Pittsburgh Pirates: Way Too Early Opening Day Lineup Projection

First Base – Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi

This could depend on whether the Pirates face a left-hander or right-hander in their first game. But between Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana, the first base platoon looks to be in good hands. They complement each other very well, providing good defense at first base.

We’ll first start with Ji-Man Choi. Choi was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Jack Hartman. Choi is coming off a decent season, slashing .233/.341/.388 with a .322 wOBA and 115 wRC+. Choi drew walks at a phenomenal 13.8% rate, and his .154 isolated slugging percentage was above average. The downside is struck out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.

But Choi has consistently been a lot better vs. RHP and LHP. Choi has a career of .810 OPS vs. RHP but .589 OPS vs. southpaws. Another split that helps Choi is his wOBA when the shift is off. Choi had a .304 wOBA when he stepped to the plate with the shift. However, in the handful of times when the shift was off, he had a .415 wOBA. Plus, the Korean infielder had +2 defensive runs saved.

Choi underwent surgery soon after the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired him. It was only a minor procedure, but it severely affected his second-half performance. Before the All-Star Break, Choi had a 145 wRC+, but after? He registered a 69 wRC+. Choi will be put in a situation where he can succeed with the Pirates next year as his platoon mate Carlos Santana helps make up for his deficiencies against LHP.

The long-time Cleveland first baseman is coming off a pretty mediocre season. Sure he had a 102 wRC+, making him every so slightly an above-league-average hitter, but his slash line isn’t going to wow anyone. He batted .202/.316/.376. But there were some positives to draw from Santana. He only struck out 17.4% of the time with a 14% walk rate. He hit 19 home runs on top of that. He was also shifted on the most frequently last year of any qualified hitter, having the infield move positions 98.3% of the time on him.

On top of the reduced shift, Santana will likely see most, if not all, of his time vs. LHP. The switch-hitter had a 134 wRC+ when it came to facing a southpaw, but when he faced a right-hander, he had a miserable 89 wRC+.

If you take what Santana has done vs. LHP in his career and combine it with what Choi has done vs. RHP, you get a batter who hits .265/.369/.447 and averages 20 home runs every 600 plate appearances. The Pirates know what they’re doing at first base this year, and Santana and Choi should split the position and provide a very productive platoon in 2023.

Second Base – Rodolfo Castro

Rodolfo Castro may have struggled in the first half of the season, but after getting recalled in August, the infielder put on a quality display of power. Castro has always been a decent prospect in the minor league system and got a good chance at playing time in 2022. Now, he’s projected to take over a regular role in 2023.

Overall on the year, Castro batted .233/.299/.427 with a .315 wOBA and 102 wRC+. He hit 11 home runs in 278 plate appearances (an average of 24 in a full year) with a .194 isolated slugging percentage. The downside is Castro’s plate discipline was not great, to say the least. He had a 7.9% walk rate, which isn’t terrible, but his 26.6% strikeout rate is well below average.

But these numbers don’t tell the full story, especially given how well he did in August and September. The Pittsburgh Pirates recalled Castro in early August after sending him to Triple-A in July. Castro took the opportunity and ran with it, batting .247/.310/.478 with a .339 wOBA and 119 wRC+. Castro was one of the best power hitters down the stretch. His .231 isolated slugging percentage ranked top 30 among Major League hitters with 200+ plate appearances from the start of August through the end of the season.

The downside is the Pittsburgh Pirates are running out a mediocre glove at the keystone. In only 236 innings had -2 defensive runs saved, -9.2 UZR/150, and -3 outs above average. The Pirates do have much better defenders to put at second base, like Diego Castillo, Tucupita Marcano, and Jared Triolo, who could push Castro to designated hitter. But given the Pirates do not have a fantastic DH option, you can’t rule that out.

Third Base – Ke’Bryan Hayes

The truly deserving Gold Glover, Ke’Bryan Hayes, will look to capitalize on his raw power in 2023. Hayes has plenty of offensive upside. He has the raw power, the plate discipline, and overall ability. Now, he needs to raise his launch angle and lift the ball more.

Last year, Hayes batted a poor .244/.314/.345 with a .294 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Overall, he was one of the worst offensive third basemen in the league, ranking last in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ among his qualified peers at his position. But it’s not all doom and gloom for Hayes.

He still had an above-average 8.6% walk rate and 21.6% strikeout rate. He was also in the top 75th percentile of whiff rate and top 63rd percentile of chase rate, meaning he’s not going up to the plate and swinging at everything thrown at him. Hayes also had an outstanding 91 MPH exit velocity (top 85th percentile) and a 46.8% hard-hit rate. Hayes was the only batter last season with a hard hit rate of at least 45% and exit velo of 91 MPH or greater, not to reach the 100 wRC+ plateau. He’s also the first batter to rank in the top 84th percentile or greater in an entire season not to hit 20 home runs.

