Pittsburgh Pirates: Previewing Rule 5 Eligible Prospects

Catcher

Endy Rodriguez is coming off another fantastic season. In 531 plate appearances, Rodriguez batted .323/.407/.590 with a .434 wOBA and 166 wRC+. Rodriguez also had a healthy 11.3% walk rate and 19% strikeout rate. On top of that, he was over 100% better than the league-average batter in the second half of 2022. Rodriguez made his way from High-A Greensboro all the way to Triple-A Indy. He’s a decent defensive backstop, but he can play first base, second base, and left field. Rodriguez has gone from a mid-tier organization prospect to a top-50 prospect in a matter of two years.

Abrahan Gutierrez is another noteworthy catching prospect in the organization. Acquired at the 2021 trade deadline, Gutierrez batted .257/.356/.411 with a .353 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Gutierrez had a poor 25.4% strikeout rate but also walked 11.8% of the time. He also finished off the year strong with a second half in which he had a .840 OPS, .383 wOBA, and 130 wRC+. Gutierrez is about average behind the dish but started to play some first base this year in order to make room for the rest of the catching prospects in the system.

Blake Sabol is another guy who is coming off a strong season at the dish. Through 513 plate appearances for Altoona and Indy, Sabol batted .284/.363/.497 with a .373 wOBA and 131 wRC+. Sabol had a sub-par 25.1% strikeout rate but walked just over 10% of the time with a 10.7% K-rate. Plus, he hit 19 home runs. Sabol can play catcher and corner outfield and could see some time at first base, given the lack of depth at the position. He’s also a poor defender behind the dish with an arm on the weaker side, so first base might end up being his best position, given his skill set.

The last ranked prospect worth mentioning is Carter Bins. Marty recently recapped Carter Bins’ 2022 season. Acquired for Tyler Anderson at the ’21 deadline, Bins was the owner of a .196/.285/.388 slash line. His wOBA sat at .299, and his wRC+ was 78. Of the few positives, Bins had a solid 8.8% walk rate and a .192 isolated slugging percentage while displaying solid defense behind the dish. But he struck out well over 35% of the time (36.2%), which limits his power potential.

Among the other backstops, the Pirates have who are Rule 5 eligible include Eli Wilson (.688 OPS, .317 wOBA, 90 wRC+) and Grant Koch (.583 OPS, .294 wOBA, 79 wRC+). Both Wilson and Koch are examples of the organizational depth every team has. Neither is likely selected in this year’s Rule 5 draft, and even if they were, neither is going to change the future outlook for the Pirates.

Infield

We’ll start at first base and make our way around the horn. The Pittsburgh Pirates best first base prospect is Malcom Nunez. After being acquired by the Pirates at the trade deadline as part of the two-player package for Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton, Nunez batted .280/.385/.475 with a .378 wOBA and 135 wRC+. He hit for his fair share of power with a .195 isolated slugging percentage while having a robust 14.7% walk rate. His strikeout rate of 22.4% was also above average. Nunez is a poor defender at third base but has played a significant amount of first base in the last year, where he could be a playable defender. He also did pretty decently with the Cards’ Double-A affiliate, having a .823 OPS, .367 wOBA, and 110 wRC+.

Aaron Shackelford is coming off a decent season with Double-A Altoona. Shackelford batted .239/.314/.499 with a .351 wOBA, and 117 wRC+. He hit for a ton of power, popping 26 home runs and having a .259 isolated slugging percentage in 443 plate appearances. He also had a decent 9% walk rate. But he also struck out 28.9% of the time. Shackelford can play first base, but he also saw time at second base, left field, and can play some third base. He’s a powerful utility man.

Mason Martin posted his worst career numbers yet. In 541 plate appearances, Martin posted a poor .210/.287/.410 line, .303 wOBA, and 79 wRC+ with Indy. Martin has some of the best power potential in the system and hit 19 home runs with a .200 ISO, but he also struck out 35.9% of the time. He did walk at a 9.6% rate, which was a nice increase from 2021, but it’s been made clear that Martin has a ton of risk. It also doesn’t help that he had an abysmal second half in which his ISO fell to just .158.

Among others at first base, you have Jacob Gonzalez (.836 OPS, .381 wOBA, 132 wRC+), Brendt Citta (.706 OPS, .318 wOBA, 93 wRC+), Will Matthiessen (.532 OPS, .229 wOBA, 37 wRC+), and Ernny Ordonez (.666 OPS, .291 wOBA, 74 wRC+). Only Gonzalez has a chance of being selected out of this group, but even then, since he hasn’t even reached Double-A yet, the chance of him getting picked is not very high.

Both second base and shortstop have very few noteworthy Rule 5 eligible players. They have just one, which is 20-year-old Rayber Romero. Romero did not play in 2022 after testing positive for stanozolol, causing him to miss the entirety of the season. In 2019 and 2021, he was quite the good batter with a .291/.443/.361 line, .408 wOBA, and 138 wRC+. He hit for almost no power, but he had a potent 17.5% walk rate and sub-15% K-rate (13.3%).

