Advanced stats expose what held Oneil Cruz back in 2025 (and how he can fix it)

The Pittsburgh Pirates offense was absolutely putrid in 2025. While many are to blame for that development, perhaps no one is more at fault than former shortstop and current center fielder Oneil Cruz.

It feels like it's been forever that the Pirates and their fans have been waiting for a breakout from the supersized outfielder. His potential is tantalizing, but after a 110 wRC+ in his first full season in the bigs in 2024, Cruz made Pirates' history in 2025, yet also made it feel as if it might be time to cut bait.

Wild, isn't it? 20 homers and 38 steals are very nice to have, but when they come attached to a .200/.298/.378 line, it all feels a bit hollow. Cruz's loud tools were on display for the world to see during this year's Home Run Derby, but now heading into 2026, the question is what has gone wrong with the unicorn, and how can he fix it quickly? Pirates beat reporter Alex Stumpf has a few ideas.

What's wrong with Oneil Cruz, and how can he rebound for the Pirates in 2026?

To summarize Stumpf's findings, there are three key things Cruz must improve upon. In order, they are: improve against fastballs, become more aggressive, and get the bat out in front to pull the ball in the air more often.

Sounds simple, right? Well, not quite. Cruz hit .354 with a .577 slugging percentage against four-seamers in 2024, yet still produced just a 110 wRC+ on the year. A 110 wRC+ is good, but the Pirates need Cruz to be great. That number is also a bit misleading.

Cruz struggles mightily with offspeed and breaking stuff, so even if he improves against fastballs, he'll stop seeing them almost entirely. Being able to crush the heater is always a good thing, but Cruz will need to do more against these other offerings as well to not have those gains erased by a steady stream of soft stuff.

As for getting aggressive, that one cuts both ways. One of the things Cruz excelled at in 2025 was drawing walks. He walked at an 11.8% clip, a significant improvement over 2024's 8.5% mark, which was right around league average. Cruz will always be a high-strikeout player, but balancing that with the ability to draw walks is important.

The bigger concern is Cruz's swing decisions. Given his struggles and strengths, it wouldn't be a surprise for pitchers to try to pitch him backwards with great frequency. To that end, he'll need to get better at letting the tough pitches pass and jumping on what he can handle when it is in the strike zone.

The last key is to get the barrel out in front and pull the ball in the air more. This one makes 100% sense. The biggest positive to Cruz's game is his light tower power, but if he's late on the ball or consistently trying to shoot it the other way, he neutralizes what makes him special.

As for whether or not Cruz can put this all together, that remains to be seen. That said, embracing his strengths, improving his swing decisions, and getting at least somewhat competent against the soft stuff would go a long way towards making him a positive at the dish again.