Underrated Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects to Protect From Rule 5 Draft

Although these five prospects may not be the Pittsburgh Pirates’ best, they’re certaintly underrated and deserve a 40-man roster spot.

The Pittsburgh Pirates got somewhat lucky during last off-season. Because of the lockout, the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft was postponed. The Pirates had protected a few notable prospects like Travis Swaggerty and Liover Peguero, but ran the risk of losing prospects like Cal Mitchell and Tahnaj Thomas.

In all likelihood, the Rule 5 Draft will not be postponed during this year’s off-season. There is no lockout this year and unless a new pandemic or a massive wave of COVID cripples the world once again, the Rule 5 draft looks to go on as planned. Of course, the Pirates will make room on the 40-man roster for the easy calls like Endy Rodriguez, Malcolm Nunez, and Mike Burrows, but there are plenty of underrated names the Pirates need to protect.

The team could easily make the roster space for these prospects too. Currently, the likes of Yohan Ramirez, Jeremey Beasley, Junior Fernandez, Eric Stout, Peter Solomon, Zack Collins, and Ali Sanchez are still on the 40-man. Duane Underwood Jr. could be a potential non-tender candidate and Kevin Newman will likely be on the trading block.

Tahnaj Thomas

Had it not been for the Rule 5 Draft postponement in the 2021-2022 off-season, it’s very likely that Tahnaj Thomas would have been selected then. Thomas fit the mold of a Rule 5 draft prospect. Although he was coming off a rough season, Thomas displayed some very good raw stuff. Now that Thomas had a good 2022 season, the Pirates have to seriously consider protecting Thomas.

Thomas made the move to the bullpen this year with Double-A Altoona. In 50.2 innings, Thomas posted a 3.02 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP. Thomas struck out 24.4% of the batters he faced with a solid 9.4% walk rate and 0.71 HR/9 rate. Thomas had always projected as a bullpen arm, and the move full time significantly helped him.

But it took Thomas a while to settle into his new role. He didn’t have a great April and May, but by June, he had figured things out. In his final 36.1 innings of the season, Thomas worked to the tune of a 1.98 ERA, 2.70 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP. Thomas’ strikeout rate sat slightly below 30% at 28.5%, but more importantly, he only walked 6.9% of the batters he faced and allowed just two round trippers.

Thomas throws hard, hitting 100 MPH regularly. He also throws a solid breaking slider, which is a second above average offering. Thomas has always displayed the talent to be a good pitcher, but just needed to find the right role. The Pittsburgh Pirates do not have much in the way of their bullpen, and seeing Thomas next season would be an exciting addition.

Blake Sabol

When you think of catching prospects in the Pirate system, you probably think of Endy Rodriguez or Henry Davis. Both are great players, but Blake Sabol has hit well throughout his professional career and had a fantastic 2022 season. Even if he isn’t the best defender, the Pirates could find somewhere to play him, whether that be designated hitter, first base, or a corner outfield spot.

Last season, Sabol batted .284/.363/.497. Through 513 plate appearances, Sabol smacked 19 home runs while having a .213 isolated slugging percentage. Sabol’s 25.1% strikeout rate wasn’t great, but he had just a 21.8% strikeout rate with Triple-A Indy and a 22.5% strikeout percentage after the All-Star break. Overall, Sabol had a .373 wOBA and 131 wRC+ between Altoona and Indy.

The promotion to Triple-A did not phase the catching prospect. In his final 101 plate appearances of the season, Sabol posted a .969 OPS, .424 wOBA, and 158 wRC+. Although it was a much larger sample size, he only had a .833 OPS, .361 wOBA, and 124 wRC+ for Altoona. Along with cutting down his strikeout rate, he also upped his walk rate from an already healthy 9.2% at Altoona to 16.8% with the Pirate Triple-A affiliate team.

Sabol mostly spent his time behind the dish, but he also played a fair amount of designated hitter and in the corner outfield spots. Sabol’s future is likely not behind the dish. He’s a mediocre defender with a weak arm. He’s also just a 30-grade runner, so the outfield isn’t a preferable destination either.

Sabol saw a lot of games at first base in college, but would need to re-familiarize himself with the position. The last time he played the infield dirt was in 2018 and the last time he played semi-consistently was 2017. The best option would likely be designated hitter with occasional games in left field to best maximize his value and limit the amount of times his defense could be an issue.

