3 players on 40-man roster the Pirates should consider trading (for the right price)

Bailey Falter

Pirates fans were rightfully frustrated that the team broke camp last year with Bailey Falter in the starting rotation. After an unimpressive showing in the second half of the year with the Bucs in 2023, as well as struggling in spring training, many were hoping a young arm like Quinn Priester or Luis Ortiz would be given a shot. Fans were even more outraged when Falter allowed six earned runs in four innings during his first start of the year.

But after that, Falter settled down and remained in the Pirates’ rotation for the entire season. Over his next 138.1 innings pitched, the southpaw had a 4.16 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. Falter owned an above-average 0.98 HR/9 and a strong 7.4% walk rate throughout this stretch, but he did not strike out many batters and had a K% of just 16.7%.

Falter settled in as a solid middle/back of the rotation arm, but a look under the hood shows some concerning numbers. Opponents hit the ball hard off of Falter with a 90.3 MPH exit velocity and 8.8% barrel rate. Falter’s ERA estimators also did not paint a pretty picture. He had a 4.63 xFIP and 4.84 SIERA. 

However, Falter does have some attributes that might help him play above those numbers. According to Baseball Savant, he is in the 98th percentile of release point extension at 7.3 feet. His four-seam fastball may only register 91.8 MPH on the radar gun, but because of how far Falter releases the ball in front of him, it looks more like a 93-94 MPH pitch. Falter’s fastball also has good backspin and has a 97% active spin rate. That means 97% of his fastball’s spin contributes to movement. That has given his four-seamer only 14.7 inches of drop. Falter also throws from a high, 56-degree arm angle, giving his stuff another level of deception.

Now, obviously, teams understand numbers like these better than anyone, but whether it merits a deeper dive or not, Falter clearly possesses a lot of things teams value. He is only going to be in his age-28 season next year, is still an entire season away from arbitration, and has shown he can at least be a solid back-of-the-rotation arm. Falter may not be the flashiest pitcher on the trade market if the Pirates are willing to move him, but he’s on the younger side, has four years of control remaining, and has qualities that could help him play above his expectations.