of Gonzales, Bae, Marcano, and Castro.

Third Base

No one is moving Ke’Bryan Hayes off of third base. He’s arguably the best defensive player at the hot corner currently. The third baseman had +24 defensive runs saved, the most among all position players. He also had +18 outs above average, making him the third-best defender behind just Jonathan Schoop (+27) and Dansby Swanson (+20). UZR/150 also painted him in bright light at +6.8.

But Hayes turned in just a .659 OPS, .294 wOBA, and 88 wRC+. Despite that, Hayes does have the potential to be a whole lot better. He had a solid 8.6% walk rate and 21.8% strikeout rate, both of which are above average. Hayes was also in the top 85th percentile of exit velocity and 84th percentile of hard-hit rate. He’s the first batter in the Statcast Era (since 2015) to step to the plate at least 550 times and have fewer than 20 home runs while having both an exit velo and hard-hit rate in the 85th percentile or higher.

Where Hayes struggles is getting the ball in the air. He had just a 5.2-degree launch angle, leading to a 49.4% ground ball rate and 3.9% barrel rate. Hayes doesn’t need to become Kyle Schwarber and have a launch angle approaching 20 degrees to be productive. Toronto Blue Jays stars Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk have similar hard hit rates and exit velos to Hayes with a launch angle in the 8-9 degree range. If Hayes can make just a slight adjustment to have a slightly higher launch angle, he could be the Pirates’ most productive batter next year.

The Pirates could also utilize Jared Triolo at third base. Triolo turned in yet another quality campaign at Altoona, posting a .795 OPS, .356 wOBA, and 121 wRC+. It’s the third season in a row he has had a sub-20% K-rate and 110+ wRC+. He also had a scorching hot second half of the year and plays a great third base. But he is also an option in the outfield and shortstop.

Both Castillo, Park, and Marcano could serve in a reserve role at third base, and Miguel Andujar could fill in, but mainly in an emergency role. On the active roster, though, you’re probably looking at Hayes, followed by Triolo, then Marcano.

Outfield

Regardless of what rumors, Bryan Reynolds will be part of this outfield unless a team comes knocking with an already proven MLB player with multiple prospects in tow. Although Reynolds did have a downturn in production from 2021, he still turned in an outstanding season. In 614 plate appearances, Reynolds batted .262/.345/.461 with a .349 wOBA, and 125 wRC+. He crushed a career-high 27 home runs on top of that.

Reynolds got off to an ice-cold start in 2022, but from June onward, he was back to his typical self. In 422 plate appearances, he had a .860 OPS, .369 wOBA, and 139 wRC+, which was nearly identical to what he did in his 2019 rookie season (.880 OPS, .371 wOBA, 130 wRC+). Reynolds’ centerfield defense wasn’t as good as in 2021, with -14 DRS, a -3.3 UZR/150, and -7 outs above average.

The Pittsburgh Pirates also share the sentiment that Reynolds may not be the long-term answer in center field, giving Ji-Hwan Bae more playing time up the middle over Reynolds and moving Reynolds to left field. Bae showed off some decent fielding prowess in the outfield, and while the fielding metrics didn’t like him all that much, you also have to remember it’s less than 50 innings, so no fielding metric will be accurate in that small of a sample size.

Jack Suwinski should fill the other outfield corner. Suwinski had a decent rookie campaign, cranking out 19 dingers, which was tied with Michael Harris of the Atlanta Braves for the most by an NL Rookie. He was a league-average batter on the dot, slashing .202/.298/.411 with a .311 wOBA and 100 wRC+. He drew a walk in 11% of his plate appearances but also struck out 30.6% of the time. His offense may have been average, but his glove was well above average.

In 818.2 innings, Suwinski had +2 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Outs Above Average, and a +8.5 UZR/150. He played an ample amount of time at all three outfield spots, but his best defensive work came in center field. Right now, I have him penciled into a corner outfield spot, but nobody should be opposed if he plays center field with Bae and Reynolds flanking him.

The Pittsburgh Pirates do have a few options for the fourth outfield spot. Cal Mitchell is one option after he put up a .734 OPS, .329 wOBA, and 112 wRC+ after his September call-up. The downside is he was not providing any defensive value with -4 DRS, -3 OAA and a -13.5 UZR/150 in less than 500 innings in the grass.

The other option is Travis Swaggerty. Swaggerty posted a wRC+ above 100 for the fourth season in a row, with a 102 mark to go with a .747 OPS and a .338 wOBA. After seeing his ground ball rate shrink to just 36.7% in 2021, it went back up to 50.2% this year, which severely limited his power and saw his ISO fall from .220 to just .146. That’s still relatively solid, though; he reached base nearly 35% of the time. If he can revert to what he did in his small sample size of 2021, he could become a regular fixture. Swaggerty did make his debut this year but played in just five games with nine plate appearances. He started in just three of those games.

Currently, I would put Swaggerty over Mitchell. If the ceiling here is a fourth outfielder, I would much rather have the better defensive option who can play all three outfield spots. It wouldn’t surprise me either if the Pittsburgh Pirates decided to shop Swaggerty or Mitchell around to bolster the pitching staff, which we’ll get into here in a bit.

