Pittsburgh Pirates: Internal Starting Pitching Options for 2023

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a handful of young starting pitchers, along with plenty of depth for their rotation based on what’s on their rosters.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have plenty of options for their starting rotation for the next season. By the end of the year, their starting pitching staff may be the best in the National League Central. Even if they do not sign a higher-profile free agent, their internal options give plenty of hope for the future.

While it is still early in the offseason and ways away from Spring Training, I want to examine what the Pittsburgh Pirates currently have in stock. Between their major league options with high-end potential, breakout candidates, prospects who are approaching major league readiness, back-of-the-rotation arms, and depth players, there are plenty of starting pitching options for the Bucs to turn to.

Of course, there are only five rotation spots. Even if the Pittsburgh Pirates have the opportunity to roll with a six-man rotation, we’re going to discuss much more than just five or six pitchers today. Take this as a depth chart analysis rather than a ‘which players should be in the rotation’ analysis.

We have a lot of arms to talk about, so let’s get into our first starters.

Young Major League Arms on the Rise

Mitch Keller’s breakout is highly overlooked by many. By the end of the season, he was a top-15 pitcher in the National League. After struggling heavily at the start of the year, Keller changed things up and added a sinker to his arsenal. By the time June rolled around, Keller was favoring his sinkerball over his four-seamer.

From May 25th (the first time he used his sinker often) through the end of the season, Keller owned a 3.20 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP in 123.2 innings. While his strikeout rate of 20.5% was well below the league average, he had a decent 8.7% walk rate and allowed just nine home runs for a .65 HR/9. He induced ground balls 50% of the time with an 88.0 MPH exit velocity, the former in the elite range and the ladder close to average.

Among qualified NL starters in this stretch, Keller had a lower ERA than the likes of Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, and Adam Wainwright. On average, he gave up fewer home runs than ground ball merchants like Chris Bassitt and Kyle Wright. His FIP was also the 16th-best in the NL.

Pairing with Keller at the top of the rotation is Roansy Contreras. A consensus top-100 prospect entering the 2022 campaign, Contreras posted a decent 3.79 ERA and 1.27 WHIP but a mediocre 4.38 FIP. Contreras had a 21.1% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, and 1.23 HR/9. But a good portion of his struggles can be traced back to one start in which he allowed seven earned runs on three home runs in just 1.2 innings. Outside of that one outing, Contreras had a 3.18 ERA and a .94 HR/9 rate.

Contreras’s strikeouts being below the league average wasn’t promising, but you have to remember he was only in his age-22 campaign and just turned 23 earlier this November. Contreras had a tremendous 33.1% strikeout rate at Triple-A and well above average chase and whiff rate (32.5%/top 81st percentile and 27.5%/top 61st percentile, respectively). Contreras should be a fun pitcher to watch next year, and by the end of the season, he could be one of the better pitchers in the league.

Breakout Candidates

The Pittsburgh Pirates only really have one breakout starting pitcher candidate, and that’s Johan Ovideo. The Pirates acquired Oviedo in the José Quintana/Chris Stratton swap. He, alongside Malcom Nunez, made their way over from the St. Louis Cardinals. Oviedo was a former top-10 prospect in the Cards’ system and now will get the opportunity to make regular starts.

Before the Pirates acquired Oviedo, he mainly had worked out of the Cardinals’ bullpen this season, and he made just one start in 14 total appearances. The Pirates moved him directly into their starting five once he was stretched out at Triple-A for a few games, and his results were pretty decent.

Oviedo only started seven games and pitched 30.2 innings, but he allowed just 11 earned runs for a 3.23 ERA. Along with a healthy ERA, he also put up a 54.5% ground ball rate and held opponents to an 88.4 MPH exit velocity. It’s no surprise he allowed just a single home run. Even better was he held opponents to a .198 BA. The two downsides were his 20.9% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate. But like Contreras, Oviedo had a much better 24.4% strikeout rate at Triple-A and struck out 27% or more of the batters he faced in three of his seven starts in Pittsburgh.

The most promising development Ovideo made was throwing harder once he moved into the starting rotation. Oviedo averaged out at 95.6 MPH with his four-seamer 85.9 MPH with his slider during his time in St. Louis. But then he upped that to 96.5 MPH and 86.5 MPH, respectively, with the Bucs. Typically when a pitche goes from the bullpen to the rotation, you see a decrease in velo.

2023 will be the right-hander’s age-25 campaign. It will also be his first shot at getting regular starts at the major league level. Oviedo showed some impressive stuff with the Pirates down the stretch and is arguably Pittsburgh’s most prominent breakout candidate for 2023, regardless of position.

