4 potential non-tender candidates the Pittsburgh Pirates should keep an eye on

During the MLB offseason, the free agent pool can expand by a lot in November, when teams have to decide to tender a player a contract. If a player is non-tendered, they become a free agent. Oftentimes, many notable players with a decent track record become available for any team to sign.

Although the decision to tender or non-tender arbitration-eligible players is still about a month away, the Pittsburgh Pirates should already start getting an idea of who could hit free agency and who would make a good fit for the team. These players were identified as non-tender candidates by MLB Trade Rumors in their offseason outlook series. 

4 potential non-tender candidates the Pirates should keep an eye on

Dane Dunning

Dane Dunning has been a stalwart for the Texas Rangers for the last four seasons. Originally acquired in the Lance Lynn trade that sent the former St. Louis Cardinals All-Star to the Chicago White Sox, Dunning is coming off the worst season of his career thus far. However, he has a solid track record and could be someone the Pirates target if the Rangers ultimately non-tender him.

Dunning pitched 95 innings this year, working to a 5.31 ERA, 5.17 FIP, and 1.44 WHIP. He had a 21.6% strikeout rate but put up a career-worst 9.5% walk rate and 1.71 HR/9. Dunning was susceptible to quality contact. Both the 90.4 MPH exit velocity and 10.9% barrel rate he allowed were also career worsts. Not only did Dunning land on the IL twice, but he was optioned to Triple-A at the end of August.

But Dunning posted some solid numbers from 2021 through 2023. Across those three seasons, the former top prospect owned a 4.18 ERA, 4.24 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP. He only struck out 20.8% of opponents but carried an 8.4% walk rate and 1.09 HR/9. Dunning’s strength was inducing ground balls with a GB% of 50.7%. 

Dunning could make a good long reliever. He has consistently been better when facing an opponent once. This year, Dunning had a 3.89 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and .321 opponent wOBA first time through the order. The second time through, he saw his ERA, FIP, and opponent wOBA rise to 6.44, 4.79, and .331, respectively. After that, he has a 9.82 ERA, 12.17 FIP, and .521 wOBA.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Dunning to make about $4.4 million in arbitration. Dunning would likely fit in a long reliever/spot starter role for the Pirates if he is non-tendered and picked up by the Bucs. The Pirates could definitely use another bullpen arm, and one that could go two to three innings at a time would be valuable.

Gregory Soto

Gregory Soto was a two-time All-Star for the Detroit Tigers in 2021 and 2022. In those two years, the hard-throwing southpaw reliever had a 3.34 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP. Soto struggled to limit walks with a 13.7% BB% but struck out 25.2% of opponents with a 0.65 HR/9 rate through 124 innings of work.

Soto has since been traded to the Philadelphia Phillies and the Baltimore Orioles the last two seasons. There have been a handful of positives. Soto has limited walks better with a 9.9% BB% while keeping a similar 26.3% strikeout rate, 0.79 HR/9 rate, and 1.34 WHIP. But he’s seen his ERA jump to 4.53 over his last 113 innings pitched.

But Soto has been a pitcher who consistently underperforms his expected stats. Despite having an ERA hovering around 4.50 the last two seasons, the southpaw has a 3.83 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA. He has also posted an above-average DRA- in the last two seasons. Last season, Soto was above the 90th percentile of xERA, xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG%. Soto also has limited quality contact, holding opponents to an 88 MPH exit velocity and a 6.6% barrel rate.

Soto’s stuff is undoubtedly good. Stuff+ had Soto at 113, which was the eighth-best among left-handed relievers with at least 50 innings pitched this year out of the pen. His four-seamer and sinker averaged 97-98 MPH. Soto’s slider consistently induces a whiff rate hovering around 50%.

The Pirates have just one left-handed reliever under contract for 2025 on the 40-man roster, and it’s Joey Wentz. Soto is projected to earn $5.6 million in arbitration. Soto has experience in high-leverage. He’s shown more promise than his ERA may tell you. If the O’s end up non-tendering Soto, the Pirates should pick him up.

Hunter Harvey

Hunter Harvey broke out with the Washington Nationals, pitching to a 3.17 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP for the Washington Nationals. Throughout the 145 innings he pitched for the Nats, Harvey struck out 27.8% of batters with a walk rate of only 6.4%. He was also not home run prone, only allowing a dozen dingers for a 0.75 HR/9 rate. 

Harvey’s strong numbers with the Nats made him a prime trade candidate this past July. He had proven himself as a high-leverage reliever across two and a half seasons. That led to him getting traded to the Kansas City Royals, but things quickly went awry for Harvey after the trade.

The right-hander would pitch 5.2 very poor innings for the Royals before landing on the 10-day injured list with mid-back tightness in early August. That would be the only innings Harvey would appear on the mound in a Royals uniform, as he was not activated off the IL in September or during the Royals’ playoff run.

Harvey’s time in Kansas City didn’t go according to plan, but if the Royals were to non-tender him, he’d be a prime rebound candidate for 2024. After all, he was pitching well as late as the first half of this past season. Coming off a down season, Harvey could be a huge low-risk/high-reward candidate if the Royals move on from the righty reliever.

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