Former GM’s 2026 Pirates playoff prediction leaves fans split between hope and disbelief

When the Pittsburgh Pirates were eliminated from postseason contention on Roberto Clemente Day, it officially marked one decade since the franchise had gained entrance into October.

It's been a long, weary road back to relevance since then. The team hasn't finished better than fourth in the NL Central since 2016, and their last winning record came in 2018. Outside of the greatness of Paul Skenes that should earn him the Pirates' first Cy Young Award since Doug Drabek in 1990, there's been little reason for optimism when it comes to the Steel City's baseball team.

Former MLB general manager Jim Bowden isn't letting that stop him, though. In his annual article for The Athletic ranking the 18 teams that missed the postseason, Bowden placed the Pirates at 13th, while acknowledging their potential as a surprise contender in 2026.

Pirates could be surprise contender in 2026... if they fix the offense

To defend his placement, Bowden cited the fact the Pirates finished September as the National League's top-ranking team in ERA. Led by Skenes and Mitch Keller, the team finished seventh in baseball in team ERA (3.76) and fourth in pitching fWAR (19.1).

Ultimately, Bowden concluded that the pitching staff is strong enough to carry this team back to October, though there's one obvious flaw the team has to fix before then: "They have to find ways to invest money and/or part with prospects to acquire bats, bats and more bats if they want to avoid wasting this strong pitching staff. If they are able to jumpstart the offense, they could be a surprise contender next year."

If that isn't the unfortunate truth.

The pitching talent in Pittsburgh isn't in doubt. Skenes and Keller should be joined by Bubba Chandler and Jared Jones atop the rotation at some point next season (if Keller isn't traded), giving the Pirates one of the most fearsome group of arms the league has to offer.

The issue remains that the offense is, well, offensive. They ranked dead last in the league in home runs (117), runs scored (583), ISO (.119), slugging percentage (.350), and finished second-worst in wRC+ (82) ahead of only the Colorado Rockies.

Bowden might even be understating how much talent the Pirates would need to infuse the lineup with in order to return to playoff contention. Having an elite rotation is a great starting point, but unless Pittsburgh is bold enough to trade cornerstone pieces of the franchise -- or, in an uneven more unlikely scenario, actually spend money on free agents -- there won't be any surprise contention for this team next year.