Rum Bunter’s Top Ten Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: End of 2022

The Pittsburgh Pirates still have quite a strong farm system even after graduating many top prospects, but who are our top 10?

At the start and end of every season, I enjoy putting together a top 10 Pittsburgh Pirates prospect list based on our staff writers’ opinions of the system and prospects. The Pirates’ system has changed dramatically over the past few years, meaning our top 10 prospect rankings have varied throughout recent history.

Even after graduating the likes of Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Roansy Contreras, and Rodolfo Castro, the Pirates still have one of the best farm systems in the sport. They’re top five according to FanGraphs rankings. Even if the rebuild is nearing its potential conclusion, you may still see it improve given the amount of high school and international talent the Pirates have added in the past year, like Michael Kennedy, Yordany De Los Santos, Tony Blanco Jr., and Hung Leng Chang.

Before we get into no. 10, let’s first examine a few honorable mentions. These prospects received some votes from our staff writers, but not enough to make it to the top 10 (note that this is not in any specific order).

Infielder Dariel Lopez
Pre-season Ranking: Unranked

Dariel Lopez is coming off a season in which he batted .286/.329/.476 for the Greensboro Grasshoppers. He only walked 5% of the time with a sub-par 25.5% strikeout rate, but he had 19 dingers in 420 plate appearances. He also had a strong summer in which he posted a .859 OPS, .382 wOBA, and 131 wRC+ from June through the end of the season. Lopez mostly played third base but saw time at shortstop and second base. However, most project his future to be first base, given his poor range.

Outfielder Rodolfo Nolasco
Pre-season Ranking: Unranked

Rodolfo Nolasco batted .239/.330/.425 with a .351 wOBA, and 116 wRC+ for A-Ball Bradenton. Although those weren’t the best numbers ever, he also started the year off ice-cold. Through the end of May, he had just a .584 OPS, .279 wOBA, and 70 wRC+. But from June through the end of the year, he put up a .940 OPS, .424 wOBA, and 163 wRC+. The downside is that the good production came with a 35.2% strikeout rate, but he also walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances. Nolasco isn’t the best fielder the Pirates have to offer, but he holds his own in the corner outfield and has displayed an above-average arm.

Pitcher Jared Jones
Pre-season Ranking: Unranked (honorable mention)

Jared Jones is coming off a poor campaign with the Grasshoppers. He posted a 4.62 ERA, 4.85 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP this year in 122.2 innings of work. The right-hander did have a quality 26.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate, but he surrendered home runs at a 1.39-per-9 pace. But Jones did have a solid campaign in 2021 in which he had a 3.91 FIP and 3.75 xFIP, and he still has one of the highest ceilings among the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospects. He’s displayed four offerings with average or better potential and regularly works in the upper-90s.

Pitcher Michael Kennedy
Pre-season Ranking: Unranked (was not part of organization yet)

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Michael Kennedy as an over slot pick in the 2022 draft. Kennedy was one of the best high school southpaws, but fell to the Pirates in the fourth round because of a commitment to LSU. The lefty signed for $1 million, which was about $445K over slot. Kennedy throws a fastball, slider, and change-up. Despite being one of the youngest players in the draft, he’s already regularly working in the 90-94 MPH range. He also projects to have plus-plus command.

With that all out of the way, who do we have as our top 10 Pittsburgh Pirates prospects?

Number Ten – Liover Peguero
Pre-season Ranking: #6

Coming in at number ten and the first prospect we’ll delve deep into, we have shortstop Liover Peguero. The Pirates acquired Peguero in the Starling Marte trade in the 2019-2020 offseason. Peguero was the headliner of the deal and has steadily climbed prospect boards since arriving at his new organization, but stalled out a bit this year. Though that doesn’t mean he isn’t going to become a capable player in the future.