Hayes struggles with his launch angle and lifting the ball off the bat. His 5.2-degree launch angle is an improvement from last year but still very low. This led to a barrel rate of just 2.7% (bottom 13th percentile). Barrel rate essentially differentiates hard contact from quality contact as it takes launch angle into consideration.

Now that’s not to say that Hayes needs to become Joey Gallo and go all upper-cut swing or bust, but even increasing his launch angle to the 6-8 degree range would do Hayes a whole lot of good. Alejandro Kirk, Nate Lowe, Yandy Diaz, Jose Abreu, both Willson and William Contreras, and Michael Harris II all had sub-par launch angles around this 6-8-degree range.

Of course, there’s no doubting his defensive ability. His +24 defensive runs saved not only led his position by a margin of five runs but also led all of Major League Baseball by a margin of two runs. With +18 outs above average, only Jonathan Schoop (+27) and Dansby Swanson (+20) were worth more outs than Hayes. The next closest, Nolan Arenado, had just +18 OAA.

Hayes needs to make a slight adjustment, but if he can do that, he might end up being one of the most prominent breakout candidates in 2023. Again, he doesn’t need to go full launch angle-happy to be productive. If he raises the ball a little more, you could see massive strides moving forward next season for the third baseman.

Shortstop – Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz came up showing some issues with swing-and-miss but progressively improved his approach at the plate. Cruz entered the season as one of the sport’s best prospects. While it took a while for Cruz to figure out major-league pitching, he ended the season on an extremely high note.

On the season, Cruz batted .233/.294/.450 with 17 home runs in only 361 plate appearances. Hitting for power was not an issue for Cruz. He had a .218 ISO, but this came with the downside of a 34.9% strikeout rate. Cruz also had a decent but unimpressive 7.8% walk rate. But overall, he had an above-average .320 wOBA and 106 wRC+.

But through his last 167 plate appearances of the season, Cruz hit .275/.353/.523 with a .377 wOBA and 145 wRC+. The shortstop saw an increase in walk rate to 10.2% and a decrease in strikeout rate to 31.7%. He even hit for more power with a .248 ISO. Overall, Cruz was one of the best hitters in the league down the stretch. From August 20th through the end of the year, he ranked in the top 20 in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS.

Now defensively, well, Cruz has never been a great defensive infielder. While he had +1 defensive runs saved, he also had -9 outs above average. OAA paints a more accurate picture, given it uses measurable outcomes to show defensive ability, and at -9 in less than 800 innings is not good.

But if Cruz can at least provide playable defense at shortstop, he’ll hit more than enough to make up for it. Cruz has one of the highest offensive ceilings in baseball. Next year, Cruz could push 40 home runs. If Cruz continues to build upon his improvements in 2022, he’ll be one of the most fun players in the sport next year.

Left Field – Bryan Reynolds

Trade rumors and trade requests be damned, until he’s traded, I’m still lining up Bryan Reynolds in the Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day outfield. He is arguably the team’s best player. Reynolds is technically coming off a down year based on his standards. However, he was still a highly productive player and even a Silver Slugger finalist. His defense in center field might move him to left field, but he still should be highly effective in 2023.

Last year, Reynolds still hit a fantastic .262/.345/.461 line. He had a solid 23% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate with a healthy .199 isolated slugging percentage. Reynolds reached a career-high home run total with 27, leading to an overall .349 wOBA and 125 wRC+. That’s a decent step back from the .385 wOBA and 141 wRC+ he had in 2021, but he still ranked top five at his position in both statistical categories.

But it is worth noting that Reynolds did start the year off ice cold. Up until the start of June, he had a .690 OPS, .306 wOBA, and 96 wRC+. However, from June through the year’s end, Reynolds returned to form. His final four months consisted of a .285/.365/.495 slash, .369 wOBA, and 139 wRC+. In terms of wRC+, that was nearly exactly how he performed in 2021.

Reynolds was a Gold Glove finalist in 2021, but his defense took a step back in 2022. Defensive runs saved has never loved his work in center field, but -14 made him the least valuable defender in center. What was worrying was his massive dip in outs above average. He went from +10 in 2021 to -7 in 2022, making him the least valuable glove in center field.

Even if Reynolds needs to move from center field to left field, he’s still a batter who can put up a wRC+ of 130 or greater. He’s steadily seen his home run total increase since his rookie year, and his plate discipline has always been average or better. Next year should be another great year for the outfielder. While there is certaintly the possibility Reynolds gets traded, even more so now, I’m still putting him in the Pirates’ Opening Day outfield until something happens to change that.

Center Field – Ji-Hwan Bae

You know the Pirates see something in Ji-Hwan Bae if they were confident enough in moving Reynolds to left field in the final week of the season to give Bae some reps up the middle. Bae’s primary position is second base and shortstop. However, in the last two seasons, he has seen an increasing amount of time in the outfield.