Designated Hitter

I currently have Rodolfo Castro taking semi-regular at-bats as the designated hitter. Like Suwinski and Cruz, Castro also posted average or better numbers at the dish, batting .233/.299/.427. Castro hit 11 home runs with a .194 isolated slugging percentage but also struck out 26.6% of the time. It also didn’t help his 7.9% walk rate was nothing special. But in the end, his .315 wOBA and 103 wRC+ were slightly above average.

But Castro was much better after being recalled in early August. His last 196 plate appearances saw him hit for a .797 OPS, .342 wOBA, and 121 wRC+, along with a .235 isolated slugging percentage. Castro’s defense at second base was not great, having -2 defensive runs saved, -11.2 UZR/150, and -3 outs above average, which is why I pencil him in as a designated hitter.

I would also put outfield prospect Canaan Smith-Njigba high up on the DH depth list. Castro did poorly against right-handers this year with just an 83 wRC+, but when he faced a southpaw, he had a 148 wRC+. Smith-Njigba is a lefty batter who had a .875 OPS vs. righties this year at Triple-A.

You can’t rule out Malcom Nuñez here, but I think most of his playing time will be at first base. Davis and Rodriguez may also see some time here, but mostly to stay fresh rather than be regular options at designated hitter. The Pirates may instead put Miguel Andújar here, yet another option at DH.

Starting Pitching

Let’s first start with the most established in Roansy Contreras. Contreras had a decent rookie campaign, posting a 3.79 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP in 95 innings of work. He needs to show a little more consistency, but that’s about the only knock on him. Other than that, Contreras has the stuff to be a frontline rotation arm.

Mitch Keller also had a big breakout season. He reduced his season ERA and FIP from 6.17 and 4.30 in 2021 to just 3.91 and 3.88 this year. However, it wasn’t smooth sailing for the right-hander the entire year. It took until about mid-May for him to figure it out. But in the last 123.2 innings of the year, Keller had a 3.20 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP. He fully embraced becoming a sinkerballer, making it his most used offering. This helped him put up a 50% ground ball rate and put up a .65 HR/9.

Quinn Priester will also be part of this rotation by the end of 2023. Up until the last three starts of the season, Priester had a 2.56 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP. But in his last three starts and 13 innings, he completely tanked his numbers, surrendering 11 earned runs on two home runs and nine walks. He did strike out 16, but he gave up half the amount of runs he allowed all season up to that point (22 through his first 16 starts and 11 in his final three).

Mike Burrows’ season was also met with a similar fate. The right-hander made massive strides in 2022, becoming one of the best pitching prospects the Pirates had to offer. In his first 21 starts/93.2 innings, Burrows had a 3.46 ERA but 3.11 FIP and 1.15 WHIP. He struck out nearly 30% of the batters he faced with a 28.8% rate while having a sub-8% walk rate (7.8%) and .67 HR/9. Burrows then surrendered six earned runs in two-thirds of an inning in his last start of the year, inflating his season ERA from just under 3.50 to 4.01.

Neither Priester’s last three outings nor Burrows’ last two outings change their futures. Still, it’s worth noting as to how a small sample size can greatly affect overall season numbers, especially for minor league pitchers. Contreras, Keller, Priester, and Burrows make a solid 1-4, but who is in the fifth spot? Right now, I have Luis Ortiz over Johan Oviedo.

Don’t get me wrong, Oviedo looks good, but so has Ortiz, and how often do you find a starting pitcher who can throw 100 MPH? Ortiz may have only started four games, but he looked terrific in three of those outings. But more importantly, he struck out nearly a quarter of the batters he faced while holding opponents to an 86.1 MPH and 31% hard-hit rate.

Relief Pitching

The Pittsburgh Pirates had poor relief pitching this year, but it could be a better situation next season. David Bednar should return healthy after struggling some with inconsistent performance in the second half and missing a good chunk of time because of injury. They’ll also get Yerry De Los Santos and Colin Holderman back, two rookies who looked decent in their time with the Pirates before landing on the injured list.

Wil Crowe struggled mightily in September, which caused his numbers to inflate significantly. He had a great first half of the year, and he’ll look to return to that form next season. Hopefully, he can sustain it through a full year. Manny Banuelos has also likely secured a spot in the bullpen, given the team needs at least one lefty, and he wasn’t terrible for the Pirates.

The top rookie we should see in the bullpen is Tahnaj Thomas. From June through the end of the year, Thomas fully embraced the relief role, the hard-throwing right-hander had a 1.98 ERA, 2.70 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP. His strikeout rate sat at 28.5% while having just a 6.9% walk rate and .5 HR/9. One of Nick Dombkowski or Tyler Samaniego may also be part of the bullpen to give the Pirates a second left-handed option.

You could slot in a ton of guys in the long-relief role. JT Brubaker may move to the bullpen if he is forced out by one of the young arms. Johan Ovideo may also move to the pen for similar reasons. They could call-up Cody Bolton to fill this role, or they could bring Chase De Jong back next year.