3 potential x-factors that could play roles for the Pirates in 2025

Kyle Nicolas

Dauri Moreta isn’t the only potential x-factor in the Pirates' pen. The Pirates also have Kyle Nicolas, who could be one of the team’s go-to late-inning arms by the end of this upcoming season. Nicolas has one of the highest ceilings in the Pirates’ bullpen and will look to build upon a promising 2024.

Nicolas pitched 54.1 innings out of the Pirates’ bullpen last season, posting a 3.95 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and 1.50 WHIP. His 22.6% strikeout rate clocked in around the league average, but he limited batters to a HR/9 of 0.66. Despite that low home run rate, Nicolas induced a sub-par 90 MPH exit velocity and 8.5% barrel percentage. The right-hander, who has struggled with control in the past, handed out a free pass to 11.8% of opponents. 

ERA estimators did not love Nicolas. He had a 4.49 xFIP, 4.32 SIERA and was in the 30th percentile of xERA at 4.40. While this doesn’t put him in a strong position, it was his first look in the Major Leagues beyond the 5.1 inning sample size he posted late into the 2023 season. Plus, there’s plenty Nicolas can build off of in 2025, like his plus pitch arsenal. 

Nicolas was in the 97th percentile of fastball velocity last season, sitting at 97.4 MPH. On top of that, his extension off the mound was nearly seven feet, which made his already elite velocity look even faster out of the hand. His mid-80s curveball was next to untouchable. He induced a swing-and-miss 44.7% of the time and held opponents to a xwOBA of just .251. When batters made contact, it resulted in a -3-degree launch angle. It was one of the most effective curveballs in the game, with the seventh-highest whiff percentage and the 25th-lowest xwOBA among pitchers who used a curveball at least 20% of the time. Nicolas induced the lowest launch angle with the pitch among pitchers who used their curve in 30+ plate appearances.

Nicolas’ curveball was outstanding, but don’t sleep on his slider, either. It’s a low-90s offering that also held opponents to a sub-.300 xwOBA at .297. He often induced weak contact with his slider as well, with an 85.6 MPH exit velo, a four-degree launch angle, and a 4.8% barrel percentage. Between these three offerings, Nicolas had a 106 Stuff+ mark.

Nicolas now gets to work with renowned pitching coach Brent Strom, whom the Pirates hired as an assistant pitching coach this winter. If he can help Nicolas’ fastball play to the level his slider and curveball did last season, Nicolas will become an extremely dominant pitcher and possibly force himself into high-leverage innings.