3 prospects Pirates will likely escape the Rule 5 Draft without losing

The Rule 5 Draft is scheduled for Dec. 10 during the Winter Meetings. The Pittsburgh Pirates protected a total of seven players from the draft by adding them to the 40-man roster. Luckily for the Bucs, most of the players they left unprotected are not going to get picked up. Most of the players from the Pirates' system who are Rule 5 Draft-eligible are organizational depth, or young enough where they won't be taken. However, there are three that specifically stand out as prospects and are still unlikely to get taken during the draft.

The Pirates probably aren't going to lose these prospects in the Rule 5 Draft.

Anthony Solometo

If there’s any Pirates prospect who has a chance of going in the Rule 5 Draft, it’s Anthony Solometo. The left-handed pitching prospect was the Pirates’ second-round pick out of high school in 2021, and got off to a strong start to his pro career. However, Solometo has struggled, both in terms of performance and health, over the last two seasons, which led to him getting left off the 40-man roster.

In 2024, Solometo pitched 70.1 innings while putting up a meager 5.37 ERA, 5.40 FIP, and 1.52 WHIP. He struggled to limit walks, with a 12.4% walk rate, and struck out an unflattering 16.9% of opponents. His 1.02 HR/9 ratio was the only number on his 2024 report card that wasn't outright horrible. While Solometo looked to rebound in 2025, he ended up on the IL for nearly the entire season, tallying just 10.2 innings over the course of the whole year.

The last time Solometo was healthy and pitched well was in 2023, when he had a 3.26 ERA, 26.2% K%, and 8.6% BB% over 110.1 innings.

Solometo was never considered a power pitcher, sitting 91-94 MPH at his best, but saw a velocity dip in 2024. He also mixes in a slider and a changeup. However, what makes Solometo’s ordinary velocity play up is his tricky delivery and low arm slot. Coming out of the draft and early in his minor league career, Solometo also displayed outstanding command over his arsenal. 

This all means Solometo will likely get through the Rule 5 Draft, remaining in the Pirates’ organization. Solometo may have some upside as a left-handed reliever, is still young enough to turn things around, and is ranked as a top 30 prospect in a deep farm system. Still, chances are there will be pitchers available ahead of Solometo who are coming off a more promising 2024 and 2025 with better prospect pedigree than he currently has.

Nick Cimillo

The Pirates took Nick Cimillo as their 16th-round pick during the 2022 draft. He was initially drafted as a catcher out of Rutgers, but has primarily played first base since entering pro ball. 2025 was an up-and-down season for Cimillo. He began the year ice cold before things started to click for the first baseman during the second half of the season.

Heading into this year’s All-Star break, Cimillo was hitting .212/.286/.355 with a .297 wOBA and 85 wRC+ through his first 260 plate appearances at Double-A Altoona. His overall peripherals were mostly unimpressive. He walked 8.1% of the time, sported a 22.3% strikeout percentage, and finished with an isolated slugging percentage of .143 and a half-dozen home runs. While the Eastern League was very pitcher-friendly in 2025, it was hardly the start Cimillo likely wanted.

However, after the break, Cimillo went on a hot streak and hit .276/.364/.635 with a .440 wOBA and 179 wRC+. While it took Cimillo over 250 plate appearances in the first half to go yard six times, it only took him 195 plate appearances to hit 14 more home runs. That led to an outstanding .359 ISO. To make things even better, he upped his walk rate to 11.8% and cut his K% down to 20%

There’s no doubt Cimillo had a strong second half, but first base-only prospects almost never get selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Only two have been selected in the Major League Phase since the 2016 draft. That includes Mike Ford in 2017 and Ryan Noda in 2022. That alone makes Cimillo’s draft candidacy low. The fact that he isn’t even a top 30 prospect in the Pirates’ system only makes it more unlikely that Cimillo goes in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. After all, once an MLB option is taken, they must be carried on the active roster, when healthy, all year, lest they be returned. It's much easier to hide a reliever than an inexperienced first baseman.

Omar Alfonzo

Heading into the 2025 season, Omar Alfonzo was considered one of the Pirates’ potential breakout prospects. The young backstop hit well at A-Ball Bradenton and made a strong first impression in a small sample size at High-A Greensboro in 2024. The way Alfonzo started the year made it look like he was destined to earn a 40-man roster spot.

Alfonzo returned to High-A to kick off 2025, and he hit .261/.389/.440 with a .393 wOBA and 141 wRC+ over his first 284 plate appearances of the year. Alfonzo showed off his power potential with 11 home runs and a strong .179 ISO. He also walked at a healthy 15.5% rate. On the downside, his most glaring flaw also showed, as he struck out 27.8% of the time. Still, considering he was only in his age-21 season, it was about as good a start as any catching prospect could have asked for.

Unfortunately, when Alfonzo was promoted to Double-A, he did not continue to hit well. While it wasn’t a massive sample size (only 193 plate appearances), Alfonzo was only batting .218/.308/.335 at Altoona. His walk rate shrunk to 9.8%, while his K% rose to 30.1%. Alfonzo didn’t offset that with any power either, as he only hit three more home runs and had an ISO of .118.

Alfonzo may still be young, as he turned 22 in August, and still has a very high ceiling, but like first basemen, catchers are also a rare commodity in the Rule 5 Draft. The Miami Marlins took Liam Hicks from the Detroit Tigers with the second pick in 2024, and he was the first backstop taken in the major league phase since Luis Torrens in 2016. It’s not as if Alfonzo is considered a good enough defensive backstop where a team can stash him as a second-string catcher, either.