Baseball America redraft has Pirates fans dreaming of what might have been

The Pirates have been wrestling with what to do with Henry Davis for the past several seasons. The former No. 1 overall pick has been more of a liability than an asset, and Baseball America’s redraft of the 2021 MLB Draft just rubs salt in the wound.

If it weren’t bad enough that Davis doesn’t even merit a first-round pick (much less the No. 1 selection), BA's staff has the Pirates picking Jackson Merrill in the newly imagined top spot. Imagining the Padres’ star center fielder suiting up in black and yellow is enough to make Bucs fans’ heads spin. Combine that with Paul Skenes and Merrill both debuting in 2024, and the image of Pittsburgh baseball completely changes.

Imagine if the Pirates had picked Jackson Merrill instead of Henry Davis in 2021 MLB Draft.

2021 was an uncertain affair, and the Pirates were rumored to be eyeing prep shortstops, such as Marcelo Mayer. Merrill should have fit the bill perfectly, but he was a late bloomer that didn’t register on some teams’ radar. There’s no guarantee that the Pirates would have been able to have the foresight that the Padres had when they shifted Merrill to center field and unlocked a defensive wizard (although the Bucs’ decision to transition Oneil Cruz in the same way suggests that perhaps Merrill would have travelled a similar path in Pittsburgh).

One can dream, though, of a 2024 Pirates team that featured Merrill, Skenes, and Jared Jones as a rookie triumvirate. Merrill would have led Pittsburgh in nearly every offensive category. His 4.4 bWAR could have swung the Pirates closer to .500 and may have silenced the fans’ outcry for more offense. Even in a down year in 2025, Merrill would have been by far the best bat in the Pittsburgh lineup.

It’s nothing more than hindsight that allows Merrill to rise to the top spot in the draft, though. He was a risk at the time, whereas Davis, one of the best college bats in the draft, seemed more like a sure thing. Thankfully, hindsight can also reveal the poor picks that the Pirates avoided. Had Pittsburgh gone the high school shortstop route and selected Mayer or Colson Montgomery at No. 1, Pirates fans would have waited four years to see any results from the first overall pick. When things are as bad as they have been in Pittsburgh, perhaps drafting a player that can make an immediate impact (even a negative one) is more reassuring than a gamble.