On the other side of second base, the only notable Rule 5 eligible prospect is Maikol Escotto. Escotto is coming off a poor season in which he batted just .202/.278/.358 with a .295 wOBA and 77 wRC+. He also struck out just over 30% of the time (30.9%) with a mediocre 7.4% walk rate. Escotto is a solid defender at shortstop but has seen time at second base and third base. He has plus power potential but has yet to piece anything together in an entire season.

Francisco Acuna is the only other Rule 5 eligible shortstop. Acuna did quite well at High-A Greensboro, batting .271/.361/.452, leading to a .371 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Acuna had an 8.8% walk rate and 22.8% strikeout rate, along with a .181 isolated slugging percentage. He’s 22 years old and will likely factor into Altoona’s roster next season.

The hot corner is where we see more notable Rule 5-eligible guys. Jared Triolo is the best among them, having batted .282/.376/.419 with a .356 wOBA and 121 wRC+. Although Triolo turned in just a .136 ISO, he also walked 12.7% of the time with a 17.6% K-rate. Triolo also had a great summer, posting a .878 OPS, .385 wOBA, .194 ISO, and 140 wRC+ from June through the end of the year. Triolo is arguably the best defensive infield prospect the Pirates have to offer. He’s a third baseman by trade but can play shortstop and center field.

Dariel Lopez is another infield prospect coming off a solid campaign. He batted .286/.329/.476, owned a .359 wOBA, and 116 wRC+. Lopez crushed 19 home runs while having a .189 ISO. On the downside, he only walked 5% of the time with a 25.5% K-rate. Like Triolo, Lopez also enjoyed a fun summer, having a .859 OPS, .382 wOBA, and 131 wRC+ from June through the end of 2022. Lopez mostly played third base but has played an ample amount of time in the middle infield. He’ll likely end up at first base because of his sub-par range and overall fielding prowess at third and the middle infield.

Andres Alvarez (.789 OPS, .342 wOBA, 111 wRC+), Juan Jerez (.647 OPS, .306 wOBA, and 86 wRC+), Alexander Mojica (.607 OPS, .297 wOBA, 90 wRC+), and Luis Tejada (.885 OPS, .446 wOBA, 173 wRC+) are the rest of the third base minor leaguers who will be Rule 5 eligible. Alvarez has a chance of being picked. This year, he was a 20/20 batter who provided playable defense at the hot corner, both middle infield positions and left field. But, like Jacob Gonzalez, it is far from a guarantee to be selected.

Outfield

Matt Gorski is coming off a big season at the dish. Through 325 plate appearances, Gorski batted .280/.358/.597 with a .411 wOBA and 153 wRC+. Gorski has always had good power potential, but nobody saw this coming. He hit 24 home runs with an isolated slugging percentage of .317. He was on pace for over 40 dingers in 600 plate appearances. That did come with the caveat of a 28.6% strikeout rate, but he offset it some with a 10.2% walk rate and swiping 20 bases in 23 attempts. Gorski is a decent defensive outfielder with a strong arm, but he can also play first base. It would be nice if he turned into a 2018/2020 Cody Bellinger.

Arguably the second-best outfield prospect the Pirates have who is Rule 5 eligible is Rodolfo Nolasco. Nolasco played in an injury-shortened 321 plate appearances. But he batted .239/.330/.425 with a .344 wOBA, and 111 wRC+. Nolasco walked 11.5% of the time but struck out in 34% of his trips to the plate. Nolasco also looked much better during summer, having a .940 OPS, .424 wOBA, and 163 wRC+. Nolasco isn’t the best defensive outfielder the Pittsburgh Pirates have to offer, but he can hold his own in left field, and he has a good enough arm to play a corner outfield position.

Matt Fraizer produced what was arguably the most disappointing season among all prospects the Pirates own. He batted just .219/.284/.333 with a .278 wOBA and 69 wRC+ for Double-A Altoona. He did swipe 18 bases in 19 attempts and displayed solid defense, but after a season in which he was one of the Pittsburgh Pirates best minor-league hitters, it was quite a disappointing follow-up. Hopefully, he can rebound next season, assuming he isn’t selected.

Connor Scott was acquired in the Jacob Stallings trade. He batted just .247/.308/.389 with a .309 wOBA, and 90 wRC+. His strikeout and walk rates weren’t terrible at 21.7% and 7.8%, respectively, but neither was anything great. Scott is a good defensive outfielder who projects to be a center fielder. But he is a former first-round pick, so there is some talent there. He also looked decent in 2021. Even if he ends up as a 4th outfielder, he should be a decent one.

