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At 4-7, this slow Pirates start is not what we wanted, but the season is still young and there is a lot of time work out of this early funk and get hot. Some of the success that this team has had was established by five key players. Out of these five that are notable, three of them look like they can sustain this success over the course of the season, while two seem to be getting lucky.
These three Pirates players' hot starts feel sustainable for the 2025 season.
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Ke'Bryan Hayes is off to a hot start at the plate, posting a wRC+ of 111 with an OPS of .754 and a strikeout rate of 11.9%. What makes a hot start like this feel sustainable for Hayes is his advanced metrics. His launch angle is back up to 15 degrees, the groundball rate is down to 39.4%, and his average exit velocity is at 92.6 mph. He is once again hitting the ball hard, and his success is coming from elevating it, something he lacked in 2024. Now that his swing is back, Hayes appears to be returning to his 2023 form.
Paul Skenes
Paul Skenes has been exactly what we expected thus far, tossing up a 1.46 ERA in 12.1 innings and a 0.65 WHIP. He also adds 13 strikeouts and a 1.45 FIP. Skenes has been dominant, and his Statcast numbers are also excellent, limiting batters from making hard contact and generating lots swings out of the zone. Fans envisioned the 2024 Rookie of the Year getting more hardware in 2025, this time with a Cy Young. His start is making that goal look feasible, and he does not appear to be slowing down.
Dennis Santana
Dennis Santana was an unwanted waiver claim by fans in 2024, yet now he is being thrown in for closer opportunities. Through 5.1 innings, Santana's ERA sits at 3.38 with an opposing average of .211 and a FIP of 3.63. After what he did in Pittsburgh to conclude 2024, fans can expect his strong start to stay consistent through 2025. Whether he stays in the closer role or returns to a setup gig, his consistency with the Pirates in high leverage shows this is not just luck.
These two Pirates players' starts feel like fool's gold, and a regression may follow.
Joey Wentz
Joey Wentz barely made the Opening Day roster, yet he has some of the best numbers on the team. His 1.23 ERA with an opposing average of .185 and a 3.21 FIP are impressive, but it doesn't feel like they are going to stick. He is walking guys at a high rate (12.5%), allowing a lot of hard-hits (45%, 94 mph exit velocity), and not inducing enough ground balls (40%). Hard contact and balls in the air often do not go well together, so a Wentz falloff feels inevitable.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Lastly is Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the shortstop holding together the bottom of the order for the Pirates. He is batting .343 (12-for-35) to start, with four RBI and a wRC+ of 138. His hot start was a pleasant surprise, but he has never had a wRC+ above the league average of 100 or batted over .280 in a season. His BAPIP at .387 is also way too high to last all season long, and without a lot of pop in his bat, if he doesn't hit singles, he won't really find ways on base.