Pittsburgh Pirates: Four Noteworthy Underlying 2022 Stats

The Pittsburgh Pirates have plenty of players who could improve next season, and these four could take a step forward because of some promosing underling numbers.

There are plenty of ways to evaluate major league baseball players. In today’s game of baseball, the stuff you typically find on the back of a player’s baseball card aren’t at the forefront of many fan’s minds. There’s plenty of underlying numbers that are becoming much more popular in today’s sport.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have plenty of players who have an underlying number that could help them significantly in 2023. There are ways the Pirates can take advantage of these, as they could have the player adjust or, with new rules, take advantage of something that is now implemented in the game.

Jack Suwisnki – 12.2% barrel rate

Barrel rate is any baseball hit at least 98 MPH and between the 26-30 degree launch angle range. The launch angle range increases every 1.0 MPH added. While exit velocity and hard-hit rate might measure how often a batter hits a ball hard, barrel rate measures how often they make quality contact. Last season, Jack Suwinski had a barrel rate of 12.2%.

Jack Suwinski turned in a respectable year at the dish, slashing .202/.298/.411. The rookie outfielder hit 19 home runs in just 372 plate appearances with a .209 isolated slugging percentage. He was about as close to league average as you can get. Suwinski had a .709 OPS, .311 wOBA, and 100 wRC+, compared to the league average of .706 OPS, .310 wOBA, and 100 wRC+.

Suwinski only had an 88.3 MPH exit velocity and 40.4% hard-hit rate, which, again, were very close to the league average marks of 88.4 MPH and 35.8%. However, what he shined in was barrel rate at 12.2%. This was in the top 86th percentile. There were a total of 39 players in 2022 with at least 300 plate appearances and a 12%+ barrel rate. Of those 39, only Suwinski, Gary Sanchez, Patrick Wisdom, Luke Voit, Christopher Morel, Max Muncy, Ryan Mountcastle, and Joey Gallo had a sub-110 wRC+.

Now the difference between a 100 wRC+ batter and a 100 wRC+ batter might not seem like a major difference, but that’s the difference between Suwinski and Jake Cronenworth or Rowdy Tellez. It’s a decent step forward. Some of those hard-hit baseballs that fielders snagged in the shift may also help Suwinski. After all, he was shifted on 71.2% of the time in 2022. How many more hard-hit baseballs will be more difficult to make an out on with the limited shifting and Suwinski’s raw power? It should surely help him in 2023.

Ji-Man Choi – .415 wOBA Without The Shift

wOBA, or weight on-base average, is a more advanced version of slugging percentage and OPS. It gives specific values to an HBP, walk, single, double, triple, and a home run. Batting average and OBP can’t tell the difference between a walk and a double, but slugging percentage values a double twice as much as a single. This is the answer wOBA attempts to answer. It’s also on the scale of OBP.

In 2022, when Ji-Man Choi stepped to the dish without the shift, he had a .415 mark. This was the 11th-highest wOBA with no shift in at least 50 plate appearances. So why is this of note? Well, there are two reasons.

The first is the shift ban. Technically, the shift, in general, is not banned, but the way we know it now will no longer be allowed. Teams must have two infielders on each side of second base with both their feet on the dirt. While this won’t stop a second baseman from moving closer to first base, a shortstop moving a few steps closer to second base, or the outfielders shifting, it should tone down what we have seen, at the very least. Choi was shifted on a whopping 84% of the time last season.

The second reason is when Choi was shifted on, it severely brought down his overall ability. Choi had a .415 wOBA when the shift wasn’t on. But when the shift was put into motion? Choi had a .304 mark. That’s a 111-point difference. For reference, a 111-point difference in wOBA is the difference between National League MVP Paul Goldschmidt (.419) and Ben Gamel (.308) last year.

Of course, nobody is expecting Choi to go from a .322 wOBA in 2022 to rivaling Paul Goldschmidt just because of the toned-down shift. But an increase from .322 to .350-.360 is well within reason. That’s going from a 110 wRC+ to 125-135 wRC+. You can’t deny the stark contrast between how good Choi was without the shift. Choi should be one of the most beneficial players of the new shift rules. With a fully healthy elbow, Choi has the best opportunity as any Pirate to break out next season.

Robert Stephenson – 44.4% Slider Whiff Rate

Calculating whiff is pretty simple. It’s the number of swings and misses divided by the number of total swings taken. Robert Stephenson stands out with a 44.4% whiff rate on his slider, making it a truly deadly weapon. Stephenson made some major adjustments to his pitching repertoire with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and it worked out well for him after the acquisition.

It was only 13 total innings, but Stephenson held batters to a .170 batting average and .264 wOBA with his slider. There were only 13 pitchers in 2022 that faced 100+ batters and had a whiff rate of 44% or higher, and Stephenson was one of them. With a 44.4% whiff rate, you’re talking about a pitch that gets more swings and misses than Gerrit Cole’s slider or Dylan Cease’s slider.

So how can the Pirates take advantage of this? Well, it looks like they already have. Stephenson’s slider usage rate was just 45% during his time with the Colorado Rockies. However, after the Pirates claimed Stephenson off waivers, he used his slider nearly 70% of the time (69.4%, to be exact). He used his fastball a whole lot less as well, going from 53.6% to just 28.2%. There’s a good reason, as while his slider was nasty, his fastball was demolished to a .459 wOBA.

That big change in pitch arsenal will significantly work in Stephenson’s favor next season. Batters can’t hit his slider, and using it about three-quarters of the time seems like a no-brainer move. Sure, his fastball still isn’t great, but he also started to re-incorporate his curveball into the mix, which could even further lessen his four-seamer usage.