4 reasons why David Bednar could rebound with Pirates in 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates closer David Bednar entered 2024 with big expectations. From 2021 through 2023, Bednar produced a 2.25 ERA, 2.56 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP. Bednar struck out over 30% of opponents with a 31.2% K% while only handing out walks at a 7.7% rate. Home runs were a non-issue, given his 0.60 HR/9 and 5.9% barrel rate across his first three full seasons of playing time with the Pirates.

After leading the league in saves and making his second consecutive All-Star game, Bednar had some high expectations in his hometown, and reasonably so. But 2024 didn't go according to anyone's plan; Bednar only managed to work to a 5.77 ERA, 4.80 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP in 57.2 innings pitched. Bednar’s peripherals took a brutal, collective hit as well; his K% dropped nearly 10% to 22.1%. His walk rate also shot up to 10.6%, while his HR/9 rose by over double to 1.40. Bednar’s 9.2% barrel rate was also a huge step back.

Bednar’s regression was one of the biggest reasons for the Pirates’ late-season collapse. He was supposed to be the most crucial member of the Pirates’ bullpen, and he failed to close games out like he had in the two previous seasons. Bednar’s season was rough, to put it lightly, but there are multiple reasons why he could rebound in 2025.

4 reasons David Bednar could return to prominence with Pirates in 2025

The Right Stuff

Even though Bednar’s numbers look diminished, his stuff did not disappear or recede. Bednar threw harder than ever in 2024, averaging 97.2 MPH with his four-seamer. His fastball also lost about an inch of vertical movement, sitting at 10.8 inches, which gave it even more of the "riding fastball" effect he's always coveted. It also did not lose any horizontal movement, either.

His curveball also gained more horizontal and vertical movement, while his splitter maintained attributes similar to those of his previous campaign in 2023. Stuff+, a static that measures the quality of a pitcher’s offerings where 100 is average, put Bednar at 115 in 2021-2023. Bednar’s Stuff+ rating clocked in at 128 this past season, which was the 22nd-best in baseball.

It comes down to his ability to locate better. Location+, a similar statistic to Stuff+ that essentially measures a pitcher’s ability to execute pitches, had him at just 97 this year. He combined for a 102 Location+ rating over the course of his three prior seasons. There’s no question Bednar still has the ability and, if anything, he’s only gotten better in that regard.

Health Permitting...

One of the reasons Bednar may have struggled this year is because of some injury problems that haven’t arisen in previous seasons. Bednar missed part of spring training because of a lat issue. The two-time All-Star didn’t make his preseason debut until late March, and he only ended up throwing 30 pitches. He threw at least 94 in spring training during 2021, 2022, and 2023.

That definitely affected him, as he allowed nearly as many earned runs in April 2024 (13) as he did during all of 2023 (15). Bednar got things back on track, pitching to a 2.11 ERA, 3.35 FIP, and 0.89 ERA across his next 21.1 innings. However, the former All-Star missed nearly a month of playing time, as he was placed on the injured list in late June due to an oblique issue. He didn't return until right before the All-Star break.

Unfortunately, Bednar once again had another rough patch after being activated. His final 26.1 frames of the year saw him put up a poor 6.49 ERA, 5.67 FIP, and 1.78 WHIP. Sure, Bednar struggled this year, but it only seemed to be when he wasn’t at 100%. We saw what a fully healthy Bednar did in 2023. If Bednar can have a normal offseason and properly warm up during spring training 2025, he'll already be ahead of where he was for most of 2024.

Pitch Tipping

Former MLB reliever Trevor May pointed out a potentially huge flaw in David Bednar's game this past year: Bednar was tipping his pitches. Small indicators, including how he held his glove on different pitches, how he moved his hands, and where his glove was during his motion, were giving away Bednar's different pitches. They may have been as small as blink-and-you'll-miss-it moments, but May made a strong case for Bednar tipping his pitches.

The Pirates have to have seen this as a potential issue by now. May posted his video on Sept. 8. This should not be a huge problem to fix for 2025. It might be as simple as adjusting Bednar's stance on the mound, making a slight tweak to his pitching motion, or even Bednar himself just making a slight conscious effort to conceal his pitches better. If this was one of the biggest problems Bednar dealt with in 2024, then he should have no problems rebounding in 2025.

Track Record and Reliever Volatility

I mean, come on, it’s still The Renegade. It is understandable why fans have a “What have you done for me lately” attitude, but Bednar’s poor 2024 doesn’t erase what he did in the three previous seasons. Among relievers with at least 120 innings pitched in 2021 through 2023, Bednar ranked top 10 in ERA and FIP. Only 31 relievers had a K% above 30% between these three seasons, including Bednar. But only seven had a walk rate below 8%, with the Pirates' righty being one of them.

Arguably the best statistic to measure how effective a late-inning reliever was during a given stretch is win probability added, given that it’s a context-based stat. Bednar’s +6.40 WPA was the eighth-best in baseball. On top of that, the gap between Bednar and ninth place is large, as Scott Barlow had a +5.55 WPA and ranked just below Bednar.

Plus, relievers are the most volatile position season-to-season. The most innings Bednar has ever pitched in one year is 67.1, so one bad stretch can completely throw off a reliever’s game. Only five players in the 2000s have pitched at least 100 innings in a campaign without making a start, with the last being Scott Proctor in 2006, nearly 20 years ago.

It’s not as if Bednar would be the first reliever ever to have a handful of strong seasons with some poor ones in between. Josh Hader had a 5.22 ERA in 2022, but an ERA hovering around 1.20 in 2021 and 2023. Fernando Rodney put up what was the worst ERA+ at that point of his career in 2011 at 85 before going on to put up the best single-season ERA for a reliever of all time the following season. Billy Wagner had an ERA over 6.00 in his age-28 season, and he’s on the verge of making the Hall of Fame.

Needless to say, the case for Bednar's bounce back almost makes itself. Now, he just has to execute.