3 players on 40-man roster the Pirates should consider trading (for the right price)

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The Pittsburgh Pirates must be active in the trade market this offseason. Their lineup needs work, but with their current depth chart, they could definitely deal from a strength to improve a weakness while not greatly affecting the effectiveness of said strength. Their current 40-man roster’s strength is easily their starting pitching depth.

The Pirates have a ton of top pitching prospects, but they also have some arms already on the 40-man roster that could be used in trades this winter. Dealing someone from the 40-man roster might be an attractive route, as they would be trading someone who is on the verge of being in the Major Leagues, if not already in the bigs. If they opt to go this route, who should they deal (for the right price)?

Which players from Pirates' 40-man roster could be traded this offseason?

Luis Ortiz

Coming into the 2024 season, many did not know what to expect from Luis Ortiz. He looked great during a late-season call-up in 2022 and was even ranked as a top 100 prospect by some outlets going into 2023. But Ortiz looked terrible in 2023, posting an ERA approaching 5.00 and a FIP approaching 6.00. Going into this season, Ortiz was tasked with being a long reliever, but after pitching very well in that role, he was stretched out a bit more and ended up making 15 starts along the way.

Ortiz ultimately pitched 135.2 innings. He worked to the tune of a 3.32 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP. He only struck out 19.2% of opponents, but that was a huge improvement from his 14.8% mark the season prior. He also cut his HR/9 down to 1.06. Notably, the most significant improvement was his control. Ortiz walked 12% of batters he went up against in 2023. However, this year, he only handed out a free pass 7.6% of the time.

There are some concerns about Ortiz’s overall performance. His batting average on balls in play was .243 despite a pedestrian 89 MPH exit velocity and 8.8% barrel rate. Neither xFIP (4.59) nor SIERA (4.28) were kind to his surface-level ERA. Needless to say, Ortiz certainly has room for improvement.

He saw his Stuff+ go from just 99 in 2023 to 104 in 2024, thanks in part to multiple different changes he made regarding his mechanics and arsenal. Location+ also put him in a positive light, as he went from 95 to 100.

Ortiz likely has the most value of any player on this list. He is only going to be 26 for all of next season. He still has two seasons of control remaining before hitting arbitration. On top of that, he’s coming off a season where he showed a lot of promise as a starting pitcher, as well as making the necessary adjustments to be successful. Plus, he was a top 100 prospect not that long ago, either.

Bailey Falter

Pirates fans were rightfully frustrated that the team broke camp last year with Bailey Falter in the starting rotation. After an unimpressive showing in the second half of the year with the Bucs in 2023, as well as struggling in spring training, many were hoping a young arm like Quinn Priester or Luis Ortiz would be given a shot. Fans were even more outraged when Falter allowed six earned runs in four innings during his first start of the year.

But after that, Falter settled down and remained in the Pirates’ rotation for the entire season. Over his next 138.1 innings pitched, the southpaw had a 4.16 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. Falter owned an above-average 0.98 HR/9 and a strong 7.4% walk rate throughout this stretch, but he did not strike out many batters and had a K% of just 16.7%.

Falter settled in as a solid middle/back of the rotation arm, but a look under the hood shows some concerning numbers. Opponents hit the ball hard off of Falter with a 90.3 MPH exit velocity and 8.8% barrel rate. Falter’s ERA estimators also did not paint a pretty picture. He had a 4.63 xFIP and 4.84 SIERA.

However, Falter does have some attributes that might help him play above those numbers. According to Baseball Savant, he is in the 98th percentile of release point extension at 7.3 feet. His four-seam fastball may only register 91.8 MPH on the radar gun, but because of how far Falter releases the ball in front of him, it looks more like a 93-94 MPH pitch. Falter’s fastball also has good backspin and has a 97% active spin rate. That means 97% of his fastball’s spin contributes to movement. That has given his four-seamer only 14.7 inches of drop. Falter also throws from a high, 56-degree arm angle, giving his stuff another level of deception.

Now, obviously, teams understand numbers like these better than anyone, but whether it merits a deeper dive or not, Falter clearly possesses a lot of things teams value. He is only going to be in his age-28 season next year, is still an entire season away from arbitration, and has shown he can at least be a solid back-of-the-rotation arm. Falter may not be the flashiest pitcher on the trade market if the Pirates are willing to move him, but he’s on the younger side, has four years of control remaining, and has qualities that could help him play above his expectations.

Braxton Ashcraft

The one prospect on this list is Braxton Ashcraft. The Pirates originally drafted Ashcraft in the second round of the 2018 draft. It’s been a bumpy ride to get where he is now, as he barely pitched from 2020 to 2022, suffering multiple injuries. Ashcraft, like many young starters, had to undergo Tommy John surgery, and also lost the COVID-19 2020 season entirely.

Ashcraft rebuilt a lot of his value in 2023, but got even better in 2024. He pitched 73 innings this year, working to a 2.84 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP. The righty struck out just over a quarter of his opponents, with a 25.8% K%, and limited home runs well. Ashcraft had just an 0.74 HR/9 rate while holding opponents to an 87.9 MPH exit velocity and 5.1% barrel rate. His biggest strength was limiting walks, and he had just a 4% BB%. That led to the 15th-best walk rate and the 13th-best K:BB ratio (6.42) among all minor-league pitchers who started at least a dozen games.

Ashcraft only pitched 73 innings, but managed to go six or more innings on five different occasions. The last time Ashcraft went six frames prior to this season was in 2019. In 2023, he never reached even 4.1 innings pitched because of the multiple injuries that kept him out for so long.

Of course, the one lingering concern is that he missed most of the second half due to injuries once again in 2024.

Ashcraft has the qualities to be a starting pitcher in the big leagues. He went deeper into games in the upper levels of the minor leagues this season. He has four pitches, three of which project as above average or better. His mid-90s four-seamer and his upper-80s slider are his best offerings, featuring plus potential. The right-hander’s curveball has also shown some promising traits, and Baseball America projects it to be above average. He’ll mix in a cutter and a changeup occasionally, but his most notable strength is his overall control rather than the diversity of his portfolio.

Given that his injury concerns may raise some red flags, as well as some reliever risk, this is likely the highest Ashcraft’s value is going to be as a prospect. The Pirates should capitalize now. It’s not as if he’s their only top prospect in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Dealing Ashcraft only takes out one of multiple starting pitching options between Double-A and Triple-A.

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Which players from Pirates' 40-man roster could be traded this offseason?

Luis Ortiz

Bailey Falter

Braxton Ashcraft

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