3 former Pittsburgh Pirates players in danger of being non-tendered this winter

MLB Trade Rumors recently published their arbitration salary projections in advance of this offseason. The 2025-2026 free agent class could expand dramatically before the arbitration deadline, as many different players will likely be non-tendered.

A handful of non-tender candidates are former Pittsburgh Pirates players, and these three former Buccos stand out as the most notable that could hit free agency in the very near future.

3 former Pirates players in danger of being non-tendered this winter

Bailey Falter

Pirates fans were definitely not happy with how Ben Cherington handled the 2025 trade deadline. It only added fuel to the fire when they essentially salary dumped Bailey Falter to the Kansas City Royals, amid reports that they viewedthe lefty as a non-tender candidate. But, with how his Royals tenure has gone so far, it no longer sounds as unreasonable as it did a few months ago.

On the surface, Falter’s 3.73 ERA over 113.1 innings with the Pirates looked solid, but he only struck out 15.3% of opponents, and was both home run and hard contact-prone. The left-hander had a 1.35 HR/9, with a 90.3 MPH exit velocity and 9.5% barrel rate. His 8.5% walk rate was also only about league average. His underlying statistics, such as his 5.03 xFIP and 5.20 SIERA, only pointed toward regression.

His time in Kansas City couldn’t have gone any worse. He only ended up pitching a dozen innings after the trade. Those 12 frames saw Falter allow 15 earned runs. He also surrendered seven walks while allowing 20 hits in the small sample size. Two of the 20 hits he allowed left the park, and he only struck out 11.

If the Royals keep Falter for another year, he’ll likely be the odd-man-out heading to the bullpen. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Cole Ragans all have rotation spots locked down for 2026. Kris Bubic is expected to return next year following rotator cuff surgery. Standout rookie Noah Cameron has earned himself another look next season. They also acquired Stephen Kolek at the trade deadline, who had a promising season and looked outstanding for the Royals in his five starts. MLB TR currently projects Falter to make $3.3 million in arbitration. That could be too steep for KC.

JT Brubaker

JT Brubaker is another former Pirates starter who will likely hit the open market. The right-hander appeared in 63 games while making 61 starts and tallying 315.2 innings from 2020 through 2022. He posted a poor 4.99 ERA and struggled to limit home runs, with a 1.45 HR/9. However, he struck out batters at a respectable 23.3% rate, harboring an above-average 7.8% walk rate. 

The last three seasons have been rough on Brubaker. He was projected to play a role in the Pirates’ 2023 pitching staff, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. The Pirates then traded him about a year later to the New York Yankees for infield prospect Keiner Delgado. While he was projected to make his return in 2024, he experienced constant setbacks, limiting him to just 16.2 innings in the minor leagues. His return to the mound was delayed once again in 2025, as he fractured three ribs avoiding a comebacker during spring training.

Brubaker finally made his return to the mound this season, pitching 28.1 innings with the Yankees and San Francisco Giants, who signed him after the Yanks released him, fed up after waiting out his recovery. Brubaker allowed a dozen earned runs and handed out the same number of free passes. He didn’t allow a single home run and struck out just 20 opponents in the small sample size. Brubaker appeared in 17 contests, while only making one start.

Brubaker is projected to earn $2.1 million in arbitration by MLB TR. Although the Giants need starting pitching depth, it does not seem like Brubaker will be in the fold. They have plenty of other young pitchers they’ll likely prioritize over keeping Brubaker around, including Landen Roupp, Carson Whisenhunt, and Trevor McDonald. The money spent on Brubaker could also be used toward bringing Justin Verlander back for another year, which both parties have expressed interest in.

Reese McGuire

Reese McGuire was originally a first-round pick by the Pirates in 2013, but the Bucs traded him in the ill-fated Francisco Liriano salary dump. Since then, he has suited up for the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, and, this season, the Chicago Cubs, primarily serving as a part-time/secondary catcher. But with the Cubs having plenty of other options behind the dish, McGuire is a commodity they don’t need.

2025 was more of the same for McGuire. He only hit .226/.245/.444 with a .290 wOBA and 86 wRC+ over 140 plate appearances. On the plus side, the backstop hit a career-high nine home runs with a .213 isolated slugging percentage. McGuire only walked 2.9 of the time, but also kept up a solid 19.3% strikeout percentage. His 2025 performance wasn't much better or worse than his career averages: a .667 OPS, .290 wOBA, and 81 wRC+.

McGuire has always been lauded for his defense, and his solid glove behind the dish continued to be one of his biggest strengths. He may have had -1 defensive run saved, but sported +2.6 framing runs. McGuire did not allow a single passed ball, and had +2 blocking runs. His 1.93 second poptime was in the 68th percentile of qualified catchers this season, and helped him catch 25.8% of would-be base stealers (league average CS% was 23.2%).

The Cubs’ depth chart is rich with catching talent already. With Miguel Amaya, Carson Kelly, and top prospect Moises Ballesteros all on hand, bringing back McGuire for another year as a second-string backstop is more of a waste of a projected $1.9 million than anything for the Cubs. The former Pirates top prospect will likely find another job as a backup catching option for another team in 2025.