3 prospects the Pittsburgh Pirates could risk losing in the Rule 5 draft

Every year is an opportunity for a Rule 5-eligible prospect to secure a 40-man roster spot. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a handful of noteworthy top prospects who are currently going to be eligible for the draft if the Pirates don’t select them to the 40-man roster. Any prospect who was signed at 18 or younger and has five or more years of minor league experience, or signed at 19 or older with at least four years of experience (and is not on the 40-man roster), is eligible for selection. 

Last time, we looked at some Pirates prospects who they’ll likely end up protecting (and guys the Pirates would be making a big mistake not adding to the 40-man roster). But not every Rule 5 eligible prospect has done quite as well in their showcase year. In these three cases, the Pirates are more likely to leave them unprotected and risk losing them in the draft.

3 Pirates prospects who could be gone in end-of-season Rule 5 Draft

Jack Brannigan

Jack Brannigan was selected out of Notre Dame as a two-way player in the third round of the 2022 draft. His first full season in the minor leagues was in 2023, and he made a great first impression. He fell just a single home run shy of a 20/20 season, with 19 homers and 24 steals in 84 games. This also included a .916 OPS, .415 wOBA, and 143 wRC+ between A-Ball Bradenton and High-A Greensboro.

Brannigan’s encore also included some quality numbers, as he put up a .236/.344/.490 triple-slash, .378 wOBA, and 130 wRC+ over 290 plate appearances. He walked in 11.7% of his trips to the plate, and cut his K% down from 29.9% in ‘23 to 26.1% in ‘24. Despite the drop in Ks, he maintained a nearly identical .252 isolated slugging percentage, compared to .249 in ‘23.

What was even more promising was Brannigan’s defensive versatility. Coming out of college, Brannigan was a 3B/RHP. He has still seen plenty of innings at the hot corner, but shortstop has become his primary position. He projects as an above-average defender with above-average speed, so he could stick at an up-the-middle position long term. Brannigan was hitting the upper-90s with his fastball as a college pitcher, so his arm is plenty strong enough to make deep throws.

But 2025 has been a rough year for Brannigan. He has hit .225/.329/.358 over 237 plate appearances at Altoona, which is the fewest he has had in a single season since getting drafted. For what it’s worth, this is about league average production, as the Eastern League is a very pitcher-friendly environment this year (league average OPS is just .681), which has led to Brannigan’s wRC+ coming in at 103. But more worrisome has been his injury. Brannigan suffered a labrum tear in July, requiring surgery and ending his season.

Brannigan’s ability to play three positions well, with his primary home being shortstop, automatically makes him an interesting prospect. His above-average power and speed are also intriguing. His fielding alone could put him on a team’s radar, let alone the fact that he has the ceiling of a 20/20 infielder. A team may see him as someone they could stash on their bench as a utility man.

The Washington Nationals did something similar with Nasim Nunez in 2024. He only appeared in 51 games with the Nats, and started just a single game through the end of July. This isn’t what usually happens, though, and Nunez is a unique case. Brannigan's injury throws a genuine wrench in things, and the Pirates are more than likely safe to leave him floating in the breeze.

Still, since the precedent was set, you can’t rule it out entirely with Brannigan.

Omar Alfonzo

Omar Alfonzo had a breakout season in 2024. He turned in a .760 OPS, .361 wOBA, and 118 wRC+ over 451 plate appearances between Bradenton and Greensboro. It was only his age-20 season, and he was the 23rd youngest High-A player with at least 90 plate appearances (he had 97). Alfonzo then opened the 2025 season at Greensboro once again and got off to a scorching hot start.

His first 284 trips to the plate saw him bat .261/.389/.440 with a .392 wOBA and 141 wRC+. Alfonzo hit 11 home runs with a .179 isolated slugging percentage and walked at an outstanding 15.5% rate. He fell just two home runs shy of his 2024 home run total, but in over 160 fewer plate appearances. The only downside was his 27.8% strikeout percentage. He ended his tenure at Greensboro with a 151 wRC+ over his last month of play, which led to a bump to Altoona.

Unfortunately, that hot start to the year hasn’t been able to carry over since his promotion. It has only been 138 plate appearances, but Alfonzo has just a .208/.277/.336 triple-slash. His walk rate has dropped to 8.7%, while his strikeout rate has risen to 31.9%. Alfonzo has just two home runs since getting to Altoona. Even with the diminished offense across the Eastern League, Alfonzo still has just a 78 wRC+.

Alfonzo has shown plus power potential throughout the minor leagues. Last year, his 92.8 MPH exit velocity at Bradenton was the best at A-Ball. He also has a strong arm with the potential to stick behind the plate long term. His hit tool is his most significant question mark, given how often he has struck out.

While Alfonzo will likely miss out on a 40-man roster spot, the chances he gets selected are arguably the lowest of any player covered in today’s article. The good thing is that catchers and first basemen are not often chosen in the Rule 5 draft, which are Alfonzo’s two primary positions. Only two catchers and three first basemen have been taken in the Major League phase of the draft since 2015. Still, he does have a high offensive ceiling and can play a premium position, which might intrigue some teams.

Anthony Solometo

The last two seasons have not been great for Anthony Solometo, to say the least. 2024 was a rough go for the left-hander, as he put up a 5.37 ERA, 5.40 FIP, and 1.52 WHIP over 70.1 innings of work. His usually excellent command wasn’t on point in 2024, with a 12.4% BB%. It also didn’t help that he wasn’t getting many strikeouts either, with just a 16.9% K%. 

This year, Solometo has barely gotten through an entire game’s worth of innings so far. It has basically been a lost season for the lefty. He has only logged 10.2 innings of work. His first injured list stint came in mid-April, as he was diagnosed with a shoulder injury. Then, during a rehab stint in late June at Bradenton, Solometo only faced six batters before his day was over. He has not pitched since. 

But it’s not that long ago that Solometo was considered one of the Pirates’ best pitching prospects in a system chock full of talented arms. In 2023, he had a 3.26 ERA, 8.6% free pass percentage, and 26.2% strikeout rate over 110.1 innings of work. He made it to Altoona that season and was the sixth youngest Double-A pitcher to make at least 10 starts. It also helped that he put up about league-average numbers at Double-A. Heading into 2024, MLB Pipeline ranked Solometo as a top 100 prospect, placing him at No. 82.

Prior to his injury-laden 2025, Solometo was a low-arm slot lefty with a fastball that sat around 91-94 MPH. He also showed off a two-seam fastball with similar velocity, a mid-80s slider, and a low-80s changeup. Solometo’s command was once his strongest suit, but he has struggled to locate in the zone the last two seasons.

Solometo may be injured, but it wouldn’t be the first time a team took a chance on an oft-injured pitcher in the Rule 5 draft. Pitchers are easier to stash on a roster than position players, given they can be used in low leverage and can go days at a time without pitching while not completely wasting a roster spot. There is definitely a chance a team would try to utilize Solometo as a reliever. His stuff would likely play up out of the bullpen, and he might excel in that sort of role if given the chance (especially on a losing team out of the spotlight with a roster spot to spare).

Plus, such a move may help preserve his health. The one thing that may help the Pirates out is that there will likely end up being more intriguing (and healthier) names available come the Rule 5 draft.