Pittsburgh Pirates: Projected 40-Man Roster After Protecting Players From Rule 5 Draft

The Pittsburgh Pirates will have to make a handful of choices when it comes to the Rule 5 Draft, but this is how Rum Bunter staff writer Noah Wright would construct the 40-man roster

The Pittsburgh Pirates will face a handful of 40-man roster decisions for this upcoming off-season. The Bucs have a ton of notable Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects, and they’ll need to protect as many as possible. They were able to get away with it the last off-season because of the lockout. However, they won’t have that luxury this winter.

Based on what the Pirates currently have on the 40-man roster and who they need to protect, this is who I would add and subtract from the roster. There are plenty of top prospects and some who fly under the radar; however, a ton of roster moves need to be made this off-season.

Additions

There are at least three apparent additions. The first is Endy Rodriguez. No way the Pirates leave Rodriguez unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft, especially after the season he had and how good he looked at Triple-A at the end of last season.

The second is Malcom Nuñez. While first base type prospects are not usually picked in the Rule 5 Draft, Nuñez had a fantastic second half that saw him post a 142 wRC+ and reach Triple-A, where he looked like a quality batter. On top of that, the Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t about to lose a prospect they just acquired less than six months ago.

The last is Mike Burrows. While Burrows may not have been as good at Triple-A Indy as he was at Double-A, he’d be selected if the Pittsburgh Pirates left him unprotected. Given he’s one of the system’s better pitching prospects, he’s a no-brainer for a 40-man spot.

Matt Gorski also seems like a decent candidate for a 40-man spot. The outfield prospect followed up a mediocre 2021 season by posting a .318 isolated slugging percentage and 153 wRC+ this season. Sure he had a poor 28.6% strikeout rate, but the fact he can play center field and has the rare power-speed combo, he should be high on the Pirate priority list.

Jared Triolo also seems like he could be higher on the team’s roster priority. For the third season in a row, Triolo had a wRC+ of at least 110 and a sub-20% strikeout rate. Triolo also had a great summer, seeing him post a 140 wRC+ and .194 ISO. Given that he is a great defensive third baseman and can play both shortstop and center field, he’s someone the Pirates need to consider heavily.

Blake Sabol is another position player I would opt to protect. Last season, Sabol had a 131 wRC+ between Double-A and Triple-A. He also had a 158 wRC+ with Triple-A Indy and cut his strikeout rate down by 4.2%. Sabol is versatile, playing behind the plate and left field, and he could also likely play first base if asked to, which is a position the Pirates desperately need help at.

There are two pitchers I would protect. The first is Tahnaj Thomas. Thomas is coming off a quality season for Double-A Altoona in which he had a 1.98 ERA, 2.70 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP from June through the end of the season. J.C. Flowers also had strong numbers when the weather started to heat up, with a 2.61 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 1.03 WHIP through his final 38 frames of the season. Both pitched their entire seasons at Double-A Altoona, and given their skillsets, they’d likely be picked up in the Rule 5 Draft.

Subtractions

Let’s look at some easy calls first. Junior Fernández, Jeremy Beasley, Eric Stout, Peter Solomon, and Beau Sulser are hanging onto a roster spot by a thread. While Yohan Ramirez didn’t do terrible, he also didn’t do well enough to earn a roster spot over the prospects who are more deserving of his spot. Junior Fernandez may average out in the high-90s, but he also has a career 14% walk rate in 54 major league innings.

Nick Mears is a reasonably notable potential subtraction from the 40-man. It wasn’t that long ago Mears was considered the Pirates’ best relief pitching prospect. However, multiple injuries and a lack of improving command have not helped the right-hander. He has decent stuff, but his inability to locate gets in the way more often than not. Like Fernandez, it’s not a lack of stuff but a severe lack of location.

Duane Underwood Jr. is the Pittsburgh Pirates likeliest non-tender candidate. The reliever posted a mediocre 4.40 ERA and 1.448 WHIP. Don’t be fooled by his 2.92 FIP, as the right-hander had a 3.91 xFIP. Underwood struggled in the second half of the season, and while he has decent stuff, he’s been too inconsistent to prioritize him over another pitching prospect.

On the position player side of things, the Pirates will likely DFA at least one of, if not both, Ali Sanchez and Zack Collins. If the Pirates protect Sabol and Rodriguez, both Sanchez and Collins will not hold onto 40-man roster spots.

There’s also a decent chance the Pittsburgh Pirates will trade Kevin Newman this off-season. The infielder is coming off a solid, albeit unimpressive, season in which he batted just .274/.316/.372 with a .303 wOBA and 94 wRC+. He provided roughly average defense at second base and shortstop, combining for -2 defensive runs saved but zero outs above average. The second base free agent market is bare bones thin, so the Pirates might be able to find a team in need of 2B depth willing to trade for Newman.

In total, that’s eleven total roster spots the Pirates could clear. At least eight depth players will almost certainly not make it through the roster crunch. If the Pirates are looking to shop Newman, they’ll probably do it before the deadline to finalize 40-man rosters so they can open up another spot.

Notable Exclusions

The most significant exclusion I have is Cody Bolton. Bolton is coming off a decent but worrying 2022 campaign. After not pitching competitively in 2020 or 2021, Bolton rebounded in ‘22, working to the tune of a 3.09 ERA, 3.81 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP. While Bolton did have a quality 25.4% K-rate and .48 HR/9, he also walked 12.4% of the batters he faced and had a 4.85 xFIP. The Pirates could try and find a trade partner for Bolton if they feel they can get something out of him instead of exposing him to the draft.

Abrahan Gutierrez is the next notable omission I have. The catching prospect was acquired at the 2021 trade deadline and posted good numbers in 2022. Through 441 plate appearances, Gutierrez slashed .257/.356/.411 with a .353 wOBA and 113 wRC+. While his 25.4% strikeout rate and .154 isolated slugging percentage were nothing to brag about, the backstop also walked 11.8% of the time and had a 132 wRC+ in the second half. Like Bolton, the Pirates might be able to find a trade partner before the Rule 5 draft.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a handful of pitching prospects they’ll likely leave unprotected, like Ricky DeVito, Eddy Yean, and Santiago Florez. All three have good stuff but have struggled dramatically with command and performance on the mound. They’re a Rule 5 archetype pitcher, but the Pirates likely aren’t losing much if one gets selected.

The Pirates do not have many other position players I consider notable exclusions. Rodolfo Nolasco is the closest, but with no playing time above A-Ball, the chances he is selected are slim to none. Matt Fraizer is the most notable unprotected prospect I have projected, but he is coming off a rough 2022 campaign at Double-A.