Grade the Trade: This Pirates-Orioles mock trade can helpfully swap prospects

It’s time for the Pittsburgh Pirates to make some serious, impactful moves. After coming off their second straight 76-win season that saw the team completely implode in August, the Pirates need to do what they can to make the team a potential contender in 2025. The Bucs have a solid core of players, especially when it comes to their pitching, and now is the best time for them to capitalize on their depth and build upon that foundation.

With the vast amount of pitching in the system, they need to make a splash on the trade market. So, let’s take some time and look at a mock trade I threw together based on what the Pirates need most: bats, in exchange for pitching.

This mock trade could push Pirates to next level in 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire: Heston Kjerstad
Baltimore Orioles acquire: Braxton Ashcraft

One team that could definitely use some pitching is the Baltimore Orioles, and with their glut of young position player talent, the Bucs and the O’s make great trade partners on paper. One young player the Orioles might be willing to move for a hurler is Heston Kjerstad. Kjerstad hasn’t gotten a chance to show off what he can do at the Major League level, but he has looked decent in the small sample size of playing time he has posted thus far. His first 147 plate appearances have yielded a .248/.336/.411 triple-slash, .325 wOBA, and 113 wRC+.

Kjerstad spent most of his 2024 season at Triple-A but put up some strong numbers, batting .300/.397/.601 with a .425 wOBA and 152 wRC+. Hitting for power was no problem for Kjerstad, as his isolated slugging percentage was .301 with a strong 90.7 MPH exit velo and 12.5% barrel rate. Although he had a quality 12.4% walk rate, Kjerstad also had an unimpressive 26% K% and 27.7% whiff rate, but both stats were about league average in the context of Triple-A’s environment.

Kjerstad could fill one of the Pirates’ multiple holes. The Pirates could slot him into right field, as the outfield corners are his primary position. He’s plenty fast and was in the 81st percentile of sprint speed, which he pairs with a powerful arm, as his throws sat in the 91st percentile of position player arm strength. If the outfield doesn't feel like a fit, the Pirates could slide him over to first base, a position he has nearly 400 innings at in his minor-league career.

The prospect heading to the O’s in this proposed deal is Braxton Ashcraft. The former second-round pick has broken out the last two seasons. In 2024, he pitched 73 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, working to the tune of a 2.84 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP. Ashcraft struck out just over a quarter of his opponents with a 25.8% K%, but he limited walks at an elite 4% rate. The combination of a solid K% and great BB% led to a K:BB ratio of 6.42, the 13th-best mark among minor-league pitchers with at least a dozen starts. On top of all that, Ashcraft’s HR/9 was just 0.74.

Ashcraft’s pitch mix includes a four-seam fastball he can run into the mid-90s, along with a slider, curveball, and changeup. Of his four offerings, only his change does not project as average or better. As indicated by his walk rate, Ashcraft has no problem hitting the zone and has displayed great control over his offerings over the last two seasons, with a combined BB% of 4.5%. MLB Pipeline has already put Ashcraft in their top 100 prospects, ranking him 85th.

Both Ashcraft and Kjerstad are ‘older’ prospects. Kjerstad is going into his age-26 season, while Ashcraft is heading into his age-25 season. The Pirates have performed similar trades in recent history, even with the Orioles when they sent Patrick Reilly to the O’s for Billy Cook at the trade deadline. This would only be a larger-scale version of that.