2025 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions: Team MVP, breakout player, record and more

Pirates' Breakout Player: Justin Lawrence

Picking Nick Gonzales or Jared Jones here wouldn't be a bad option, either. Both are very talented and showed a lot of promise in 2024, and should be quality players for the 2025 Bucs. But we're going to go with a more dark horse breakout candidate in Justin Lawrence here. The Bucs acquired Lawrence from the Rockies after he was DFA’d. He hasn’t produced many good numbers in Major League Baseball, with just a 5.43 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 1.61 WHIP. 

For pitching his entire career with the Rockies, he has surprisingly not been home run prone, with an 0.79 HR/9 rate, helped in part by a 50.9% ground ball rate and a 5.8% barrel percentage. Lawrence has a 21.3% strikeout rate, but consistently struggles with walks and has a 12.5% free pass percentage.

Lawrence’s numbers on the road aren’t horrible, unsurprisingly. He has a 3.86 ERA and has held opponents to a .676 OPS when he is the guest, but walks still follow the right-handed reliever, with a 13.8% BB%. He has also only struck out 15.9% of opposing batters on the road, compared to 24.5% when at Coors Field.

Lawrence has poor career numbers, and while he has a solid ERA when he is a guest, he has poor peripherals. So what does he have going for him? Coors Field messed with Lawrence in a way not many talk about. His sinker and sweeper can gain or lose up to five inches of break between playing in Coors Field versus playing on the road. Having one stable environment where he doesn’t have to constantly adjust on a week-to-week basis because Coors Field messes with his pitches is going to do him a whole lot of good. 

Just imagine if Paul Skenes suddenly lost five MPH off his fastball because he was playing on the road. He’d never be able to get a good feel for any of his pitches. This is what Justin Lawrence has been suffering through for his entire MLB career. Neither PNC Park, nor any other environment in baseball aside from Coors, does this sort of stuff. Lawrence’s ability to locate, his feel for his pitch mix, and his performance as a whole are going to improve if he finds one steady environment.