Pittsburgh Pirates: Five More Potential Rule 5 Draft Picks

The Rule 5 draft is just around the corner. With the Pittsburgh Pirates getting an early selection, these five players could be on their radar.

The Rule 5 Draft is a chance for all teams who have an open roster spot to take a shot in the dark to find a potential diamond in the rough. While it’s hard to find a quality player, it’s not impossible. The Pittsburgh Pirates will have a chance to take a prospect from a team early in the upcoming draft this year.

With the draft quickly approaching, the Pirates should be looking at who they could take. Today, I want to name a few players that should be on their radar. Given the team’s current roster construction, these players would have an opportunity for playing time in Pittsburgh.

Nick Robertson

Nick Robertson is the Los Angeles Dodgers’ top relief pitching prospect. Ranked as the organization’s 29th best prospect per FanGraphs, Robertson didn’t get off to the best start to the year. However, he turned things around at the beginning of the second half and was a very good reliever down the stretch for the Dodgers’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates.

From July through the end of the season, the 24-year-old right-hander tossed 33 innings working to a strong 2.73 ERA, 3.22 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP. Robertson struck out just barely over 30% of opponents with a 30.2% strikeout rate. On top of that, he had a strong 7.2% walk rate. Home runs didn’t give Robertson trouble, either. He had a .53 HR/9 in the second half of the minor league season.

What makes Robertson an interesting relief prospect is he has an elite fastball. He’s gained velocity in each of the last three years, going from the mid-90s in 2020 instructs up to 95-99 MPH this past season. It’s a 70-grade offering and is far and away his best pitch. He’s increased his change-up usage this year, using it as much as his slider. While both aren’t on the same level as his fastball, they’re usable offerings. His slider can be an above-average offering, regardless.

Robertson is an intriguing low-risk relief prospect the Pittsburgh Pirates could bring in during the Rule 5 Draft. Given the lack of bullpen depth, Robertson could easily get regular innings for the Pirates in 2023. He has the potential to work himself into a higher-leverage role, given a chance.

Jose Lopez

It’s not very often you see a team swindle a player from the Tampa Bay Rays. But they left an intriguing left-handed relief prospect unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. That’s Jose Lopez. Lopez is coming off an outstanding season at Double-A, and made his Triple-A debut. There is some risk, but what Rule 5 prospect isn’t going to come with some risk?

Last season, Lopez tossed a grand total of 59.1 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. In that time, he had a 2.43 ERA, 2.77 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP. Batters rarely made contact against Lopez, managing a .167 batting average against him and struck out nearly 40% of the time (37.7%, to be exact). A .167 opponent average was actually the 27th lowest among all minor league pitchers with at least 50 frames. Plus, when they did make contact, they had a 48.7% ground ball rate. This included a 17.2-inning scoreless streak that lasted from August 4th through the end of the season.

Lopez throws relatively hard, averaging out around 94-96 MPH with an above-average spin rate. He also throws a slider that projects to be well above average. So what risk are the Pirates taking here? While he missed a ton of bats, he also walked 15.1% of the batters he faced. That’s a worryingly high rate, but he did have a much more manageable 11.8% rate from 2017 through 2021.

Now the walks are an issue and they can’t just be ignored. But there’s the potential for a decent left-handed pitcher here. Lopez will undoubtedly get some attention in the Rule 5 draft. He’s a lefty coming off a quality campaign in the upper levels of the minor leagues, already debuted at Triple-A, and has good stuff. That’s a prime Rule 5 Draft candidate if I’ve ever seen one. If he is still on the board when the Pittsburgh Pirates are put on the clock, he’s definitely a prospect they should have on their radar.

Cody Laweryson

The next player to examine is Cody Laweryson. The Minnesota Twin pitching prospect is unranked but could be on radars when pre-season rankings start rolling out. Laweryson is coming off an outstanding season between High-A and Double-A and will definitely be on Rule 5 radars this year’s Winter Meetings.

The right-hander spent the year as a swingman, starting ten of the 35 games he appeared in. In total, he tossed 94.2 innings. However, those were very effective innings, as Laweryson owned a 1.62 ERA, 2.50 FIP, and 0.98 WHIP. Laweryson allowed just 7.3% of his opponents to draw a free pass. Batters had an extremely hard time even making contact, with a 30.2% strikeout rate and a .198 batting average.

Even better was his ability to limit home runs. In nearly 100 innings, Laweryson surrendered just two home runs. He wasn’t much of a ground ball pitcher, though, with a ground ball rate of just 38.5%. He had a 2% HR/FB ratio, which is a bit worrying. However, a 3.90 xFIP still isn’t terrible, and he makes up for it with decent command and strikeout rates.

He only sits in the 88-91 MPH range despite the overpowering numbers. His change-up is arguably his best pitch, given its extremely low spin rate. He primarily relies on deception and off-speed/breaking stuff to get outs. But he makes it work very well. It’s not as if 2022 was a breakout campaign for the right-hander. Laweryson also had a decent 2021 campaign and a great showing in 2019.

Chase Pinder

As stated earlier, the Pittsburgh Pirates have almost no right-handed outfield options, with Triolo representing the only decent right-handed outfield option. If the Pirates have the opportunity to, they should keep an eye out for right-handed outfielders in the Rule 5 Draft, and Chase Pinder is a prospect they could steal from the division rival St. Louis Cardinals.

Pinder spent most of the year at Double-A, putting together an outstanding season at the dish. In 268 plate appearances, the outfielder slashed .278/.422/.488 with a .409 wOBA and 137 wRC+. Pinder drew nearly as many walks as base hits with 53 free passes, giving him an absurd 19.8% BB%. That was the second highest walk rate at Double-A last season (min. 250 PAs). It’s not as if he was a free-swinger either, with a strikeout rate of just 20.9%. He also had 14 doubles and ten home runs, culminating to a .211 isolated slugging percentage.

Triple-A didn’t treat Pinder nearly as well. He had just four hits in 39 plate appearances. But he still drew five walks, struck out four times, and luck was not on his side in the small sample size. Despite his line-drive rate increasing by nearly 11%, his batting average on balls in play was just .120. It’s a microscopic sample size, but that is in no way sustainable, given his plate discipline and power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates need a right-handed hitting outfield option to pair with their myriad of lefty options. With Pinder’s great 2022 campaign and reaching Triple-A, he definitely should be on Rule 5 radars. With his display of both power and plate discipline in 2022, Pinder would be a nice low-risk player to take a chance on.