Last season, Peguero batted for an impoverish .259/.308/.387 with a .306 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Although Peguero only struck out at a 21.3% rate, he drew walks in just 5.6% of his total plate appearances. On the plus side, he swiped 28 bases in 34 attempts and hit double-digit home runs for the second season in a row.

Peguero made his major league debut but only played one game before the team optioned him back to Double-A Altoona. Through the first two-and-a-half months of the season, Peguero had a quality .784 OPS, .340 wOBA, and 110 wRC+. That was before he was promoted, and after he was optioned, he managed a poor .608 OPS, .277 wOBA, and 69 wRC+. While Peguero did poorly overall at Altoona this year, you have to remember he was in just his age-21 season. The average age of pitchers at his level was 24.5 years of age.

Peguero still projects to be a similar player to Philadelphia Phillie middle infielder Jean Segura, a guy who hits for a decent average, gets on base at a healthy rate, and can provide 20+ stolen bases a season. He might not have upper-deck power, but he can blast upwards of 12-15 home runs a season, and he’ll surely rack up plenty of doubles. Peguero made some errors last season, but it’s not to a worrying degree just yet. He has shown the skill set to be a shortstop in the long run.

Number Nine – RHP Mike Burrows
Pre-season Ranking: Unranked (honorable mention)

Next at number nine is right-hander Mike Burrows. Burrows made massive strides in his 2021 and 2022 seasons. He went from a reliever’s outlook to one of the Pirates’ best pitching prospects. Burrows reached Triple-A in 2022, so look for him to work his way into the Pirates’ starting rotation sometime in the first half of the 2023 season.

Between Altoona and Indy, Burrows posted a 4.01 ERA but a healthy 3.29 FIP and 1.21 WHIP across 94.1 innings of work. Burrows led Pirates minor league starters in strikeout rate at 28.2% while carrying a 7.9% walk rate. He also only allowed eight home runs for a .76 HR/9 rate.

Burrows’ numbers are inflated by his last start of the season, in which he allowed six earned runs on one home run, and a walk, in just two-thirds of an inning. That one start made up nearly 15% of the total earned runs he allowed all year. Before that one outing, he had a 3.46 ERA, 3.11 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP.

Burrows has always shown a good fastball/curveball combo. His four-seamer averages out in the 94-96 MPH range with a ton of spin. He usually sits around 2500 RPM, making it one of the best fastballs in the Pirates’ system. His curveball is one of the best the minor leagues have to offer, with upwards of 3000 RPM of spin, making it one of the highest spin curves in the sport. Then there’s his changeup, which has come a long way from being a work-in-progress at best to an offering with some reliability. It also helps his command has improved.

The 2023 campaign will be the right-hander’s age-23 season. He has significantly climbed prospect boards over the past year, and he should continue to rise next season. By the end of the year, Burrows may potentially be one of the Pirates’ better starting pitching options.

Number Eight – LHP Anthony Solometo
Pre-season Ranking: #8

The number eight spot belongs to Anthony Solometo. The Pittsburgh Pirates selected Solomet as an overslot pick in the 2021 draft, and he’s far from the last 2021 draft pick you’ll see here today. Solometo was projected as a mid-to-late-first rounder but fell to the Pirates at the 37th overall selection because of his college commitment.

Solometo made his professional debut in 2022, pitching a total of 47.2 innings for A-Ball Bradenton. The southpaw worked to the tune of a quality 2.64 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP. Solometo posted a 27.1% strikeout rate, and while he did have a 10.1% walk rate, it isn’t entirely reflective of his ability to locate the ball. He also did not allow a home run, inducing ground balls 50.9% of the time.

Solometo is known for two things: his command and his deceptive delivery and wind-up. The left-hander from Bishop Eustace was arguably the second-best command pitcher in the 2021 draft, only behind former Pirate draftee and now Oakland Athletics prospect Gunnar Hoglund. Solometo’s wind-up includes a high leg kick that has drawn comparisons to Dontrell Willis and Mackenzie Gore and an arm slot to Madison Bumgarner.

