Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Five Set for MLB Breakout in 2023

The Pittsburgh Pirates should see these five top prospects become regular fixutres on the roster in 2023

Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates saw nine prospects graduate prospect status. Those eight included Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro, Roansy Contreras, Tucupita Marcano, Diego Castillo, Yerry De Los Santos, Cal Mitchell, and Miguel Yajure. Not only did the Pirates see a handful of prospects graduate prospect status, but many others debuted, like Luis Ortiz, Ji-Hwan Bae, Colin Holderman, Travis Swaggerty, and Liover Peguero.

The light at the end of the tunnel of this rebuild is getting brighter, even if the overall record may not fully reflect it. The Pirates should see more graduate prospect status and not just the names that debuted at the end of 2023. The team also debuted a handful of prospects at Triple-A at the end of the season, putting them on a fast track to the major leagues next season.

By the end of the year, the Pirates should have seen these players appear in enough games to graduate prospect status. Today, I want to identify five prospects who could become not only regular fixtures of the roster but also potential Rookie of the Year candidates.

Malcom Nunez

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Malcom Nunez at the 2022 trade deadline when they sent Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton to the St. Louis Cardinals. Nunez was part of a two-player package that also included right-hander Johan Oviedo. Nunez will join Oviedo in the major leagues next season and could be his first baseman.

Nunez did well with the Pirates. The first base prospect only collected 143 plate appearances with the Pirate Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, but he hit .280/.385/.475 with a .378 wOBA and 135 wRC+. Nunez had a solid 22.4% strikeout rate with a phenomenal 14.7% walk rate. The slugger hit six long balls for their two affiliates while having a .195 isolated slugging percentage.

Nunez only collected 17 plate appearances at Triple-A and only had three hits with five strikeouts, but he also walked four times and hit a home run. It was a microscopic sample size, so take it with a grain of salt, but he looked decent at Indy for the few chances he received before the 2022 minor league season came to a close.

Overall, Nunez had a nice run for the Pirates last year, but it’s not as if he did poorly for the Cardinal Double-A affiliate. Overall from June through the end of the year, Nunez had an impressive .913 OPS, .396 wOBA, and 136 wRC+. Nunez will only be in his age-22 campaign next year, and while that is young for a guy to make it to the major leagues, the Pirates don’t have much in the way at first base either.

Mike Burrows

Mike Burrows has become one of the Pittsburgh Pirates better pitching prospects. Since selecting him in the 11th round of the 2018 draft, the high-spin right-hander has developed into a fine pitching prospect and a potential major-league arm. Last year, Burrows posted solid results and looks to make an impact on the major league team in 2023.

Burrows started the year off with Altoona, where he owned a 2.94 ERA, 2.72 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP in 52 innings of work. Burrows struck out well over 30% of the batters he faced with a 32.4% K%, and while his 8.9% walk rate may not have been among the best, it was still solid. He paired that with a strong 0.52 HR/9.

Burrows’ numbers at Indy were not as pretty, as he had a 5.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Some bad luck was a factor in Burrows’ struggles. Opponents had a .333 batting average on balls in play vs. the right-hander compared to a much more reasonable .292 with Altoona, and he only walked 6.7% of the batters he squared off against. His K% may have fallen to 23.3%, his HR/9 rose to 1.06, and he tanked in his last start. He had a much prettier 4.10 ERA, 3.60 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP before surrendering six earned runs in just two-thirds of an inning on September 28th. Overall, there were plenty of signs that Burrows pitched better than his final line says.

Burrows throws in the mid-90s and with a ton of spin, averaging out with about 2500 RPM and in the 93-96 MPH range. His curveball is also a very high-spin offering with 3000 RPM. His change-up has always been questionable, but over the past two seasons, it’s looked like a pitch he can rely on semi-regularly, giving him two plus-plus offerings and a third average pitch.

Burrows showed he is ready for a major league debut next season. While his bottom line numbers may not have been the best, there’s more than enough evidence to show that one start and some lousy luck inflated what was overall a decent season on the mound.

Endy Rodriguez

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Endy Rodriguez in the Joe Musgrove swap. In his first season with his new organization, Rodriguez managed an OPS approaching .900 and a wRC+ of 140. It might be hard to top that, but the switch-hitting backstop found a way to top it and skyrocket through the farm system.

Rodriguez appeared at three levels of the minor leagues, including High-A Greensboro, Double-A Altoona, and Triple-A Indianapolis. Between these three levels, Rodriguez batted .323/.407/.590. Despite power not being Rodriguez’s strong suit, he still clobbered 25 home runs and had a .266 isolated slugging percentage. But Rodriguez’s calling card is his plate discipline. He only struck out 19% of the time while drawing a walk in 11.3% of his plate appearances. This marks the fourth season in a row Rodriguez has had a sub-20% K% and 10%+ walk rate. Overall, Rodriguez finished out 2022 with a .434 wOBA and 166 wRC+.

It’s hard to believe, but his overall season numbers low-ball the switch-hitting backstop. From the start of May through the end of the year, Rodriguez slashed .339/.429/.632 with a .458 wOBA and 182 wRC+. His walk rate was an even better 12.6%, and his strikeout rate sat at 16.8%. The second half of 2022 paints Rodriguez in an even better light, which seems impossible. In his last 219 trips to the plate in 2022, Rodriguez was nearly hitting .400 at .392 with a .470 on-base percentage and .758 slugging percentage. His wRC+ was well over 200 at 222. You read that correctly, 222, meaning he was 122% better than the league average hitter. That’s not just good; that’s early-2000s Barry Bonds good.

It also helps that Rodriguez displayed solid defense behind the dish. Catcher is one of many positions Rodriguez can play. He played some second base for the first time in his pro career in ’22 and has ample time spent in left field and first base. The backstop is his primary position, but he can move around if the Pirates need him to.

Rodriguez is one of the most hyped prospects the Pirates have had in a while, possibly even more so than Oneil Cruz. He’s the complete package: he can hit, he can hit for power, and he isn’t a bad defender at multiple positions. Speed may not be his strong suit, but it isn’t for nearly all catchers, and even then, he moves much better than the average catcher.

Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales is the only prospect here that does not have experience at Triple-A. However, given that 2023 will be the second base prospect’s age-24 campaign, he’ll certainly start the year at Indy but also take over second base sometime next season. The Pittsburgh Pirates do not have much in the way of the keystone right now, but Gonzales has all-star potential.

Last year, Gonzales batted .263/.383/.429 through 316 plate appearances. While Gonzales struck out 28.5% of the time, and his isolated slugging percentage fell from .262 last season to .166 last year, he still walked at a fantastic 13.6% rate and overall had a quality 127 wRC+. Another positive is he ended the campaign on a very high note.

Gonzales was on a hot streak before he landed on the injured list in late May and picked things back up when he was healthy. His last 211 plate appearances of the year saw him bat .302/.412/.512 with a .405 wOBA and 153 wRC+. He also improved his strikeout rate to 23.7% and walked at a 13.3% pace. Another positive is that Gonzales improved his walk rate after the injury. After striking out 32.8% of the time in April and May, his post-injury strikeout rate clocked in at just 22.7%. During the last month of his season (August 18th-September 18th), he cut it down even further to just 20.7%.

Gonzales played some shortstop for Altoona, but only sparingly. He’s a second baseman through and through and probably will not see much time, if any, at the other middle infield position in the major leagues. It’s a surprise that Gonzales did not see any time at Triple-A in 2022, given how well he ended the season.