4 potential non-tender candidates the Pittsburgh Pirates should keep an eye on

During the MLB offseason, the free agent pool can expand by a lot in November, when teams have to decide to tender a player a contract. If a player is non-tendered, they become a free agent. Oftentimes, many notable players with a decent track record become available for any team to sign.

Although the decision to tender or non-tender arbitration-eligible players is still about a month away, the Pittsburgh Pirates should already start getting an idea of who could hit free agency and who would make a good fit for the team. These players were identified as non-tender candidates by MLB Trade Rumors in their offseason outlook series. 

4 potential non-tender candidates the Pirates should keep an eye on

Dane Dunning

Dane Dunning has been a stalwart for the Texas Rangers for the last four seasons. Originally acquired in the Lance Lynn trade that sent the former St. Louis Cardinals All-Star to the Chicago White Sox, Dunning is coming off the worst season of his career thus far. However, he has a solid track record and could be someone the Pirates target if the Rangers ultimately non-tender him.

Dunning pitched 95 innings this year, working to a 5.31 ERA, 5.17 FIP, and 1.44 WHIP. He had a 21.6% strikeout rate but put up a career-worst 9.5% walk rate and 1.71 HR/9. Dunning was susceptible to quality contact. Both the 90.4 MPH exit velocity and 10.9% barrel rate he allowed were also career worsts. Not only did Dunning land on the IL twice, but he was optioned to Triple-A at the end of August.

But Dunning posted some solid numbers from 2021 through 2023. Across those three seasons, the former top prospect owned a 4.18 ERA, 4.24 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP. He only struck out 20.8% of opponents but carried an 8.4% walk rate and 1.09 HR/9. Dunning’s strength was inducing ground balls with a GB% of 50.7%. 

Dunning could make a good long reliever. He has consistently been better when facing an opponent once. This year, Dunning had a 3.89 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and .321 opponent wOBA first time through the order. The second time through, he saw his ERA, FIP, and opponent wOBA rise to 6.44, 4.79, and .331, respectively. After that, he has a 9.82 ERA, 12.17 FIP, and .521 wOBA.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Dunning to make about $4.4 million in arbitration. Dunning would likely fit in a long reliever/spot starter role for the Pirates if he is non-tendered and picked up by the Bucs. The Pirates could definitely use another bullpen arm, and one that could go two to three innings at a time would be valuable.

Gregory Soto

Gregory Soto was a two-time All-Star for the Detroit Tigers in 2021 and 2022. In those two years, the hard-throwing southpaw reliever had a 3.34 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP. Soto struggled to limit walks with a 13.7% BB% but struck out 25.2% of opponents with a 0.65 HR/9 rate through 124 innings of work.

Soto has since been traded to the Philadelphia Phillies and the Baltimore Orioles the last two seasons. There have been a handful of positives. Soto has limited walks better with a 9.9% BB% while keeping a similar 26.3% strikeout rate, 0.79 HR/9 rate, and 1.34 WHIP. But he’s seen his ERA jump to 4.53 over his last 113 innings pitched.

But Soto has been a pitcher who consistently underperforms his expected stats. Despite having an ERA hovering around 4.50 the last two seasons, the southpaw has a 3.83 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA. He has also posted an above-average DRA- in the last two seasons. Last season, Soto was above the 90th percentile of xERA, xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG%. Soto also has limited quality contact, holding opponents to an 88 MPH exit velocity and a 6.6% barrel rate.

Soto’s stuff is undoubtedly good. Stuff+ had Soto at 113, which was the eighth-best among left-handed relievers with at least 50 innings pitched this year out of the pen. His four-seamer and sinker averaged 97-98 MPH. Soto’s slider consistently induces a whiff rate hovering around 50%.

The Pirates have just one left-handed reliever under contract for 2025 on the 40-man roster, and it’s Joey Wentz. Soto is projected to earn $5.6 million in arbitration. Soto has experience in high-leverage. He’s shown more promise than his ERA may tell you. If the O’s end up non-tendering Soto, the Pirates should pick him up.

Chas McCormick

Chas McCormick had a career year in 2023. After two solid seasons to open his MLB career, he posted career bests in all three triple-slash stats, batting .273/.353/.489 with a .362 wOBA and 133 wRC+ through 457 plate appearances. McCormick fell just one stolen base shy of a 20/20 season, with 22 dingers, a .216 isolated slugging percentage, and 19 stolen bases. He had a respectable 8.8% walk rate, which helped offset a less-than-impressive 25.6% K%. 

On top of that, McCormick had proven to be an outstanding defensive outfielder. From his rookie season in 2021 through 2023, he had +17 defensive runs saved, a +9.3 UZR/150, and +22 outs above average. He rotated between all three outfield positions while providing about league-average level arm strength.

Hopes were obviously high for McCormick in 2024, but he failed to even come close to any of his previous seasons. The outfielder hit a meager .211/.271/.306 with a .257 wOBA and 66 wRC+ in an injury-limited 267 plate appearances. After showing off above-average power in these three prior seasons, McCormick only went yard five times with a .095 isolated slugging percentage. His strikeout rate remained at a relatively similar level at 27%, but his walk rate fell to a career-worst 6.6%.

Of the few positives, McCormick was still a solid defensive outfielder. He had +5 OAA while both is arm strength and average distance covered in his jump did not change from last year. But this wasn’t enough to keep McCormick in the Major Leagues, as he was optioned to Triple-A after the Houston Astros signed Jason Heyward.

Unfortunately, an option to the minor leagues wasn’t the only thing that plagued McCormick this season. He missed a good chunk of May with a hamstring injury, but he returned to action later that month. Then, after getting sent to Triple-A, he suffered a fractured hand. 

MLB Trade Rumors projects McCormick to make $3.3 million in arbitration this off-season. McCormick’s defense remains a strong suit, and given that he can play all three outfield positions with grace, he’d make a solid fourth outfielder at worst. The Pirates could definitely use a consistently good defensive outfielder, and if his bat rebounds, he could become a regular once again.