3 subtle things Pirates fans must watch for during spring training

Spring training is right around the corner, and the Pirates have multiple guys rostered who performed below expectations in 2024, ultimately hurting their chances of contending that season. Their underwhelming offseason shows that they believe in these players to rebound and contribute towards getting this team over the hump of the bottom of the NL Central.

Although 2024 was an extremely disappointing season for guys like Ke'Bryan Hayes and Jack Suwinski, the team's hitting coaching change provides optimism that they can improve. These two lacked some specific aspects of their game that threw them off from their 2023 success, so this spring, it will be important to pay attention to a few specific numbers to see if Hayes and Suwinski can get on the right track.

Adding on to these two incumbent bats, there is another new guy at Pirates camp who brings a few question marks to the table. With all this in mind, let's take a look at what fans should be watching out for this spring training from these three players.

Pirates fans need to pay close attention to these three details during spring training.

Hayes' issue in 2024 was his launch angle. Back in 2023, when he emerged as a solid hitter in the lineup, his average launch angle was 13.2 degrees. In 2024, that fell to 4.8 degrees, which is a major problem. That indicates that he was getting on top the ball too much, instead of getting it on the sweet spot, which is between 8 and 32 degrees. In fact, he hit the ball in the launch angle sweet spot just 29.9% of the time, which was remarkably low in the eighth percentile.

Additionally, his ground ball rate took a major leap from 41.8% in 2023 to 52.7% in 2024, backing up the idea that his launch angle issues were preventing him from hitting the ball in the air consistently. Getting that back down below 45% is the ideal spot for Hayes - and the lower, the better, since he has posted solid exit velocities in his career when he has contacted the ball well. In 2023, his average exit velocity was 92.2, which was in the top 10% of the league.

Clearly, if Hayes can get that launch angle back up, he will hit fewer ground balls. When he gets the ball in the air more, he has success, as his hard contact leads to extra base hits (15 home runs, 31 doubles, and seven triples in 2023).

Next is Suwinski, who was given the starting center field spot in 2024, but put together a sub .600 OPS, leading to his demotion to Triple-A. That season represented a major surprise to Pittsburgh and a stark reversal; they believed he was a breakout candidate after slugging 26 homers in 2023. Unfortunately, his plate discipline disappeared in 2024. While his whiff rate improved, Suwinski's walk rate dropped, his chase rate worsened, and he stopped barreling balls up.

Suwinski lost all his plate discipline, which led to his funk at the plate. His barrel rate went from one of the best in baseball at 15.7% to an average 8.8%. Along with that, his average exit velocity went from 90.5 mph to 88.9.

Due to his approach changing, he declined at the plate as well. Something to watch from him this spring is whether he can get his barrel rate back up over 10% and his average exit velocity back up to 89.5. Ideally, getting his walk rate up would be best, too, but that will be tough to judge in a small spring training sample featuring plenty of wild and rusty pitchers, the likes of which he'll never face in MLB action.

Newly acquired first baseman Spencer Horwitz has plenty to prove, too. He put together a great 2024 season in Toronto, but he lacked one key thing that is holding him back from grabbing an everyday job and running with it: his production against left-handed pitching left him borderline unplayable against same-handers.

Last season, Horwitz posted a wRC+ of 53 with an OPS of .522 against left-handed pitching. The Pirates cannot rely on platoons at every position, so they need Horwitz to emerge as an everyday guy at first base. This spring, paying attention to Horwitz's at bats against left-handers will be very important. Expect the Pirates to potentially force the issue a bit here to see if they can increase his comfort in games that don't count.