Solometo typically throws in the low-90s but has hit 95 MPH before. He also throws a slider, slurve, and change-up. His arm slot allows movement and deception for all four pitches. 2023 will be the southpaw’s age-20 campaign, but given how he performed at Bradenton, there’s a pretty good chance he starts the year with Greensboro. I wouldn’t completely rule out a late-season debut at Altoona, which would be pretty impressive for Solometo.

Number Seven – 2B/SS Nick Gonzales
Pre-season Ranking: #3

At number seven, we have second base prospect Nick Gonzales. Gonzales fell some from the pre-season, but mainly to no direct fault of his own. He still had a good season, including a strong second half with Altoona, and projects to eventually take over the keystone sometime in the next year for the Pirates.

Gonzales finished out the 2022 season with a .264/.382/.429 triple-slash line. Gonzales only hit seven home runs in 316 plate appearances but also drew walks at a 13.6% rate. The downside is that it came with a 28.5% strikeout rate. But overall, Gonzales still had a quality .811 OPS, .365 wOBA, and 122 wRC+.

Gonzales also got off to a slow start to the campaign. But through his last 211 trips to the plate, the second base prospect had an OPS well over .900 at .927, a wOBA of .405, and a wRC+ clocking in at 153. He struck out in just 23.7% of his plate appearances while still carrying a robust 13.3% walk rate. Once Gonzales came off the injured list in early August, he cut his K% down even further to 22.7%, then again in the year’s final month with a 20.7% strikeout rate.

Altoona played Gonzales at shortstop for 115.1 innings this year, but it’s not a position he’ll see a ton of time at in the major leagues, outside of an occasional spot start. He’s a decent defensive second baseman with more than enough speed to play up the middle. If Gonzales can continue to cut down on the strikeouts, he could be a real National League Rookie of the Year candidate next season.

Number Five – RHP Luis Ortiz
Pre-season Ranking: Unranked

The halfway point belongs to Luis Ortiz. Ortiz has skyrocketed up prospect lists in the past season. FanGraphs ranked Ortiz as the Pirates’ 23rd best prospect but now ranks as their 50th best prospect in all of baseball. Ortiz made his major league debut just one season after he put together a phenomenal A-Ball campaign.

Ortiz’s minor league numbers in 2022 do not seem like the 50th-best prospect in baseball. In 124.1 innings, Ortiz put together a 4.54 ERA, 4.40 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP. He had a healthy 27.1% K-rate and 7.5% walk rate but allowed home runs at a 1.45-per-9 pace. Granted, there was some bad batted-ball luck for Ortiz. He had a strong 47.8% ground ball rate but a home run-to-flyball ratio of 17.4%, leading to a much better 3.75 xFIP.

A strong August led to the Pirates promoting Ortiz to the major leagues. He pitched 16 innings and allowed eight earned runs, but six came in his final outing of the 2022 season. He let up just one home run and struck out 17, but walked ten. The last start of his year really threw a wrench into his small sample size, but what was more important was what he displayed on the mound.

Ortiz was hitting 100 MPH regularly while throwing a slider with nearly 35 inches of vertical movement. His change-up was thrown just 14 times, but it served its purpose. A third pitch has always been a question mark for Ortiz, but his slider and fastball are elite, so even if his change-up tops out as an average or slightly below average third pitch, he should be able to get the job done, even as a starter.

Ortiz will be heading into his age-24 season in 2023. The Pittsburgh Pirates may start the flame throwing right-hander in the major leagues as part of their starting rotation. If he doesn’t, he’ll surely be the first to get called up if one of their starters struggles to start the year or gets injured. Rarely do you find a starting pitcher who can pump the kind of heat Ortiz does, and hopefully, the Pirates leave him in the rotation until he proves otherwise.

Number Four – RHP Quinn Priester
Pre-season Ranking: #4

Quinn Priester comes in as our best pitching prospect in the Pirates’ organization. Priester was a 2019 first-round pick by the Bucs and has proved to be a good selection. Preister made his way to Triple-A in 2022, so he’ll surely be on the docket for his major league debut sometime next season.

