3 Pirates prospects who will punch their way up midseason prospect rankings

The 2025 season is well underway. We’ve gotten plenty of opportunities to see what the Pittsburgh Pirates’ top prospects can do, like Bubba Chandler, who lowered his ERA on the season to 1.33 while hitting 100+ MPH five different times in his last start. However, it’s unlikely he’ll see much movement up prospect lists. Heck, Baseball America ranks him as the sixth-best prospect in all of baseball right now. There isn't very much higher he can go.

On the flip side, though, these three underrated Pirates minor leaguers have a real chance of making some serious strides in prospect rankings by midseason, especially given their hot starts.

3 Pirates prospects who'll rise in rankings by midseason

Hunter Barco

Fans were expecting a big year for Hunter Barco. After all, his first extended look in the minor leagues was decent, as he owned a 3.27 ERA, struck out 31.2% of batters faced, had just an 8.3% walk rate, and posted an 0.68 HR/9 through 66 innings between Greensboro and Altoona. Barco was one of just 42 minor league pitchers with 15+ games started, an ERA below 3.50, and a K%-BB% of at least 20% last year.

But the southpaw has blown all expectations out of the water to start 2025. To say that Barco has been dominating Double-A batters would be a massive understatement. Barco has yet to allow any runs in four starts and 17.2 innings pitched. The left-hander has struck out 22 opponents while only dishing out a quartet of walks. Only eight batters have gotten hits off of Barco so far.

Baco flashed some potential improvements in spring training. His sinker was sitting mid-90s, and topping out at around 97 MPH. If Barco is throwing that sort of heat in his starts, it’s no wonder why he’s doing so well. He pairs this pitch with a low-80s slider and mid-80s splitter, both of which project as above-average offerings. He also added a changeup to the mix, but it is a fringy pitch. His lower arm slot and decent command make his improved velocity all the more deadly.

Barco is already considered a top-10 prospect in the Pirates’ system by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America. There is almost no question at this point that Barco is going to be a consensus top-100 prospect in midseason rankings. If his velocity is holding up while he is making professional hitters at Double-A look outright silly, he’ll make one of the largest jumps for any top prospect in the minor leagues.

Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez showed off some potential at A-Ball Bradenton last season. In 435 plate appearances, Valdez batted .226/.352/.464 with a .384 wOBA and 130 wRC+. The outfielder/first baseman provided plenty of power, with 22 home runs and a .237 isolated slugging percentage. He drew walks at a healthy 13.6% clip, but struck out just over 30% of the time with a 30.6% K%.

Valdez was especially good when summer began. From June 1st through the end of the season, he had an .883 OPS, .407 wOBA, and 147 wRC+. He nearly had a .300 ISO, sitting at .298. Valdez’s 27.4% K% was still unimpressive, but an improvement from before. Valdez continued to lower his K% throughout the season, and through the last month of his 2024 minor-league campaign, Valdez only struck out 21.4% of the time.

That strong season and end to the campaign earned Valdez a promotion to Greensboro, where he is now obliterating High-A pitching. He is slashing .377/.472/.672 through 72 plate appearances. Valdez has continued to hit for a ton of power, going yard five times with an isolated slugging percentage just a few ticks under .300 at .295. He’s drawn plenty of free passes with a 13.9% BB%, but strikeouts continue to plague him with a 29.2% rate.

Chances are, Valdez’s performance isn’t sustainable. His batting average on balls in play is an absurdly high .514 mark. His career BABIP is only .327. However, even after Valdez’s BABIP stabilizes, he’s likely still going to hit well. He draws plenty of walks and hits for power, and while his K% isn’t great, he has shown some improvement.

Valdez is arguably the best-performing minor-leaguer you can’t find on a top-30 prospect list. Neither MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, nor FanGraphs have Valdez in their top 30 Pirates prospect rankings. However, his power and plate discipline will likely get him some consideration for a back-end spot on some top 30 lists later this summer.

Antwone Kelly

Antwone Kelly was another prospect you weren’t going to find on any top 30 prospect lists entering the season. The right-hander did well in the Florida Complex League, but stumbled in A-Ball last season, with a 4.43 ERA, 4.74 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP in 69 innings. Despite the unimpressive numbers at Bradenton, the Pirates opted to send Kelly to Greensboro to open 2025, and so far, the move has paid off.

He’s only tossed 15 frames, but has allowed just six home runs with 18 strikeouts. After walking more than 11% of his opponents last season, Kelly has only handed out five free passes to kick off 2025. The right-hander has yet to allow a home run, either. His 2.44 FIP is the 11th-lowest, while his 21.7% K%-BB% is the 31st-highest among all High-A pitchers who have started at least three games.

Kelly’s performance has been good, but his stuff looks even better. He’s topping out at 100 MPH on the gun, a massive step forward from last season. According to Baseball America, he’s gained about four ticks of velocity compared to last season. Kelly tosses a slider and changeup to go with his flaming four-seam fastball.

Kelly is doing all of this in just his age-21 campaign. We shall see how the rest of the season plays out, but Kelly hitting triple-digits is a very positive sign of potential things to come. You’re not going to find a guy hitting 100 MPH left off of many top 30 prospect lists, especially one as young as Kelly. Look for him to appear on the back end of updated lists later this season.