With 2023 being Sabol’s age-25 campaign, the Pittsburgh Pirates have the opportunity to let him take the reins at designated hitter to start the year. The team does not have very many other options unless they view Rodolfo Castro as the answer there, but he could open the year at second base instead, so they have options with him. Since the Pirates need an option at DH to start 2023, they should add Sabol to the 40-man roster and let him start the year with the major league team.

J.C. Flowers

J.C. Flowers was selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 4th round of the 2019 draft. The right-hander was an outfielder until his last season at Florida State, but moved to the mound. Flowers reached Double-A Altoona last year, posting solid numbers, but displaying good stuff.

He pitched a total of 68.2 innings, working to the tune of a 2.88 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP. Flowers FIP was a tad high because his strikeout rate was a mediocre 21.8% rate. But he had a solid 8.4% walk rate and allowed home runs at a 0.79-per-9 rate. Flowers was a ground ball machine, posting a 56.8% ground ball rate.

Pretty much every prospect we’ll talk about today had a great summer, and Flowers is no exception. June through the end of the season saw the right-hander put up a 2.61 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 1.03 WHIP. Flowers struck out batters at a much better 27.3% rate while keeping a decent 9.1% walk rate. His HR/9 also decreased to just 0.47 after giving up two home runs in 38 innings of work.

Flowers has the best slider in the Pittsburgh Pirates minor league system. With late break and two-plane shape, it’s truly an elite offering and arguably the best slider in the minor leagues. He pairs that well with a two-seam fastball and four-seam fastball. He typically works in the mid-90s, but tops out at 97 MPH. On top of that, he throws his fastball with above average spin. He’ll also throw a change-up and while it’s the weakest link in his arsenal, it’s still an offering with average potential.

Flowers is highly athletic. After all, he was an outfielder-turned-pitcher, which is a very promising aspect. Flowers’ command may not be his strongest attribute, but he is still fairly inexperienced as a pitcher. There’s a chance for a starting pitcher within Flowers. Altoona almost exclusively used Flowers out of the pen in 2022, but they threw him out there for three or more innings almost as often as they put him in for just a single inning or less.

You would be hard pressed to find a big league team who wouldn’t take a guy with a mid-90s fastball, an elite slider, center field athleticism but on the mound, and a potential chance to be a starting pitcher essentially for free. Flowers, regardless if he is a starter or reliever in the long run, would probably be one of the first players in the draft selected if left unprotected. Flowers is arguably the Pirates’ most underrated pitching prospect, and needs to be treated as such.

Matt Gorski

Matt Gorski came out of nowhere last season. The outfield prospect put up pedestrian numbers in 2021. Although he had 17 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a .193 isolated slugging percentage, Gorski managed a poor .710 OPS, .309 wOBA, and 89 wRC+ while striking out 31.2% of the time. The expectations for Gorski were not extremely high entering 2022, but he was unbelievably good when he was healthy.

Through 326 plate appearances, Gorski batted .280/.358/.598 with a .411 wOBA, and 153 wRC+. Gorski demolished an impressive 24 home runs. Remember, he hit 17 last season in 401 trips to the dish, and he topped that by seven in 75 fewer PAs. On top of that, he raised his walk rate to 10.2% from 8.9% last season). His 28.6% walk rate was also an improvement from 2022, though it wasn’t anything to write home about.

Gorski also swiped 21 bases in 23 attempts. He plays a decent center field, but has experience in both outfield corners, and first base. His future is definitely in the outfield, but it’s nice having the option to slide him over at first. But Gorski has a strong outfield arm, and it would be a waste to send him to first base full time.

Gorski was injured for a good portion of the season, suffering a quadriceps strain. But it was still a good season for the outfield prospect. Nobody expected him to post a slugging percentage approaching .600 or ISO well over .300, but he did just that in 2022. Gorski will also be heading into his age-25 campaign. With the power to hit 20+ home runs and the speed to steal 20+ bases, along with the ability to man center field, Gorski is a guy the Pirates need to protect. He has swing-and-miss concern, but any team would overlook that to get their hands on Gorski in the Rule 5 Draft.