Priester was injured for the first two months of the season. But after he returned, he picked up where he left off last season. After a few rehab starts, the talented right-hander was back in action at Double-A Altoona. He tossed 75.1 innings, working to the tune of a 2.87 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP. Priester’s strong suit has always been preventing the home run, and he continued that this season. He allowed just four home runs while inducing ground balls 51% of the time. He also had a remarkable 7.1% walk rate and a solid 24% strikeout rate.

Priester made two starts at Triple-A. The first was great, striking out six and allowing two free passes and two hits in five innings of work. The second one lasted just 4.1 innings, allowing four earned runs on five walks and a home run. Two of his last three starts were very un-Priester-like. The other start was his final Altoona outing, where he allowed seven earned runs in just 3.2 innings. But those are just two starts among a handful of quality outings.

Priester has a wide array of pitches, including a two-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, change-up, and slider. Priester usually works in the 95-96 MPH range, throwing the pitch with sink. His curveball is arguably one of the best in the minor leagues, and his cutter allows him to get a ton of ground balls. But his change-up is far from a reliable offering. Still, with the amount of solid pitches he has, his change-up not panning out isn’t a massive issue.

Priester has the stuff to be a high-end no. 2 starter/low-end no. 1 starter and rotation anchor for the Pirates in the long run. He’ll only be 22 for nearly all of the 2023 season (he turns 23 on September 15), and if he stays healthy for the first month of 2023, you’ll see him make some starts in May.

Number Three – Catcher Endy Rodriguez
Pre-season ranking: #10

Endy Rodriguez has done nothing but hit since arriving at the Pittsburgh Pirates. After being traded from the New York Mets in the three-team deal that sent Joe Musgrove to the San Diego Padres, Rodriguez has posted an unbelievable .949 OPS, .423 wOBA, and 155 wRC+. Those are MVP numbers. He did great in 2021 but did even better in 2022.

On the season, Rodriguez slashed .323/.407/.590 with 25 dingers in 531 plate appearances. With an 11.3% walk rate and 19% K-rate, it was the fourth season in a row Rodriguez posted a sub-20% strikeout rate and 10%+ walk rate. He also had a fantastic .266 isolated slugging percentage. Between his ability to reach base, hit for contact, and hit for power, Rodriguez finished off the year with a .434 wOBA and 166 wRC+.

Believe it or not, but those numbers lowball Rodriguez. From May through the end of the season, Rodriguez batted .339/.429/.632 with a .458 wOBA and 182 wRC+. After the All-Star Break, Rodriguez slashed .392/.470/.758 with a .516 wOBA and 222 wRC+. When Barry Bonds set the single-season home run record, he had a 235 wRC+, meaning the difference between Bonds in ’01 and Rodriguez in the second half of this year was just a 13% difference.

Rodriguez has displayed a sound glove behind the dish. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, but it’s good enough for a catcher. Rodriguez is also quite versatile. He can play corner outfield, first base and even saw time at second base this season. But he is a catcher by trade, so that is likely the position you’ll see him at the most.

The only real knock on Rodriguez is that he does not have a ton of raw power. But he has put up an ISO of .230 throughout his minor league career and over .260 this past season. Even if he’s never a 30 home run hitter, he averages nearly 41 doubles and 21 home runs a season (600 plate appearance average). 35-40 doubles and 15-20 home runs from your catcher is more than enough power to suffice.

Rodriguez reached Triple-A last year and put up a 208 wRC+ in 23 plate appearances. At this point, he’s banging on the major league doorstep. It honestly wouldn’t be a major surprise if Rodriguez started the season out with the major league team. Even if he doesn’t, he’ll likely be the team’s starting backstop by mid-May at the latest.

