Baseball America's projected 2029 Pirates lineup has a jump scare on the infield

Baseball America just dropped a way-too-early 2029 Pittsburgh Pirates lineup projection, and most of it reads like a dream for a fanbase that’s waited on waves of talent: Paul Skenes and Bubba Chandler anchoring a deep rotation, Termarr Johnson in the middle infield, Bryan Reynolds still roving a corner. 

Then you get to third base — Jared Triolo is penciled in as the starter. That’s not a shot at Triolo’s glove or feel for the game; it’s a flashing warning light about what it would mean for the organization’s development arc. If the Bucs reach 2029 and are still asking Triolo to carry a cornerstone bat, something upstream went sideways.

Jared Triolo at third in 2029 would say a lot about Pittsburgh Pirates' plan

Because third base on a would-be contender usually screams thunder. It’s where you park a middle-order problem. Triolo’s profile has always been different: exceptional defense, smooth actions, high-IQ baseball, contact when he’s right. Valuable? Absolutely. But if he’s starting at third in 2029, it implies a talent gap the front office never bridged.

That’s the heart of the concern baked into this projection: failed prospect development. By 2029, the Pirates should have multiple pathways to an impact third baseman, whether it’s a homegrown riser, a converted shortstop with premium bat speed, or a trade/FA splash. Slotting Triolo there suggests none of those pathways paid off. It would signal that the org’s best offensive bets at the hot corner flattened out and the Pirates chose floor over ceiling in a year that ought to be about taking a swing at October.

Triolo’s own track record underscores why this would feel like settling. After a crisp debut in 2023 (.298/.388/.398 with 3 HR in 54 games), the bat backed up across heavier lifts in 2024 and 2025: .216/.296/.315 with 9 homers over 125 games, then .227/.311/.356 with 7 homers in 107 games. The defense never wavered — he vacuums the left side and makes the in-between plays look easy — but the power never truly arrived. Asking a 31-year-old version of that player to be your every-day third baseman is asking him to become something he hasn’t been: a middle-order bat at a power position.

That doesn’t mean Triolo can’t matter on a good Pirates team in 2029. In fact, the idealized version of this roster absolutely features him — just maybe not chained to third. He’s the versatile fixer who starts four times a week all over: third on Monday, short on Tuesday, second on Thursday, late-inning defense on Friday. He lengthens the bench, buys days off for stars, covers injuries without the roster caving in, and gives a manager matchup leverage. That’s a premium role on a club that’s actually chasing wins at the margins.

So treat Triolo-at-third as the canary in the coal mine. If he’s the starter in 2029, the Pirates likely missed on too many bats they were counting on. If he’s the multi-spot weapon on a roster that found or acquired a true middle-order third baseman, then BA’s projection looks less like a jump scare and more like a teaser for a club that finally cashed in its development stack. The difference between those two futures is exactly the development work, and one decisive acquisition that should define the next two offseasons.