Examining how dominant the Pirates' Opening Day Triple-A rotation will be in 2025

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These past few drafts and international signing periods have allowed the Pirates to bolster their pitching depth throughout their minor leagues. In fact, three of the Pirates' consensus top five prospects are pitchers who are on the brink of joining the big league team in Pittsburgh.

For now though, they are set to be a part of a remarkably strong starting rotation in Triple-A. The Indianapolis Indians barely missed a playoff bid in 2024, but with this strong pitching staff, there is a greater chance that they make it next year.

[All referenced farm system rankings are courtesy of MLB Pipeline.]

Who will be a part of a dominant pitching staff for the Indianapolis Indians, the Pirates' Triple-A affiliate?

Bubba Chandler

The Pirates' No. 1 prospect has a chance of earning a spot in Pittsburgh this Spring, but he has not won it yet. As of right now, it is looking like Bubba Chandler will be the ace in Indianapolis to start the season.

Between Double-A and Triple-A last season, Chandler posted an earned run average of 3.08 in 119.2 innings pitched and struck out 148 batters. Opposing hitters had a batting average of just .189 against him and his WHIP sat at 1.02.

Chandler brings four pitches, and each of them were only tracked by statcast during his 39.1 innings with Indianapolis. First is his fastball, which sits around 97 miles an hour and has shut down opposing hitters. Opponents have an expected batting average (xBA) of .174, expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .281, and a whiff rate of 30.5% against the offering.

Chandler also has solid breaking pitches. His slider sits around 87 miles per hour with 35.9 inches of downward movement. Opponents have an xBA of .205, xSLG of .280, and a whiff rate of 32.4% against the pitch. His curveball is not used often, but also limited batters to an xSLG of .172 in a small sample size.

Lastly is his changeup, which has a 28.4 inches of downward movement and 6.1 inches of vertical movement. It is his highest whiff pitch at 41.2%, along with an xBA of .120 and an xSLG of .169.

Chandler is a very impressive prospect with the talents to be at the top of the Pirates rotation. As of right now, he is leading Indianapolis' rotation and should be one of the best pitchers to start the year in Triple-A next season.

Braxton Ashcraft

The fourth-ranked prospect in the Pirates organization is Braxton Ashcraft and he is coming off his best season in professional baseball. Injuries have prevented Ashcraft from really taking off in his career thus far.

Ashcraft pitched in his most innings in a single season during the 2024 campaign, notching 73 in total. Across Double-A and Triple-A last year, he posted an earned run average of 2.84 with a WHIP of 1.07 and an opposing batting average of .234.

Similarly to Ashcraft, his pitches were only tracked in Triple-A, which represented just 19.1 total innings. His fastball sat around 95 miles per hour and it was hit around. Opponents' xBA against it was .257 and the xSLG was .381. That's not great for a pitch he throws nearly 50% of the time, but there is plenty of room for it to improve.

His curveball was barely used, but was not great in a small sample. The changeup was also not used often, but it generated a 40% whiff rate and an xSLG of .209.

Ashcraft's best pitch is his slider, which sits around 88 miles per hour and has 31.8 inches of downward movement. Opponents' xBA against it was .132, along with an xSLG of .185, and an impressive whiff rate of 44%.

When healthy, Ashcraft can be a very solid pitcher, but he has struggled to stay injury-free over the course of a whole season. He will be an excellent returner in the Indianapolis rotation.

Thomas Harrington

The other starter ranked in the top five of the organization's top 30 prospects is Thomas Harrington, coming in as the fifth-best overall prospect in the Pirates' current farm system. In just his second year of professional baseball, Harrington dominated his opponents across Double-A and Triple-A.

Across the two levels, Harrington posted an earned run average of 2.61 across 117.1 innings thrown, while allowing opponents to hit .220 against him and finishing with a WHIP of 0.96.

Harrington has thrown over 40 innings in Triple-A, making his Statcast sample size bigger than Chandler's and Ashcraft's. Harrington also brings together five different pitches to complete his arsenal.

His fastball sits around 92 miles an hour and was not his best pitch. It was hit hard at 90.8 miles an hour, while allowing a xSLG of .505. His other pitch used with high velocity was his cutter, which was also not great, allowing an xBA of .296.

Harrington's offspeeds are much better and more mature at the moment, headlined by his changeup. That pitch generated a 33.7% whiff rate, along with an xBA of .191 and an xSLG of .265. His curveball and slider have been solid, but barely used.

Harrington marks the third top prospect in this dominant Triple-A rotation. In fact, these three in the Indianapolis rotation are all ranked inside MLB Pipeline's league-wide top 100 prospects.

Mike Burrows

There's a fourth pitcher ranked in the Pirates' top 30 in Triple-A who will likely start the season as the fourth man in the Indianapolis rotation. Mike Burrows is the 16th-ranked prospect in the Pirates' farm system.

In his return from Tommy John surgery, Burrows struggled, but eventually made his major league debut. In Triple-A last season, Burrows posted an earned run average of 4.06 in 37.2 innings pitched, striking out 45. His WHIP sat at 1.41, with opposing hitters batting .253 against him.

In his major league debut, Burrows tossed 3.1 innings, striking out two, and allowing two hits, one earned run, and three walks against the American League champion New York Yankees.

Burrows' fastball sits around 94 miles per hour, but it got tagged in the minors, as it resulted in a hefty xSLG that sat at .636. The pitch is expected to improve, as poor results are expected in the aftermath of returning from surgery.

His changeup, on the other hand, was dominant, generating a 50% whiff rate, along with an opposing xBA of .115 and xSLG of .150. On top of that, his slider generated a 36.4% whiff rate with an opposing xBA of .167 and xSLG of .240.

If Burrows gets his fastball working, then hitters will struggle with his complete pitching arsenal. He was once a top prospect in the organization, but injuries have dropped him down. Nonetheless, Burrows will still play an important role in the Indianapolis rotation next season.

Po-Yu Chen

One of the best unranked prospects in the Pirates' farm system is Po-Yu Chen. He had a long season with Altoona, which finished as the best in his professional career. That step forward should result in him starting 2025 in Indianapolis.

Last season, Chen delivered 134 innings pitched, while allowing an earned run average of 4.03 with a WHIP of 1.29. Opponents hit .251 against him, and he struck out 96 batters. His FIP finished at 4.34, and his "home run to fly ball" ratio was solid at 8%.

Since he only pitched in Double-A, none of his pitches were tracked by Statcast in 2024. FanGraphs' current grades on his pitches are as follows: fastball 30/30, slider 40/45, curveball 45/45, splitter 55/60, and command 50/60. That represents both a present and possible future grade.

Chen has long been an interesting prospect to watch, and will be a big part of the Indianapolis rotation in 2025.

Overall, these five prospects have a bright future ahead in 2025 with Indianapolis. They make up a very dominant rotation at Triple-A.

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Examining how dominant the Indianapolis Indians' Opening Day rotation will be in 2025