Prospects Who Could Graduate

The highest-profile Pirate pitching prospect is Quinn Priester. The right-hander made it to Triple-A last season, where he made two starts. One was really good, where he pitched five scoreless innings striking out six and allowing five base runners (one hit batter, two hits, two walks), while the other saw him surrender four earned runs in just 4.1 innings while walking five and allowing a home run.

While his last start of the year wasn’t great, it doesn’t derail the overall talent Priester showed at the upper levels of the minor leagues. He mostly pitched for Double-A Altoona, making 15 total appearances/starts. While his 15th start for Altoona was not one to remember, Preister had a 2.13 ERA, 3.09 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP through his first 71.2 innings. This included a 24.1% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and 0.38 HR/9. Priester is a ground ball machine, so it’s no surprise he is a home run suppressant.

Priester has a wide variety of pitches, which helps him keep batters off balance. He’s consistently shown solid command and has put up decent walk rates in the minor leagues. He usually sits 94-96 MPH, but his curveball is elite. Priester could force himself into the major leagues early next season.

If Priester is the Pittsburgh Pirates highest profile starting pitching prospect, then Luis Ortiz isn’t far behind him.

Admittedly, Luis Ortiz’s minor league numbers from this past season do not looke like that of a future star starting pitcher. He had 4.56 ERA, 4.40 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A. While he struck out a healthy number of batters, 27.1% to be exact, with a 7.5% walk rate, he also allowed home runs at a 1.45-per-9 mark. But you also can’t ignore his 2.61 ERA/2.48 FIP from August up until he was promoted to the big leagues, or his 3.75 xFIP. Ortiz gave up his fair share of home runs, but he also suffered from a 17.4% HR/FB ratio. He still had a great 47.8% groundball rate.

Once Ortiz made it to the big leagues, he reeled off 15.1 innings of two earned run baseball with 17 strikeouts. He did allow seven walks, but with an 85.3 MPH exit velocity and 44.4% ground ball rate, 13.5% line-drive rate, Ortiz looked great overall. He crashed-and-burned in his last start of the year, but like with Priester, one start doesn’t make a pitcher. Ortiz was firing 98-100 MPH fastballs with wicked sliders. Even though he rarely threw his change-up, batters didn’t collect a hit off of it in the 14 times he threw it. All three offerings displayed above average movement as well.

Another top prospect starting pitcher who stumbled in his last outings of the 2022 season was Mike Burrows. The right-hander pitched a total of 94.1 innings, but he surrendered six earned runs in the last two-thirds of an inning of his season. While Burrows had a 4.01 ERA overall, his number entering that game was just 3.46. Along with a solid ERA, he had an even better 3.11 FIP and 1.15 WHIP. Burrows owned a 28.8% K%, 7.8% walk rate, and .67 HR/9.

Burrows’ fastball/curveball combo is a deadly one-two punch. He sits around 93-96, but with over 2500 RPM of spin. His curveball can hit 3000 RPM. The question has always been whether his change-up would become a good enough pitch to rely on, and he’s certainly come a long way. Many evaluators have seen major steps forward with it, and it might finally be the third offering he’s needed to succeed.

Kyle Nicolas is a fourth prospect who could become part of the Pirates’ rotation at some point in 2023. The Pirates acquired Nicolas the prior off-season in the Jacob Stallings swap. As one of the three players in the deal, Nicolas showed off a ton of talent for the Pirates, but you wouldn’t have guessed that based on his so-so 3.97 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP. While he struck out over a quarter of the batters he faced with a 25.9% strikeout rate and a 0.89 HR/9, he also had a 12.1% walk rate.

But of those 40 earned runs Nicolas gave up in 90.2 innings, eight of those (20% of which) came all in just one outing. Four of the nine home runs he allowed also were from this game. This one game made up two innings of his season. Nicolas had a 3.25 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and a .51 HR/9 rate outside this one game. Nicolas likely would get more love from fans if he had a low-3 ERA instead of one approaching 4.00.

Nicolas throws in the mid/upper-90s with a wicked slider. His curveball is average at best, which is why some project him eventually moving to the bullpen. It also doesn’t help that he has mediocre command. But I believe he proved he could handle a starting role based on his what he did at Double-A last season.

Among other Pirates’ prospects, Cody Bolton spent his entire season at Triple-A Indy. While there were some red flags, such as a 12.4% walk rate and 4.85 xFIP, he had a decent rebound campaign overall. Bolton had a 3.09 ERA, 3.81 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP in a swing-man role. 2020 competitive balance draft pick Carmen Mlodzinski had an up-and-down season. While he allowed two or fewer earned runs in 18 of his outings, he allowed 4+ ER in five others. It was an inconsistent season for Mlodzinski, but he still could make it to the majors next season as a high-ceiling/low-floor type arm.

