2025 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions: Team MVP, breakout player, record and more

Pirates Team Cy Young: Paul Skenes

Duh, who else would it possibly be?

When the Pirates drafted Paul Skenes first overall in 2023, they hoped he’d quickly become an ace. He blew those expectations out of the water in 2024. If Skenes replicates anything close to what he did during last season, he’ll be the best pitcher in baseball. It was by far the best rookie season by a pitcher of all time, bar none. His utter dominance is something the Pirates haven’t ever seen in their franchise’s history.

Skenes pitched 133 innings, working to a microscopic 1.96 ERA, 2.44 FIP, and 0.95 WHIP. He struck out nearly a third of opponents with a 33.1% K%. He wasn’t up there just throwing gas, either. Skenes was dotting the zone and had just a 6.2% walk rate. When batters were able to put the bat on the ball vs. Skenes, it rarely ever resulted in good contact. He was in the 76th percentile of exit velocity (87.8 MPH), 87th percentile of barrel percentage (5.2%), and had just a 0.68 HR/9.

Skenes is the first rookie in baseball history to have an ERA+ over 210 in at least 20 starts since 1882, when Denny Driscoll put up a 218 mark. Skenes sat at 214. When Denny Driscoll was born, Abraham Lincoln would not become president for another six years. Skenes and Noah Syndergaard in 2015 are the only rookie starters to have both a K/9 over 10 (11.5 for Skenes) and a BB/9 under 2.5 (Skenes sat at 2.2).

Let’s say that Skenes’ ERA+ is 50% worse in 2025 compared to 2024. That’s still a 164 ERA+. Only two pitchers in 2024 threw at least 150 innings with an ERA+ over 160, and they were the Cy Young winners: Chris Sale for the Atlanta Braves and Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers.