3 underrated Statcast standout free agents the Pittsburgh Pirates should pursue

Statcast was launched in 2015, giving baseball fans a new way to look at the game. Since then, every pitch, batted ball, swing, and play has been tracked at the big-league level. Statcast can also provide better insight into how a player actually performed, and can help identify players who may be underrated by traditional means based on what their metrics indicate they should be doing. Even if the Pittsburgh Pirates have more to spend this offseason than they usually do, they’ll still likely try to look for bargains on the free agent market. Given how important Statcast is, they might use it to find a worthwhile player whose underlying metrics suggest they’re much better than their surface numbers suggest. These players could improve upon their 2025 showings with a few simple tweaks, or even just a little bit of luck.

3 under-the-radar free agent targets the Pirates should pursue that excelled in Statcast metrics.

Josh Bell

If the Pirates don’t reunite with Andrew McCutchen for another year, they could look to reunite with former All-Star Josh Bell instead, who they traded during the 2020-2021 offseason. On the surface, Bell had yet another Bell-esque season. He hit .237/.325/.417 with a .324 wOBA and 107 wRC+. Bell walked at a solid 10.7% rate, but put up a career-best 16.5% K%. He hit for some pop, with 22 homers over 533 plate appearances, and an .179 isolated slugging percentage. Those are solid numbers overall, albeit nothing that jumps off the page.

But Statcast suggests that 2025 was one of, if not Bell’s most promising seasons since his days with the Pirates. He was in the 88th percentile of xwOBA at .359, and the 81st percentile of xSLG% at .474. The last time he ranked above the 85th percentile in xwOBA was in 2019. His 12% barrel rate is also his best mark since 2019. Bell’s 47% hard-hit rate is just the third time he’s been over 45% for his career.

Bell is nearly a DH-only option at this point in his career. His defense at first base has always been poor, but 2025 was his worst season yet. He only tallied 253 innings at the position, and had -5 defensive runs saved and -4 outs above average. This also marked the fewest innings he has ever played at first base, aside from 2016, when he appeared in only 45 MLB games. That also includes 2020, which was only a 60-game season.

The Pirates need power, and Bell clearly still has plenty left in the tank. 2026 will be his age-33 season, and while he hasn’t had a standout campaign since 2022, these are his best Statcast numbers since his last (full) season with the Pirates. If the Pirates do not have another McCutchen reunion on the docket, Bell would be another reunion they should definitely entertain.

Kolby Allard

Kolby Allard was once one of baseball’s premier pitching prospects in the late 2010s after the Atlanta Braves drafted him 15th overall in 2015. However, he's seemingly failed to find his footing in the major leagues since his 2018 debut. Allard had served as a depth pitcher the last few years, but seems to have found something that works this past season with the Cleveland Guardians.

Allard pitched 65 innings last year as a long-reliever/spot starter, with 33 appearances and two starts. Overall, he put up a 2.63 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. The left-hander did not strike out many batters, with a K% of just 16.2%. However, his 5.4% walk rate was the 11th lowest of any left-handed pitcher who tossed at least 60 innings this year. Allard was not home run prone either, with a sparkling 0.69 HR/9 ratio.

Allard ranked above the 70th percentile across many Statcast metrics last year. He ranked the best in barrel percentage at 5.7%, a mark that fell in the 87th percentile. Allard was also in the 83rd percentile of hard-hit rate at 35.9%, and the 78th percentile of exit velocity, coming in at 88.2 MPH. His +5 fastball run value was in the 71st percentile as well. His changeup was also in the 71st percentile of offspeed run value at +2. Of the four pitches he used at least 10% of the time in 2025, three had an xwOBA below .300 (his four-seamer, changeup, and curveball). xERA liked his performance as well; that metric sat at 3.33, which was in the 79th percentile.

Since Allard was outrighted off the Guardians’ roster before he elected free agency, he is now a minor league free agent. Right now, the only left-handed pitchers on the Pirates’ 40-man roster are top prospect Hunter Barco and 2025 trade deadline acquisition Evan Sisk. Given the Pirates’ dearth of MLB-ready left-handed pitching depth, adding Allard could give them a much-needed lefty reliever.

Caleb Thielbar

Allard is more of a lefty long reliever than a higher-leverage arm, so if the Pirates wanted a southpaw they could count on for late-inning situations, then Caleb Thielbar would be an under-the-radar option to pursue instead. Despite 2025 being his age-38 campaign, it was still one of his best seasons, and he showed plenty under the hood to suggest he still has fuel left in the tank.

Thielbar logged 58 innings with the Chicago Cubs while pitching to a 2.64 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and 0.88 WHIP, all of which are career lows in seasons where he's thrown at least 50 frames. The veteran lefty struck out just over a quarter of opponents with a 25.5% K%, and only handed out a free pass 5.9% of the time. Thielbar was not prone to allowing the long ball either, with a HR/9 ratio of only 0.78.

Statcast metrics loved Thielbar’s 2025. He was above the 90th percentile of xERA (2.49, best among free agent pitchers who threw at least 20 innings), xBA (.202), hard-hit rate (31.8%), and breaking pitch run value (+9). Many other stats still saw him as a well-above-average reliever. His 87.9 MPH exit velocity was in the 82nd percentile, and his 6.6% barrel rate was in the 78th percentile. He got batters to chase outside the zone nearly a third of the time, with a 32.2% chase rate (88th percentile). His fastball run value at +5 was in the 71st percentile. All four of Thielbar’s pitches held batters to an xwOBA below .300, with one offering throwing off batters so much that they managed a xwOBA below .200 against them (his impressive slider).

Thielbar recorded 25 holds, and most of his innings came in the seventh inning, so he has experience as a set-up man. Given how little the Pirates have when it comes to left-handed pitching depth, Thielbar would be the exact sort of lefty bullpen arm the Pirates need most. He can be a lefty set-up option to offset the likes of Dauri Moreta, Isaac Mattson, and Carmen Mlodzinski, all of whom are right-handed.