Bleacher Report's latest Mitch Keller trade fit is far from perfect for Pirates

Throughout the summer, the Mitch Keller trade talk represented some of the most exhausting rumors in baseball. The nonstop buzz around his name, with nothing to show for it, felt both relentless and pointless when August arrived. That narrative has gained some fresh steam ahead of the winter, though, as Bleacher Report recently labeled Keller to be a prime trade target for the Houston Astros.

Kerry Miller's reasoning for the Astros to target Keller involved four of their starters going down and needing Tommy John surgery, likely missing the 2026 campaign. "They need a workhorse to pair with Hunter Brown, and Mitch Keller has logged the sixth-most innings of any pitcher over the past three seasons," he wrote.

Bleacher Report suggests the Astros should acquire Pirates' Mitch Keller this offseason.

The fit for Keller is definitely there in Houston, no doubt about it. Their need for a starting pitcher with a strong track record of consistent innings is big, and adding Keller could really help. His contract of around $18 million AAV is a bit steep, especially considering he will toss a steady ERA slightly above 4.00. While that's about average, his ability to pitch in 30 or more games in the last four years is very impressive. The highest ERA in those years has been 4.25.

Keller is nothing more than a consistent middle of the rotation arm and that's fine, but he's not as valuable as some fans really believe. That is partially a factor as to why he wasn't dealt at the deadline in the first place. Nonetheless, the way he has pitched is just what Houston needs, and the Pirates should be more willing to move on, given how impressive Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft were to close out the season.

Pittsburgh is really only looking for bats, however, and Houston has one of the worst farm systems in baseball. Additionally, the Astros lineup is built up with a lot of veterans. While Keller's a great fit for them, Houston isn't exactly a good trade partner for Pittsburgh. Given the likelihood of the Pirates asking the Astros (or any team that adds him) to take on the majority of Keller's contract, the resulting trade package is unlikely to blow anyone away.

Ideally, the Pirates formulate a package starting with Zach Cole, a 25-year-old outfielder with power upside, but bad strikeout issues. He shined in his first 15 games for Houston with four home runs, but added a 38.5% strikeout rate. Shay Whitcomb could also be an option, a former top prospect who has not found a groove in the big leagues yet. He also brings power upside, belting 25 home runs in Triple-A this season.

A package headlined by one of these players would be worth it for the Pirates, but any trade would come with its own risks, and would remove some much-needed stability from Pittsburgh's rotation. Speculating on a Keller deal is extremely difficult, especially considering the potential teams involved. It seems like there is no right answer at this point to fulfill the deal.