Did Padres force Pirates' hand with Paul Skenes after Jackson Merrill extension?

One of the biggest delights of 2024 was watching Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill excel on the big stage. Skenes was ultimately named NL Rookie of the Year, but irrespective of who won it feels like we're at the beginning of a fun long-term rivalry between two special players.

On Wednesday, Merrill turned the rivalry up a notch with an announcement from the San Diego Padres that he had signed a nine-year deal worth a guaranteed $135 million. The contract could eventually be worth up to $204 million with incentives, and with a $30 million club option for a 10th season.

Clearly this is a substantial investment for a player who enjoyed a hugely successful 2024 campaign. Understandably though, this leads to the question of how Merrill's big deal impacts Skenes' situation in Pittsburgh?

Another way to approach this, is to ask if the Padres have forced the Pirates' hand when it comes to their ace? Given that Skenes was quite rightly named 2024 NL Rookie of the Year, surely he similarly deserves a big contract extension, right?

Did Padres force Pirates' hand with Paul Skenes after Jackson Merrill extension?

In theory the answer is an emphatic, yes, but the issue that we're dealing with is the Pirates organization, i.e. one that's been reluctant to splash the cash in recent years. According to Spotrac, they are ranked 26th in the majors for 2025 with a payroll of just over $88.24 million.

To provide some context, this year's ranking is actually the Pirates' highest since they were 24th in 2017. As for the payroll, this is their highest figure since just over $91 million in 2018.

Now in the interest of objectivity, you have to consider that perception is reality. This year's payroll can either be viewed as more evidence this is an organization which doesn't want to spend big, or one which is now slowly and surely willing to put more funds into strengthening the roster.

How the Pirates decide to handle Skenes will offer a certain degree of proof as to which perspective is closer to reality. This will, in turn, theoretically galvanize or demoralize a fan base which has seen their team only make three playoffs appearances since 1992.

Put another way, if ownership hasn't changed their frugal approach, they will take advantage of Skenes' current contract situation, which still has two more seasons to go before he even reaches arbitration eligibility. However, if the Pirates truly believe he can be the catalyst for turning this team into a contender, they will look to go down the Merrill route.

Yes, we appreciate it's going to take more than one player to turn around the fortunes of the franchise, but you have to start somewhere. Now, it's a case of the Pirates proving they are serious about getting back to their proud tradition by getting Skenes locked up long-term ASAP, or continue to be viewed unfavorably around baseball.

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