3 trade mistakes Pirates can't afford to make this offseason

The MLB offseason represents a time period where the Pirates will attempt to find pieces that can bring winning baseball back to Pittsburgh. Given the tight budgets that Ben Cherington typically has to work around, there are plenty of alternative routes towards upgrading teams, aside from signing free agents.

Cherington should focus on making trades this offseason, as the Pirates have a surplus of pitching depth throughout their organization. These trades should be made to improve the offense and bullpen. The front office may be eager to make these deals, but they should avoid rushing and making these three mistakes.

3 mistakes Ben Cherington must avoid to successfully reshape the Pirates via trade this offseason

The first mistake the Pirates must avoid making is retaining southpaw Bailey Falter. Initially acquired at the 2023 MLB trade deadline, Falter had a solid season in 2024, but there are signs of a regression afoot below the hood, and the Pirates can afford to move on from him without taking a major hit to their pitching depth.

Falter posted a 4.43 earned run average (ERA) across 148.1 innings with a WHIP of 1.29 and a FIP of 4.30 last season. His expected stats in terms of both ERA and FIP were both worse, coming in at 4.90 and 4.71 respectively. His -8 pitching run value was very poor, along with his +1 fastball run value. The positive from the fastball is solid, but the problem is he throws it nearly 50% of the time. It is not a dominant enough pitch to rely upon as much as he does.

Additionally, Falter gives up solid contact very consistently. His opponents' average exit velocity (91.9 mph), barrel percentage (9%), and hard hit rate (41.3%) all ranked below the 30th percentile last season. These are not convincing numbers for Falter, which is why the Pirates should find a suitor for him. It would be a mistake to retain him with the upgrades on the verge of coming up from a dominant Indianapolis rotation.

Another mistake would be to trade locked up third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes. Financially, the Pirates cannot afford a player worth $8 million dollars to have an OPS below .600, which is what Hayes produced in 2024.

His bat last season was terrible, but the hiring of Matt Hague provides optimism that he will return to his 2023 form at the plate. Hayes' launch angle in 2024 was 4.8 degrees, while in 2023 it was at 13.2 degrees. Hague's offense last year in Toronto averaged a 13.4 degree launch angle. A quick change to his launch angle will help him put the ball in the air more, instead of on the ground. His ground ball (GB) rate was at 52.7% and his fly ball (FB) rate was at 28.2%. In 2023, when he had success, his GB rate was all the way down at 41.8% and his FB rate was up to 39%.

Additionally, his fielding was excellent at the hot corner. His glove will always be great, but his bat is looking like it could turn a corner under Hague. That is why it would be a mistake to trade Hayes.

The last mistake would be to trade for Jake McCarthy from the Diamondbacks. He put together a solid season in 2024, but Statcast indicates that it was luck that carried his success.

In 2024, McCarthy had a wRC+ of 110 with an OPS of .749 and eight home runs. That isn't bad, but his average exit velocity ranked dead last in the league at 84.5 miles per hour. Additionally, his barrel rate was just 2.7%, ranking in the fourth percentile, and his hard hit rate was at 24.5%, ranking in the second percentile. He does not make good contact off that bat, which indicates a major regression en route, and that is why it would be a mistake for the Pirates to acquire him.

If Cherington avoids making these mistakes, it could turn out to be a good offseason. The Pirates should sell Falter before he regresses and hurts the team, Hayes has a strong chance of improving and will help the team in 2025, and avoiding an acquisition of a red flag player in McCarthy is essential.