Bae did quite well in his brief major league promotion. In 37 plate appearances, Bae collected 11 total hits, three of which were doubles. He didn’t hit a home run and only drew two walks, but he struck out just six times and was three-for-three in stolen base attempts.

Bae did well at Triple-A this year. In 473 trips to the dish, Bae batted .289/.362/.430. His .141 isolated slugging percentage isn’t great, but he’s slowly seen it rise over the past two seasons. Bae has always been known for his plate discipline, and he drew walks at a 10.1% rate with a K% of just 16.9%. Bae uses his ability to reach base at a healthy rate to swipe a ton of bases. He was 30-for-38 in stolen base attempts, marking the second season of his pro career he’s taken 30+ bases.

Bae has done nothing but hit, and he’s a prime lead-off candidate. He gets on base a ton, hits for average, and steals bases. He’s the kind of guy you want hitting in front of Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz because he’ll give both a ton of opportunities to score runs. He can easily go from first to third on a single or first to home on a double.

Right Field – Jack Suwinski

Jack Suwinski was a surprise rookie in 2022, providing both plus power and great fielding for the Bucs. Suwinski has underlying numbers that help support that he can be a productive bat next season. Even if he’s only a league average hitter once again, his ability to play defense will make him a valuable contributor.

Suwinski collected 372 plate appearances last season, slashing .202/.298/.411 with a .311 wOBA and 100 wRC+. Suwinski was pretty much league average on the dot. The league average OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ clocked in at .706, .310, and 100. Suwinski also had an above-average 11% walk rate but a sub-par 30.6% strikeout rate. But in terms of walk-to-strikeout ratio, Suwinski’s .36 rate was exactly league average, once again.

Suwinski provided very good power, slugging 19 home runs, and was one of four rookies with an isolated slugging percentage over .200 (min. 350 plate appearances). Suwinski ranked 4th among all newcomers and third in the National League. Fellow rookie teammate Oneil Cruz and Rookie Of The Year winner Michael Harris II ranked just above Suwinski.

On the defensive side of the ball, Suwinski saw time at all three outfield spots. All told, he had +2 defensive runs saved, +1 out above average, and a +7.8 UZR/150. Between his solid hitting and great defense, Suwinski was worth +1.8 fWAR in just over 100 games and 372 PAs. That’s a pace of +2.6 fWAR in 150 games and +2.9 fWAR in 600 plate appearances.

So what can help Suwinski become better in 2022? His barrel rate was in the 86th percentile of qualified hitters last year. He was one of the few batters to have an 85+ percentile barrel rate yet have a sub-110 wRC+. The difference between league average and 10% above average might not seem like a massive jump. Still, while Suwinski may have been the most league-average batter last season, the players with a 110 wRC+ in 350+ PAs included Rowdy Tellez, Tim Anderson, Luis Urias, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Cronenworth. Tellez is the closest offensive comparison you could make, and he hit 35 home runs.

Regardless if Suwinski improves upon his 100 wRC+ to become a much better hitter, a league-average bat from the outfielder will suffice, given his defensive ability. The outfield alignment of Reynolds, Bae, and Suwinski could prove to be one of the more underrated in 2023.

Designated Hitter – Miguel Andújar

The Pittsburgh Pirates claimed Miguel Andújar at the end of the 2022 season. Andujar, a former Rookie Of The Year candidate, looked like he could be an integral part of the New York Yankees back in 2018. However, injuries and breakouts pushed Andújar down on the Yankees’ depth chart. Now, he’ll look for a chance for playing time with the Pirates.

Back in 2018 Andújar batted .297/.328/.527 with 27 dingers and a whopping 47 doubles. The third baseman walked at a sub-5% pace but struck out at an outstanding 16% rate. Overall, Andújar had a .361 and 129 wRC+.

There were talks of moving Andújar to another position back in 2018, as he was a terrible third base defender. He was worth -21 defensive runs saved, -7 outs above average, and a -24.5 UZR/150. This past season, he mostly played left field for the Yankee Triple-A affiliate.

Speaking of his playing time at Triple-A this year, how’d he do there? In 297 plate appearances, Andujar slashed .285/.330/.487 with a .355 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Andujar showed off his low-strikeout/walk approach with an outstanding 11.3% strikeout rate but a poor 5.7% walk rate. He also hit for decent power, reaching 13 home runs in less than 300 plate appearances and posting a .202 ISO.

Andújar only played nine games, but two of those were multi-hit games, and at least one hit in six of the nine contests. If the Pittsburgh Pirates don’t feel Andújar is the guy to start the year at DH, they could go bold, give Jared Triolo the second base job, and move Castro to the DH role. Another player who could see time at DH early in the year is Cal Mitchell, who had a solid September but struggled on the defensive side of things.