4 players with options the Pittsburgh Pirates should monitor

The offseason is quickly approaching. At the end of this year's Postseason, teams will soon need to figure out which players on club options they should bring back, let go in free agency, or buy out. The same goes for players weighing their player options. Once these get resolved, the free agent market can further expand.

There are definitely some players the Pittsburgh Pirates should keep an eye on who are currently tied to options. If they reach free agency, they should be on the Pirates' radar as they fill holes and reinforce current weak points. The Pirates should go after these four players if they hit the open market.

Ryan O'Hearn

Ryan O'Hearn was one of the worst hitters in baseball heading into 2023. After a hot start to his career with the Kansas City Royals in 2018, O'Hearn went on to bat just .211/.282/.351 with a .275 wOBA and 68 wRC+ in 901 plate appearances from 2019-2022. The Baltimore Orioles then acquired him for cash, DFA'd him just days after the trade, and despite all of that, O'Hearn put together two very solid seasons for the O's.

O'Hearn has batted .275/.329/.450 with a .334 wOBA and 119 wRC+ since joining the Orioles. He struck out over 26% of the time with the Royals, but has K'd in just 17.5% of his plate appearances with the Orioles. O'Hearn greatly improved his plate discipline from 2023 to 2024, going from a 22.3% strikeout rate from his first year in Baltimore to just 14%, while his walk rate more than doubled, rising from just 4.1% to 9.3%. On top of all that, Hearn has hit for above-average power, with 29 homers over his last 862 plate appearances and a .175 isolated slugging percentage.

O'Hearn's numbers under the hood were also promising. He was above the 80th percentile in each of xwOBA (.352), xBA (.280), and xSLG% (.467). The slugger also saw his chase rate go from the 33rd percentile last year to the 65th percentile, while his whiff rate dropped from 23.3% to just 18.8%.

O'Hearn split his time at first base and designated hitter, with a handful of games in the corner outfield. He is not considered a particularly great defensive first baseman, with -2 outs above average at the position this year, but he did grade out positively last season with +4 OAA. First base is his best position, but he can play an outfield corner when needed.

The only knock on O'Hearn are his platoon splits. He batted .264/.338/.439 with a 123 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but O'Hearn slashed just .262/.295/.310 with a 75 wRC+ when tasked with facing a southpaw. The Orioles maximized his value against right-handed pitching, as over 90% of his plate appearances came against opposite-handed hurlers. 

Notably, O'Hearn could also benefit from a move away from Camden Yards. In the last two seasons, he has a 91 and 103 wRC+ at home in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Onn the road, he has wRC+ marks of 142 and 134. PNC Park is also considered more hitter friendly for left-handed batters compared to Camden.

O'Hearn has a club option worth $8 million with no buyout. The Orioles have myriad infielders, so they might forgo the club option for a platoon first baseman, even if said platoon first baseman is decent. If O'Hearn hits the free agent market, the Pirates need to jump all over this opportunity.

Jorge Polanco

Jorge Polanco was a staple in the Minnesota Twins' infield from 2016 through 2023. But last offseason, the Twins felt it was time to move on from the veteran switch-hitter and traded him to the Seattle Mariners. However, his first year in Seattle was not great. He batted just .213/.296/.355 with a .287 wOBA and 92 wRC+. Polanco struck out 29.2% of the time and only hit 16 home runs, sporting a .141 isolated slugging percentage in 469 plate appearances. One of the few positives is that he still managed to draw walks at a respectable 9.8% rate.

Polanco's season wasn't good, but there are some decent numbers under the hood that could indicate a rebound next year. He had some drastic home/away splits. At T-Mobile Park, he had just a .606 OPS, .269 wOBA, and 86 wRC+. When playing on the road, he had a much better .698 OPS, .304 wOBA, and 98 wRC+. Those numbers may still not be great, but there's a pretty drastic difference.  Polanco also had a sizeable difference between his wOBA and xwOBA of .311 on the season. Add in the injury that nagged him and was recently addressed surgically, and the picture becomes clearer.

This makes sense, given the Mariners' home park is by far the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball. According to Baseball Savant, Tropicana Field has the second lowest park factor of 96. T-Mobile has a park factor of just 91, with the lower the number indicating how pitcher-friendly the environment is. It is also the only park with no offensive factors that favor hitters. Meanwhile, Target Field, the Minnesota Twins' home park, is considered the sixth most hitter-friendly park in baseball.

It's not as if Polanco doesn't have a good track record of hitting. either. From 2021 to 2023, he batted .255/.333/.462 with a .342 wOBA and 120 wRC+ with the Minnesota Twins. He only struck out 21% of the time with a 10.1% walk rate, and hit for a decent amount of pop. His isolated slugging percentage was above .200 at .207.

Defensively, Polanco has never graded out as a great glove up the middle, and 2024 was no different. He had -1 defensive run saved and -10 outs above average at the keystone. He has a ton of experience at shortstop as well as the hot corner. 

The Mariners currently hold a $12 million club option with a $750K buyout. Polanco could definitely benefit from a new ballpark. PNC Park is similar to Target Field in terms of park factor. Polanco could help ease the workload for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Nick Gonzales up the middle next year. Plus, with Ke'Bryan Hayes recovering from a herniated disc, Polanco could help mitigate some of his strain at the hot corner. 

Andrew Chafin

If the Mets' decision over Maton is up in the air because of how strong his ending to the season was, then Chafin's team option is up in the air because of how poorly he ended 2024. Chafin signed with the Detroit Tigers last offseason after splitting 2023 with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers, and he was a quality left-handed bullpen arm for the Tigs to start the year. 

He owned a 3.16 ERA, 2.55 FIP, and 1.38 WHIP heading into the trade deadline. Chafin struck out over 30% of his opponents with a 30.9% K%, and only allowed home runs at an 0.49-per-9 rate. His 9.9% walk rate wasn't great, but overall, he had a strong season up to this particular breaking point. Considering he only allowed a 6.3% barrel rate but a .355 batting average on balls in play, Chafin had the potential to be even better.

But the second half of the season did not go as planned. Chafin was traded to the Texas Rangers, but fell apart down the stretch. He pitched 19.1 more innings, working to the tune of a 4.19 ERA, 5.33 FIP, and 1.66 WHIP. His strikeout rate fell to 23.8%, while his HR/9 rose to 1.40. Far more worrisome was his walk rate jumping through the roof. He dished out a free pass to a whopping 17.9% of opponents while in a Rangers uniform.

One of the few positives is that he continued to induce weak contact. Chafin induced an average exit velocity of 86.1 MPH with a 6.1% barrel rate. His BABIP returned to a much more sustainable .304 rate, but aside from that, Chafin's time with the Rangers this year did not go very well.

Now, the Rangers face a similar dilemma to the Mets' Maton issue. Do they pick up Chafin's option (which is worth $6.5 million) and bet on his good half season, or do they buy him out for $500K? Pirates fans should definitely keep an eye on this one. The Bucs only have one left-handed reliever on the 40-man roster (Joey Wentz). Chafin would be an intriguing lefty for the team to pursue if the Rangers end up buying him out.