Brandon Lowe's breakout is making his Pirates fate painfully obvious

For quite a while, there has been a large swath of Pittsburgh Pirates fans banging the drum for a Brandon Lowe extension, myself included. He was one of the leaders during the team's explosive start on offense, and even though he's struggling in August, he's been one of few above-average hitters on the team in the second half.

From a pure numbers standpoint, he obviously deserves a long-term contract. A problematic strikeout habit has dragged down his overall line, but a .250/.319/.476 slash with a 113 wRC+ is worth buying into, especially when it comes attached to a player who is a near-lock to hit 30 home runs and 60 extra-base hits before the regular season ends.

The thing is, he's also (finally) getting it done on the other side of the ball, playing the best defense of his career at 32 years old. After posting -14 Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average each a year ago, he's at +11 DRS and +10 OAA in his maiden campaign with the Pirates. By all accounts, he should be a Gold Glove finalist at second base, despite how crowded the position is in the National League.

Unfortunately, that same defensive prowess might make him too expensive to afford this offseason.

To keep Brandon Lowe, the Pirates will have to get out of their comfort zone

In terms of value, Lowe sits at 3.5 fWAR this year, ahead of notable second base stars Nico Hoerner, Ozzie Albies, and Ketel Marte. He may not be the best second baseman in the NL -- those Brice Turang and JJ Wetherholt guys are pretty good -- but he's certainly in the conversation.

At the same time, his two-way excellence has also ballooned his contract projections; longtime Pirates scribe John Perrotto has pegged his value at three years and $60 million, acknowledging that Lowe's improved glove will widen his market considerably.

That's a $20 million average annual value (AAV). For reference, the largest AAVs in franchise history belong to Konnor Griffin ($15.5 million) and Mitch Keller ($15.4 million). Exceeding those marks by about $5 million, roughly a 33% increase, for a player who is heading into their mid-thirties isn't normally the type of business we expect Ben Cherington and Bob Nutting to conduct.

Obviously, an exception can and should be made for Lowe. But with the lockout also coming this winter, the Bucs may be forced into an unenviable, urgent situation if the two-time All-Star wants to sign before Dec. 1.

Barring a surprising extension between now and the end of the playoffs, it's probably going to take a miracle to keep Lowe in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future.

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