Deeper dive into 2025 Pirates proves they're among unluckiest offenses in MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates have had a dismal offense so far this year. They’re batting a putrid.184/.273/.290, with a .255 wOBA and 61 wRC+. They rank in the bottom five in most offensive rate stats and runs scored. It's been a rough go of things, but there is a lot of evidence in a deeper dive into their numbers that shows they are one of, if not the unluckiest team in baseball when it comes to hitting.

In terms of approach at the plate, the Pirates have a decent one. They only swing outside the zone 26% of the time, which is lower than the league average rate of 28.4%. But they're also making contact at about a league average 54.5% rate (average is 55.6%). They're also around average when it comes to in-zone contact rate at 85.6% (the average in MLB so far this year is 84.8%). Their overall contact rate of 76.8% is also around average at 76.2%.

The Pirates aren't just making contact at an average rate and not swinging outside the zone frequently, but they're making good contact as well. The league average barrel rate and exit velocity 2025 so far is 7.8%, and 88.8 MPH, respectively. The Pirates currently sit with a 90 MPH exit velo and 8.1% barrel percentage at the time of this writing.

Baseball Savant's expected stats are by far the most convincing evidence the Pirates are getting extremely unlucky so far. Their expected batting average (xBA) is .236. While that's still below average, it's a 53-point difference from reality, the largest in baseball. Their .395 expected slugging percentage (xSLG%) is about league average, and they're the only team with a gap greater than 100 points between this and their bottom-line slugging percentage. The next closest is the New York Mets at 74 points. Then there's their expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), which sits at a respectable .315 mark. That is, again, by far the largest gap among all 30 teams.

The most telling, however, is the Pirates' expected weighted on-base average on contact, or wOBACON/xwOBACON. Similar to wOBA, this tells how much damage players are doing when they make contact. The league average this year is .356. The Pirates have a wOBACON of .285, the lowest in baseball. But their xwOBACON is .380, a whopping 95-point difference. No other team is within even 30 points of this. The next closest is the Mets once again, with a .380 xwOBACON, but a .315 wOBACON.

The Pirates aren't just getting unlucky. They're the most unlucky team in baseball right now.

Unsurprisingly, the Pirates have a handful of hitters who have some massive gaps in their expected stats. Among their hitters with at least 30 plate appearances this season, four have a xwOBA difference of at least 50 points. There are only 75 total players in the game with that many plate appearances and that large of a gap between their wOBA and xwOBA.

Now you might be wondering, how is this any different from last year, when the Pirates greatly struggled with offense? Well, for one, the Pirates are more disciplined at the plate in the small sample size of their 2025 output. Their out-of-zone swing rate was 27.8% last season. They also made contact at just a 74.4% rate overall. They also weren't underperforming like this. They were performing exactly how the expected stats said they should.

The 2024 Pirates had a .234 batting average and .240 expected batting average. Their slugging percentage was. 371, while their expected slugging was .380. Their weighted on-base average was .295, while their expected weighted on-base average was .306. The only stat they got unlucky in was weighted on-base average on contact and xwOBACON, which sat at .353 and .370, respectively. However, making more contact should help them in this department.

That's not to say the Pirates should stand pat and change nothing. They should still promote some of their top prospects to replace some of the roster filler. The team could also benefit from being more aggressive in the zone. They're swinging at pitches in the zone at a 60.1% rate, compared to 64.6% for MLB as a whole. But overall, the team isn't as bad as the bottom line suggests. That's not to say they're suddenly going to lead the league in runs scored from here on out, but most underlying numbers pin them as a league-average offensive force, which, with their pitching, could take them a long way. On top of that, the Pirates will get some help when players like Nick Gonzales and Spencer Horwitz are activated from the injured list, and when they eventually promote Nick Yorke and Billy Cook.

It's been a rough go of things for the Pirates to kick off the 2025 season, at least when it comes to hitting. But there are still some positives and green flags in their underlying data. It's not like last season, when the Pirates' hitters were playing like expected. There is more potential here, and the offense should not only improve, but get more depth when they finally get some injured players back.