An early look at the Pittsburgh Pirates’ potential Rule 5 Draft roster decisions

The Rule 5 Draft is still months away, as it takes place during the December Winter Meetings, but the Pittsburgh Pirates should start planning ahead of time. They need to start evaluating who will stay on the 40-man roster, who could be removed, and who should be added to protect them from getting taken in the draft.

Luckily, the Pirates will not have to make any tough decisions. The only prospect that appears on all three of MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and FanGraphs' top 30 Pirates prospect list that is Rule 5-eligible is Omar Alfonzo. The backstop had a solid season, batting .252/.357/.403 between Bradenton and Greensboro. He struck out just over a quarter of the time with a 25.9% K%, but walked at a healthy 13.5% rate. He turned in a .361 wOBA and 121 wRC+ at the end of the year.

But Alfonzo is only 21 and has yet to receive 100 plate appearances above Single-A. Catchers are also rarely taken during the Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft. The last backstops selected out of the Major League phase were Luis Torrens and Stuart Turner in 2016. The Pirates will likely leave Alfonzo unprotected with this history in mind.

Matt Gorski appears as one of the Pirates' top 30 prospects, but only according to Baseball America. Gorski hit .257/.319/.522 with a .359 wOBA and 110 wRC+ for Triple-A Indy. Gorski is known for his power and went yard 23 times in only 389 plate appearances, resulting in an ISO of .265. He walked 8.8% of the time but struck out a ton with a 28.6% K% and a 37.3% whiff rate. He cut his strikeout rate down to 23.8% and his whiff rate to 35.1% during the second half, but he's struggled with strikeouts throughout his entire career. 

Gorski has decent speed and is a good defender, both in the outfield and at first base, but his lack of contact severely hinders his power. He projects as a defense-first fourth outfielder type who could run into a few home runs. Gorski hasn't shown anything in the last year that would deserve a spot on the Pirates' 40-man roster. Another team may be willing to take a shot on him, given he can play all three outfield positions and first base with some grace, but he was passed up in the Rule 5 draft once already.

Brandon Bidois is the 24th-best prospect in the system per FanGraphs, but he doesn't appear on either Baseball America or MLB Pipeline's top prospects list. The hard-throwing relief prospect pitched 30 2/3 innings this year and logged a 4.11 ERA, 3.82 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP. Bidois struck out a third of opponents with a 0.88 HR/9 rate. But like many young fireballers, Bidois struggles to command his stuff and walked 12.9% of opposing batters.

Bidois sits in the upper 90s with a plus slider and above-average cutter. What's plagued him hasn't been the power, but rather his ability to harness it. Bidois made his Triple-A debut and is 23, but it's unlikely the Pirates protect him by adding him to the 40-man. In the unlikely chance that Bidois gets selected, the Pirates likely won't sweat it either.

There are a handful of notable depth pieces who are also going to be Rule 5-eligible, including J.C. Flowers, Carter Bins, Malcolm Nunez, Sammy Siani, Abrahan Gutierrez, Jase Bowen, Sean Sullivan, Eddy Yean, and Tyler Samaniego. These are names the Pirates probably aren't going to make room on the 40-man roster for, nor are they going to worry about losing them in the unlikely event they are taken.

The Pirates may not have to make a move to open up a roster spot to protect a player, but they could look to remove one in order to select one. Pittsburgh will have a handful of players hitting free agency but will have to make room to activate players from the 60-day injured list, like Hunter Stratton, Dauri Moreta, Johan Oviedo, and Endy Rodriguez. Daulton Jeffries, Ben Heller, and Marco Gonzales are also on the 60-day IL, but they likely won't be part of the roster anyway. Heller and Jeffries are DFA candidates, and Gonzales has a team option that will assuredly get turned down.

If the Pirates still must remove someone from the 40-man to make room, either for another player or a Rule 5 Draft selection, they could DFA any of Isaac Matson, Joey Wentz or Alika Williams. An alternative avenue includes making a trade involving one of the prospects on the roster, like Tsung-Che Cheng, Mike Burrows, or Braxton Ashcraft, prior to the draft.

It's a good thing they likely won't have to make any hard choices regarding players to protect or leave off the roster. The hardest decision regarding the Rule 5 Draft for the Bucs may end up being who they should take, if anyone at all.