Sergio Campana (.656 OPS, .318 wOBA, 95 wRC+), Jauri Custodio (.978 OPS, .458 wOBA, 169 wRC+), Fabricio Macias (.702 OPS, .309 wOBA, 88 wRC+), Yoyner Fajardo (.700 OPS, .327 wOBA, 96 wRC+), and Jack Herman (.623 OPS, .293 wOBA, 75 wRC+) are the rest of the Rule 5 eligible outfielders. Campana is certainly the most intriguing. He’s one of the fastest minor leaguers and is arguably the best defensive outfield prospect the Pirates have in their system. He also draws a decent amount of walks and had a 121 wRC+ and a .164 isolated slugging percentage in the second half. But he strikes out a ton. Even though he hasn’t reached Greensboro yet, it would be interesting to see a team take a chance on him and put him in a Billy Hamilton-esque, pinch runner/defensive replacement role. He has way more power than Hamilton, but strikeouts way more often than the Pirate-killing veteran speester.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Burrows significantly climbed the prospect rankings over the last year. Burrows’ 4.01 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP are a bit misleading. Burrows absolutely imploded in his very last start of the year. Leading up to that last start, Burrows had a 3.46 ERA, 3.11 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP. He struck out 28.8% of the batters he faced with a quality 7.8% walk rate. Burrows continued his home run suppression with a 0.67 HR/9 rate. Burrows’ fastball and curveball have always been outstanding, but his change-up has come a long way to be a very usable offering.

Cody Bolton had a nice comeback campaign after not pitching in 2020 and missing 2021 due to injuries. Bolton had a 3.09 ERA, 3.81 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP in 75.2 innings. The right-hander allowed just four home runs all year while striking out 25.4% of the batters he faced. But he also dished out free passes to 12.4% of the batters he faced. Bolton pitched solely out of the rotation up until this year. He still made 14 starts but also had 16 appearances out of the bullpen.

Like Bolton, the Pirates aren’t 100% sure as to what role J.C. Flowers will play in the future. Flowers enjoyed a solid season at Altoona, in which he had a 2.88 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP. He also did a lot better in the summer, offering up a 2.61 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 1.03 WHIP through his last 38 innings of the year. Flowers struck out 27.3% of the batters he faced in that time and posted a 0.47 HR/9 and 9.1 walk rate. Flowers has the best slider among all Pirates’ prospects and decent velocity. Despite only starting two games, he pitched nearly as many innings as Bolton, with 68.2 total frames.

Many of the other top Pirate pitching prospects are still relatively new to the organization. Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo, Jared Jones, and even Quinn Priester only joined the organization in the last three years. But I think it’s worth separating depth arms from young Low-A prospects.

Drake Fellows, Trey McGough, Omar Cruz, Aaron Shortridge, Domingo Gonzalez, Grant Ford, Adrian Florencio, Santiago Florez, and Braxton Ashcraft may not have very high ceilings but still could contribute as a quality depth arm in the future. Unless a team feels they need another left-hander and select someone like McGough or Cruz, the likeliest to be chosen in the Rule 5 draft here is Florez. He’s a spin-rate darling with mid-90s velocity. Those kinds of pitchers get plenty of attention in the Rule 5 Draft.

On the other hand, you have Enmanuel De Los Santos, Andy Maldonado, Luis Peralta, Joelvis Del Rosario, and Carlos Jimenez as guys who pitched at Low-A or rookie ball in 2022. These guys are all still relatively young and have time to figure things out, and they might eventually become a valuable part of the Pittsburgh Pirates roster.

Relief Pitchers

Tahnaj Thomas is the best relief prospect the Pirates have to offer. He fully transitioned to the bullpen this year and worked to the tune of a 3.02 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP. His peripheral numbers were also decent, with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate, and 0.71 HR/9. Thomas was fully entrenched in the role by the time summer rolled around. From June through the end of the season, Thomas owned a 2.10 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and 1.03 WHIP. He had a strong 27.7% K-rate, along with a 7.3% walk rate. Thomas surrendered just two home runs in his final 34.1 innings of work.

Thomas has always thrown hard, averaging out in the upper-90s. He also throws a plus slider, but the question has always been if he could ever develop the third pitch he needed to become a starter. But in a relief role, his fastball/slider combo is much more effective. With a much better walk rate, he looks to make a name for himself in 2023.

One last relief prospect worth diving into is Colin Selby. Selby was the owner of a 2.20 ERA, 2.59 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP at Altoona. He may have had a mediocre 10.1% walk rate, but he struck out nearly 30% of the batters he faced with a 29.7% strikeout rate. His 53.8% ground ball rate helped him allow just one home run across 32.2 innings. Selby throws a nice curveball and was hitting the upper-90s at the Arizona Fall League. Selby has become quite the underrated relief prospect who could force himself into the Pittsburgh Pirates future plans.

Other than Selby and Thomas, the Pirates have Hunter Stratton, Joe Jacques, Travis MacGregor, Noe Toribio, Osvaldo Bido, Ricky DeVito, Cameron Junker, Jeffrey Passantino, Enmanuel Mejia, Will Kobos, Cristian Charle, Eddy Yean, Wilkin Ramos, Michell Miliano, Dante Mendoza, and Jake Sweeney. There’s definitely a chance the Pirates lose someone like Yean, Mejia, or DeVito. They might not be high-end prospects, but they have a prototypical Rule 5 Draft pitcher skillset. All three are high-risk/high-reward with good velocity or breaking offerings but have lacked consistent command, which has been the main point of their struggles.