3 Pirates players who will exceed expectations in 2025

Last year, the Pittsburgh Pirates brought in several unheralded players who well exceeded the initial expectations attached to them. Dennis Santana was a waiver claim who became one of their go-to late-inning arms by the end of the season. Joey Bart was originally acquired to serve as catching depth, but is heading into 2025 with the inside track on the starting catcher job. One could even argue Paul Skenes went above and beyond. While everyone expected him to be great, who expected him to have the greatest season ever by a rookie pitcher?

Heading into 2025, the Pirates plan to employ a handful of players who do not have high expectations set upon them. However, they certainly have the potential to not only play above said expectations, but exceed them by a fair margin. These three, in particular, have the most potential to do so.

3 Pirates players with most potential to exceed expectations in 2025

Tommy Pham

A lot of fans were not thrilled when the Pirates signed Tommy Pham. After all, Pham batted a meager .248/.305/.368 with a .297 wOBA and 91 wRC+ across 478 plate appearances last season. He walked at a below-average 7.3% rate with a roughly average 22.2% strikeout percentage. 2024 also marked the first full season of his career in which he failed to hit at least 15 home runs, with just nine dingers and a .120 isolated slugging percentage.

Pham’s recent numbers aren’t great, but his stuff under the hood paints a much better picture. Pham still had an above-average 90.4 MPH exit velocity (70th percentile). However, his barrel rate fell from 10.7% to just 7.2% between 2023 and 2024. His 18.7% chase percentage was one of the lowest in all of baseball. He was just slightly behind the eagle-eyed Juan Soto, who finished at 18.3%. 

Pham was still above the 50th percentile of all expected numbers. That includes a .319 xwOBA (52nd percentile), expected batting average at .263 (76th percentile), and xSLG% at .407 (54th percentile). Recent history shows that if he keeps up a similar exit velo, launch angle (11 degrees), and whiff rate (22.5%), 2024 may be a fluke for Pham.

Over the last three seasons, there have been 56 instances of a batter having a 90+ MPH exit velo, a whiff rate below 25%, and a launch angle of at least 10 degrees in 400+ PAs. Tommy Pham, Andrew Vaughn, and Patrick Bailey in 2024, and Carlos Santana in 2022, are the only instances of a sub-.310 wOBA. The average wOBA between these 56 seasons is .352.

Hitting the ball hard, not swinging and missing often, and maintaining a decent launch angle is typically a recipe for success. Pham was above average in each of these categories in 2024. Sure, he is a year older and in his late 30s, but there’s a lot of evidence to point to a rebound in 2025 for the veteran outfielder.