Cubs raise NL Central stakes by landing Alex Bregman, and Pirates must respond

Pirates fans were probably feeling pretty optimistic after the team traded for Brandon Lowe and signed Ryan O’Hearn. Finally, the Bucs’ front office was making moves to address the offense!

The oddsmakers at FanDuel, though, weren’t so high on Pittsburgh, and that was before the Cubs signed Alex Bregman. The NL Central division may be slipping away from the Pirates already.

Until this week, the Pirates seemed like the most-improved division team this winter. They were making big splashes and squeezing into big-name signing discussions. Meanwhile, the Brewers had mostly stood pat and even seemed willing to deal Freddy Peralta, and the Reds hadn’t found a bat to be the difference-maker in their lineup.

The Cubs were quiet as a church mouse... until they weren't.

2026 NL Central odds are out — and the gap is telling.

Chicago and Milwaukee sit up top, while Pittsburgh is sitting at +1000.

Is this undervaluing Pittsburgh, or right where they belong? 👀

Let us know where you’d put your money.

Odds via @FanDuel pic.twitter.com/safBEhBLPz
— 𝐍𝐒𝟗 (@NorthShoreNine) January 9, 2026

Already favorites to win the division, the Cubs are using buying power to bury their rivals.

The Cubs dealt their top prospect to secure Edward Cabrera and then signed coveted free-agent Alex Bregman. FanDuel’s odds after the Cabrera trade put the Cubs as favorites to win the division at +150. The Bregman deal cut their odds to +120 as of January 12. Everyone else in the division suffered, and the Pirates’ odds moved from +1000 to +1100. DraftKings has an even more dismal view of Pittsburgh, placing their odds at +1300 and below the lowly Cardinals.

Betting, of course, only provides a narrow view of the teams and their predicted success. Unfortunately, those other metrics also place the Pirates at a disadvantage. FanGraphs projects Pittsburgh to be worse than the Cubs at every position other than starting pitching. The Brewers are a bit more in striking distance of the Pirates; Pittsburgh outranks the reigning division champs at starting pitcher, center field, shortstop, and first base.

Perhaps we shouldn’t be so focused on what the oddsmakers and algorithms think. The Cubs were runaway favorites (-275) to win the NL Central at the All-Star break last season. Even more inspiring, the Guardians had +15,000 odds to win the AL Central at the All-Star break in 2025. Baseball is a long season with luck and tough breaks just seconds away. The Pirates are projecting a playoff mentality, but it's clear that the road to October will be long.

Already favorites to win the division, the Cubs are using buying power to bury their rivals.

Schedule