2025 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions: Team MVP, breakout player, record and more

The Pittsburgh Pirates were probably hoping for a better season in 2024 than what they ended up with. After improving from 62 to 76 wins between 2022 and 2023, many hoped the Bucs could take another leap forward. After all, they’d get a full season of Oneil Cruz, Jared Jones was opening the year in the MLB rotation, and Paul Skenes would spend most of his 2024 campaign in the big leagues. The Pirates had mostly the same roster from 2023 as well, so it seemed reasonable to expect more wins with all those new players.

Unfortunately, the Pirates fell short - way short - of expectations. They won the same amount of games, despite what they had going for them in the rotation. Many players they were looking to rely on didn’t come close to replicating their 2023 success. Fans are uncertain about the 2025 team, to say the least. Still, as Opening Day arrives and hope springs eternal, here are my predictions for the upcoming season.

Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for 2025 MLB season

Pirates Team MVP: Oneil Cruz

After missing nearly all of 2023 due to a leg injury sustained after sliding into home plate, Oneil Cruz returned on a positive note. Cruz turned in some solid numbers, with a .259/.324/.446 triple-slash. He struck out at a 30.3% rate, but had a respectable 8.5% walk rate. All told, the slugger posted a .331 wOBA and 110 wRC+. Cruz also had a strong second half, with an .826 OPS, .354 wOBA, and 125 wRC+ from the start of July through the end of the season.

Known for his light-tower power, Cruz delivered 21 home runs with a .190 isolated slugging percentage, and there’s definitely potential in his bat for more home runs this season. He was in the 99th percentile of exit velocity (95.5 MPH) and the 97th percentile of barrel percentage (15.5%) last year. A 15%+ barrel rate means you’re much more likely to hit 30 home runs than not. There have been 110 seasons in the Statcast era (since 2015) where a player had a barrel rate of at least 15% in 400+ plate appearances. Eighty of those seasons were 30+ homer seasons (72.3%, to be exact).

Cruz was also a base running threat last year. He swiped 22 bases in 23 attempts, and became more aggressive on the base paths as the season went on. He attempted 16 steals from the start of July onward, and was successful all 16 times. Coming off a season-ending leg injury in 2023, it’s understandable why he wasn’t as aggressive on steals early in the year. Regardless, this made him just the 10th player in franchise history to have a 20/20 season in the integration era. 

Many are going to question Cruz’s defense in center field, but this is arguably the least worrying part of his game. Last season, Cruz averaged 39.5 feet covered in his jump, which represents the number of feet covered in the correct distance to a ball in the first three seconds. This was the highest in baseball last year, and almost a foot more than Jacob Young at 38.7 feet. For reference, Young had +19 outs above average last season. Cruz's route running was also efficient at +.04, according to Baseball Savant. Of course, his arm is powerful enough to throw out any runner trying to take an extra base on him.

Keep in mind, this represented Cruz learning center field. 2024 was the first time he ever played center field as a professional. He’s now had an entire offseason to get practice in (including playing in the Dominican Winter League) and is getting regular reps at the position in spring training. It’s not out of the question that he has the potential to win a Gold Glove in center field this year.

Even if Cruz produces like he did in 2024 with the bat, and pairs it with merely good defense in center field, he’ll be this team’s MVP. But he has the potential to be just the 14th center fielder in baseball history to reach a 30/30 season, and he could do it while winning a Gold Glove. That wouldn’t make him just the Pirates’ MVP, but a potential dark horse National League MVP candidate.