Back of the Rotation Candidates

JT Brubaker is arguably their best back-of-the-rotation type arm. While he had a 4.69 ERA, he ran into some bad luck. The right-hander ended the season with a 3.92 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, and 3.97 SIERA. Brubaker saw his walk and strikeout rates move in the wrong direction to 22.8% and 8.4%, respectively, but he limited home runs much better than he did last season. Brubaker’s HR/9 dropped from 2.03 to just 1.06; however, with a 22.4% HR/FB ratio, the only direction his home run rate could have gone is down.

Still, Brubaker changed things up last season, using his sinker a whole lot more often and using his fastball much less frequently. Brubaker might not be an ace, but if he can pitch to his metrics and be a 3.85-3.90 ERA-type pitcher, you could do a lot worse for a #4-#5-type starter. Depending on how other prospects perform, he could move to the bullpen sometime throughout the season.

Things could have gone better for Bryse Wilson last season. In 115.2 innings, Wilson had a 5.52 ERA, 5.06 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP. At one point, Wilson was demoted to Triple-A, and while he did much better there than in the major leagues, the Pirates eventually decided to recall him. After the recall, he had a 4.39 ERA, 4.98 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP. He had a K% of just 15% and allowed home runs at a worryingly high 1.54-per-9 rate. Of the few silver linings, Wilson had a 4.9% walk rate, which, oddly enough, was one of the best in baseball. From July through the end of the year, Wilson’s 4.9% walk rate was the 15th-best among pitchers with 80+ IP.

Wilson did have a 4.46 SIERA and 4.47 xFIP. While those don’t paint a bright picture for the future, they do show he can be a decent up-and-down sixth starter type option for the Pirates. The Pirates likely aren’t banking on Wilson to stay in the rotation all year, or even at the start of the season, but he could move into a long-relief role at some point if other pitchers do not push him off the roster.

The last pitcher to note here is Zach Thompson. Thompson made his way over to Pittsburgh alongside Nicolas. Thompson pitched 121.2 innings, working to a 5.18 ERA, 4.87 FIP, and 1.51 WHIP. Thompson had a 16.6% strikeout rate, but unlike Wilson, he was not elite at limiting walks. Thompson, meanwhile, had an 8.6% walk rate and 1.41 HR/9. But there were some flashes of dominance. From May through mid-July, Thompson owned a 2.57 ERA.

You also can’t ignore his 2021 season. A surprise rookie for the Miami Marlins, Thompson had a 3.24 ERA, 3.69 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP. Thompson was much better at limiting home runs with a .72 HR/9. His average exit velo and hard hit rate sat at 87.6 MPH and 34.4%, which were much worse in 2022. Though his walk rate has yet to get much better or worse compared to 2021, he at least struck out 21% of the batters he faced.

Depth Pieces

The Pittsburgh Pirates have some depth arms who could be called upon in the event there are some injuries or they need a last-minute spot starter. One is Trey McGough, who may have seen the major leagues this year had it not been for injuries. McGough is a soft-tossing southpaw, and while he might consistently post a sub-20% strikeout rate, he has excellent command. While he only pitched 17.2 total frames, McGough allowed one or fewer earned runs in seven of his eight outings. While he allowed three home runs and six total earned runs, all the home runs and five earned runs came in one start.

McGough might be the Pirates’ best depth option. Honestly, he should be in the running for a bullpen spot next year if he is back to full health and the Pirates still need another lefty on the roster. McGough isn’t the only depth lefty worth mentioning. Omar Cruz struggled at Double-A last season but was injured for part of the year.

Overall, he tossed 62.2 innings, pitching to the tune of a 5.03 ERA, 4.90 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP. Cruz had a workable 24.3% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate, but he allowed nine home runs, leading to a 1.29 HR/9 rate. Like McGough, Cruz is a soft tosser, only averaging out at 88-91 MPH. But he does have the positive of a change-up that projects to be plus-plus.

A few other names could be on the Pittsburgh Pirates in case of emergency-break glass list. Aaron Shortridge, Osvaldo Bido, and Zach Matson are definitely last-resort arms. Chances are, this trio will not even see the major leagues. The only way they do see the majors is if the Pirates are playing a team close to their affiliate, or if the Pirates have a dozen injuries. Still, this is a level of depth the Pirates do have in the event of a roster emergency.