Number Two – Catcher Henry Davis
Pre-season Ranking: #2

The first overall pick and the Pirates’ first-rounder of the 2021 draft, Henry Davis, comes in at #2. The third pick from the ’21 draft we’ll examine today, Davis was an under-slot pick out of necessity for the team to sign both Chandler, Solometo, and other overslot picks like Lonnie White Jr. and Braylon Bishop. Davis has some of the best power potential in the system, and from behind the plate, no less.

Davis missed some time last year, collecting just a grand total of 255 plate appearances. But when he was healthy, he performed well. He batted .264/.380/.472 with a .385 wOBA, and 136 wRC+. Davis hit for his fair share of power, crushing ten home runs while posting a .208 isolated slugging percentage. Both his 8.2% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate were above average as well.

Davis missed time because 20 pitches hit him. He missed the second half of May and the first week of June, along with nearly all of July and most of August. For reference, since 2015, there have been 28 instances where 20 or more pitches hit a player in a single season in the major leagues. Among those 28 instances, none played fewer than 91 games, and none received fewer than 305 plate appearances.

Davis managed just a 97 wRC+ at Double-A, but it was a small sample size of 136 plate appearances that was hampered by the injuries he sustained from all the HBP’s. It seems like he is back at full strength, though. He is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League and has racked up nine hits in 41 plate appearances, including six extra-base hits (one home run, five doubles). Plus, he’s drawn six walks with just nine Ks. His OPS clocks in at just over one thousand at 1.006, but it wouldn’t be Henry Davis if three more pitches didn’t hit him.

Davis has a cannon of an arm behind the dish but lacks overall defensive prowess. He’s struggled with blocking, allowing nine passed balls in just 370 career innings. The Pittsburgh Pirates let him get a few innings in right field at Altoona, but he may end up seeing some time at first base.

Davis will be fun to watch regardless of where he plays within the next year. He’ll be going into his age-23 season, so his time at Double-A may not be much longer. Davis can potentially be a .280 batter who swats 30+ home runs a season. Even if he has to move out from behind the dish, he still has the chance to be one of the Pittsburgh Pirates best hitters.

Number One – Infielder Termarr Johnson
Pre-season Ranking: Unranked (was not in organization yet)

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ most recent first-round draft pick comes in as our number one prospect. Termarr Johnson was arguably the best pure hitter of the 2022 draft, and the Pittsburgh Pirates got him at the no. 4 pick. Johnson has five-tool potential and the chance to stick at shortstop, though even if he has to move to second base, he will still be a potential all-star and then some.

Johnson was arguably a better overall hitter than either Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday, the two high schoolers who went before Johnson. Johnson was highly praised for his plate discipline and plate vision. MLB Pipeline compared his plate coverage akin to Vlad Guerrero Sr. and his discipline to Wade Boggs. Those are some pretty good comparisons, and he does it with good power potential.

MLB Pipeline projects Johnson to grow into a 60-grade power hitter. FanGraphs also gives him a 60-future raw power grade. There’s a real chance of a .300/.400/.500 hitter within Johnson. On top of that, he has above-average speed, so he could swipe double-digit bags to go along with his power. His long-term home may end up being second base. Johnson doesn’t struggle to make plays at shortstop, but he has so-so range and a mediocre arm for the position. But MLB Pipeline projects him to be an above-average second base defender.

Johnson made his professional debut and batted a solid .222/.366/.365 with a .351 wOBA and 114 wRC+ in the small sample size. He did a lot better when he got moved from the Pittsburgh Pirates Florida Complex League affiliate to Bradenton, seeing his OPS rise to .846, his wOBA climb to .387, and his wRC+ jump to 139.

Johnson will turn 19 on June 11, so he’ll still be relatively young for A-Ball next year. But if he can play anything like his potential says he can, don’t be surprised if Johnson debuts at Greensboro by the end of the season. Johnson was arguably more talented than the prospects who were drafted ahead of him but was ranked lower because he doesn’t profile as a center fielder or shortstop.