Bubba Chandler’s eventual promotion will affect Pirates’ roster in more ways than one

Bubba Chandler’s debut is one many Pittsburgh Pirates fans are likely looking forward to. He’sone of the highest-ranked prospects in all of baseball. The young right-hander currently owns a 2.25 ERA, 2.90 FIP, and 0.93 WHIP in 28 innings. His 10.3% walk rate is about league-average, but he carries an outstanding 38.3% K% and a 35.4% whiff rate. His strikeout rate currently leads all qualified Triple-A pitchers. He also only has an 0.64 HR/9 ratio and a ground ball rate of 50% in Triple-A action.

Chandler, who entered this year as a hard-throwing pitcher, saw another uptick in velocity to 98.3 MPH. He also mixes in a slider, curveball, and changeup. He’ll be a tremendous asset to the starting five and could potentially be the Pirates’ second-best pitcher behind Paul Skenes. However, his eventual promotion will have a much larger impact on the Pirates’ depth chart, beyond just the starting rotation. The Pirates are going to have to move someone to the bullpen, which will give the Bucs another reliever.

That "someone" will more than likely be Carmen Mlodzinski. The right-hander has struggled as a starting pitcher this year, working to a 6.16 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 1.66 WHIP in 30.2 innings. He only has a 7.1% walk rate, but his K% sits at a well below-average 17.1% rate. He is currently carrying a career-worst 90.1 MPH exit velocity and 8.6% barrel rate.

However, Mlodzinski was used primarily as a reliever in 2023 and 2024. He made five ‘starts,’ but was mostly used in an opener role in those outings. Overall, he tossed 86.2 innings, working to a 2.91 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP. Mlodzinski may have had a worse BB% as a reliever, with only a 10.2% rate, but he had a much better 22.2% strikeout percentage and a HR/9 of 0.62. Hard contact was a non-factor, with an 89.1 MPH exit velocity, but an elite 3.3% barrel percentage. 

Carmen Mlodzinski can get back on track with Pirates after Bubba Chandler's call-up

He looked especially promising last season. Mlodzinski cut his walk rate below 10% at 9.1%, was tied for the fourth-lowest barrel rate of any pitcher with 50+ innings at 2.8%, and saw a big uptick in Stuff+. During his 2023 rookie season, Stuff+ only put Mlodzinski at a 98, which is slightly below average. Last year, he sat at 105. 

Moving Mlodzinski back to the bullpen would give the Pirates a reliever they can use in multiple roles. He’s no stranger to pitching in higher leverage. He had a 1.40 pitching leverage index in 2023. Opposing batters own a .207/.297/.252 triple-slash against Mlodzinski in late and close innings throughout his career. For reference, when Mark Melancon set the franchise save record with 51, he held opponents to a very similar .200/.248/.293 line in late and close innings. Mlodzinski has no problem facing the order at least once, and has held opponents to just a .207/.270/.345 triple-slash, and .276 wOBA when they faced him for the first time this year. 

Adding Mlodzinski into the bullpen mix is like acquiring the top relief trade candidate midseason, and the Pirates can do that by bringing up one of the best prospects in baseball, Bubba Chandler. The Pirates would be making a massive improvement to their pitching staff, as Chandler wouldn’t just make a positive impact on the rotation, but also the bullpen.