2025 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions: Team MVP, breakout player, record and more

Pirates Comeback Player of the Year: David Bednar

David Bednar entered 2024 with high expectations, and for a good reason. He was a two-time All-Star in 2022 and 2023, and had a 2.25 ERA, 2.56 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP across his first three seasons with the Bucs. With numbers that consistently strong, the Renegade was expected to lock down close games in the ninth inning all summer. Unfortunately, Bednar instead had the worst season of his pro career.

Bednar pitched to just a 5.77 ERA, 4.80 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP in only 57.2 innings of work. His strikeout rate, which sat at over 30% the previous three seasons, plummeted to an unimpressive 22.1%. Walks became a huge issue, with a 10.7% BB%, but home runs were Bednar’s biggest problem. His HR/9 and barrel rate from 2021 through 2023 were only 0.60 and 5.9%, respectively. In 2024, he saw those rise to 1.40 and 9.2% each.

But it’s not as if Bednar had a worrying drop in velocity or diminished stuff. His four-seamer averaged 97.3 MPH, a single-season career high, while his splitter and curveball sat at the same velocity as in 2023. On top of that, none of his pitches lost movement; in fact, he actually gained some. Stuff+ put him at 110, another single-season career best. This is a stat that measures how good a pitcher’s stuff is based on multiple factors, and puts it on a similar scale as something like wRC+ or OPS+, where 100 is always average.

Bednar came out of the gates slow because of a lat injury that only held him to just 30 pitches in spring training. In each of his first three seasons with the Pirates, he threw 135, 98, and 94 pitches each spring training campaign. He was also placed on the IL in late June, and was supposedly tipping some of his pitches. At the time of writing this, he has already thrown 86 pitches this spring. 

Bednar’s stuff looks as good as it’s ever been in spring training. He’s healthy and pitching, and that’s already one positive he has over 2024. If he resolved his pitch tipping, Bednar will be back to normal in 2025.