4 potential non-tender candidates the Pittsburgh Pirates should keep an eye on

Gregory Soto

Gregory Soto was a two-time All-Star for the Detroit Tigers in 2021 and 2022. In those two years, the hard-throwing southpaw reliever had a 3.34 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP. Soto struggled to limit walks with a 13.7% BB% but struck out 25.2% of opponents with a 0.65 HR/9 rate through 124 innings of work.

Soto has since been traded to the Philadelphia Phillies and the Baltimore Orioles the last two seasons. There have been a handful of positives. Soto has limited walks better with a 9.9% BB% while keeping a similar 26.3% strikeout rate, 0.79 HR/9 rate, and 1.34 WHIP. But he’s seen his ERA jump to 4.53 over his last 113 innings pitched.

But Soto has been a pitcher who consistently underperforms his expected stats. Despite having an ERA hovering around 4.50 the last two seasons, the southpaw has a 3.83 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA. He has also posted an above-average DRA- in the last two seasons. Last season, Soto was above the 90th percentile of xERA, xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG%. Soto also has limited quality contact, holding opponents to an 88 MPH exit velocity and a 6.6% barrel rate.

Soto’s stuff is undoubtedly good. Stuff+ had Soto at 113, which was the eighth-best among left-handed relievers with at least 50 innings pitched this year out of the pen. His four-seamer and sinker averaged 97-98 MPH. Soto’s slider consistently induces a whiff rate hovering around 50%.

The Pirates have just one left-handed reliever under contract for 2025 on the 40-man roster, and it’s Joey Wentz. Soto is projected to earn $5.6 million in arbitration. Soto has experience in high-leverage. He’s shown more promise than his ERA may tell you. If the O’s end up non-tendering Soto, the Pirates should pick him up.