Baseball America’s take on toughest Pirates Rule 5 Draft decision got it wrong

With the regular season over, many teams are forced to look ahead to what the offseason will hold. One of the most significant events of the offseason is the Rule 5 Draft, which takes place during the Winter Meetings. Prior to the draft, teams must protect players with four or five years of minor-league experience (depending on the age at which they signed) from the draft by adding them to their 40-man roster. One of Baseball America's newest articles looks at the toughest upcoming decision for each team. For the Pittsburgh Pirates, they listed outfielder/first baseman Esmerlyn Valdez. However, they couldn't have gotten it more wrong.

There are plenty of reasons why Valdez is all but guaranteed a 40-man roster spot. One is his performance. After an extremely promising 2024 season where he blasted 20 home runs with a 130 wRC+ at A-Ball Bradenton, Valdez only got better in 2025, slashing .286/.376/.520 with a 156 wRC+ in 529 plate appearances between High-A Greensboro and Double-A Altoona. Valdez continued to show off his powerful upside, going yard 26 times with a .234 isolated slugging percentage. He walked at a respectable 10.6% rate and reduced his K% from 30.6% in 2024 to 24.5% this past season.

Another big reason is the Pirates' roster construction. They do not have very much offensive upside among their position players. The Pirates scored the fewest runs in the game last year, were the only team to not hit 140+ homers with 117, and only ranked 18th in exit velocity and 24th in barrel percentage. They averaged just 3.6 runs per game. For reference, the Deadball Era Pirates (1900-1919) averaged 4.2 runs per game. Valdez has one of the highest ceilings in the Pirates' system when it comes to hitting.

Adding Esmerlyn Valdez to the Pirates roster isn't as difficult a decision as some are making it out to be.

Some of Baseball America's criticism of Valdez is legitimate and well-founded. He is a corner outfield/first base prospect with below-average speed and doesn't project well in terms of defensive abilities. That means there is a heavy reliance on his bat, and he struck out just over 30% of the time in 2024. That is something better, more powerful pitching could take advantage of, which BA notes. Valdez's production saw a massive dip from High-A to Double-A, going from a .977 OPS and 176 wRC+ at Greensboro to a .772 OPS and 120 wRC+ at Altoona.

But there are still many positives that can override these concerns. For one, Valdez was only in his age-21 season. He was the 20th youngest position player at Double-A who appeared in 50+ games. Valdez also got better as he got more accustomed to Double-A pitchers. Throughout his final 25 games and 119 plate appearances of the year, he had a significantly better .891 OPS and 159 wRC+ at Altoona. He also did all of this while playing in very pitcher-friendly environments. The league-average OPS in the High-A South Atlantic League this year was .663, while the average OPS in the Double-A Eastern League was just .680.

If that's not enough to convince you that Valdez isn't a tough choice, he has completely obliterated the competition in the Arizona Fall League. In his first five games, he posted four hits, all of which were home runs. In his sixth game, he homered for a fifth time. He has only struck out three times and has walked an astounding ten times. 

Sure, Valdez isn't a perfect prospect. He isn't among the Pirates' top ten prospects on either BA or MLB Pipeline. However, he is one of the closest Major League-ready bats in the Pirates' system, and for a team that has been completely starved for hitting the last two seasons (especially in 2025), they need as many young hitters with potential as they can get. Valdez should be guaranteed a 40-man roster spot this winter.