How the Pirates can land their next top shortstop prospect in the MLB Draft

As the 2025 MLB Draft approaches, the Pirates continue to prepare their final draft board. The final cycle of the season hasn't quite come to a close, as the College World Series has yet to commence. However, the industry is starting to get a pretty clear picture of how the first round will shape up on July 13 in Atlanta. While it's not a badge I assume the Pirates wear with pride, they have the privilege of drafting within the top 10 for the sixth year in a row, as they are set to make the sixth overall pick in the first round.

The Pirates' track record of drafting within the top 10 entering 2025 MLB Draft

Unfortunately for the Pirates, their string of first round picks dating back to 2020 haven't yielded a ton return. They've drafted first overall twice since, taking Henry Davis in 2021 and Paul Skenes in 2023. Between those two, you have arguably the biggest first overall bust since Brady Aiken in 2014 with Davis, and the biggest first overall slam dunk with Skenes.

Their other three top 10 picks find themselves somewhere between the success Davis and Skenes have found. Nick Gonzales, the seventh overall pick in 2020, has become a fringe major league infielder, but is still only 26 years old. Termarr Johnson, the fourth overall pick in 2022, has needed a lot of time to develop and is currently in Double-A, but has shown some big league upside. Konnor Griffin, the ninth overall pick last year, is looking like he's the next best Pirates top 10 pick behind Skenes, as he has torn up the lower levels of the minors having only just turned 19 years old.

With all of that being said, the Pirates front office has certainly had its share of hits and misses during this run, but for the most part has done a decent job of identifying future big league ballplayers. There is still time to tell just how well that crop of players shapes up, but Pirates fans can probably agree that they would like to see more of their draft picks end up closer to Paul Skenes than Henry Davis when it comes to success at the big league level.

Well, with another opportunity to draft within the top 10 comes another chance for the Pirates to find that next success.

This high school shortstop is the favorite to land with the Pirates as the sixth overall pick

Meet Billy Carlson, the shortstop for the top high school baseball team in the country, Corona High School in Corona, California. Carlson shares the field one of the top pitching prospects in the draft, Seth Hernandez, as well as Brady Ebel, another potential day one pick this July.

Carlson is a 6'1" and 185-pound Tennessee commit at the age of 18. From as far back as last year's draft, he has been a premier name in the 2025 class as one of the top prep prospects. For a period of time this year, Carlson was looking like he had the potential go first overall, but looks to be settling in at the back half of the top 10. MLB Pipeline ranks him as the seventh-best draft prospect in the class, while he ranks 10th on Baseball America's list. Plenty of previous mock drafts have him landing with the Pirates as the sixth overall pick.

The calling card for Carlson is simple - the elite glove at shortstop. He's the only shortstop projected to be a day one pick from both the prep and college ranks with a 70 grade attached to his glove. He's a very fluid mover at the position, moving well both to his front and backhand with great footwork and quick hands. Along with the glove, the arm is a 65-grade tool, making it one of the best arms in the draft. There are very tangible numbers that show us just how impressive his arm strength is. He was a legitimate two-way prospect for a while, pumping upper-90s fastballs on the mound. The fact that he was a legitimate two-way force speaks to the athletic upside in this kid. If he weren't so toolsy away from the mound, he probably could be drafted as just a pitcher, too. The combination of glove and arm make Carlson one of the most likely prospects to stick at shortstop in the long-term, a trait very important to organizations.

Although the glove is what will bring plenty of opportunity to Carlson at the pro level, the bat isn't too far behind. He has a 50-grade hit and power tool, and there's a lot you can dream on as he continues to grow into his frame. The hit tool has brought the most questions, as he hasn't really tapped into it against top competition in game yet. However, he has shown a mature approach at the plate and hits a lot of hard line drives. There's not a lot of wasted movement in the swing, along with present bat speed that will help him tap into more of that game power as he learns to lift the ball with more consistency. His speed on the bases is well above-average, which of course only boosts his offensive profile. The safest bet is on him being an above-average bat in the minors with potential to be a league-average bat in the majors.

How Carlson fits in the Pirates farm system

Given the profile both on the field and as an athlete, Carlson draws a lot of similarities to Konnor Griffin, the Pirates' first-round pick last year. Griffin was among the top prep prospects, as is Carlson, and is a pure athlete first (similar once again). The biggest concern in Griffin's profile came from his feel to hit, and that's the biggest question in Carlson's game as well. It's safe to say the Pirates have done a good job of working out the kinks in Griffin's swing to make him a premier bat in their farm system - there's no doubt they can do the same for Carlson. Personally, I'm more of a fan of Carlson's swing this year than I was of Griffin's last year. It's tough to know if the Pirates feel the same, but they have got to feel good about adding this kid to the system, given the early returns they've gotten from Griffin.

Now I can already hear some of the push back from fans. Yes, they did indeed take a shortstop with their first-round pick last year, and yes, they did draft a total of four shortstops last year, three of whom came from the prep ranks. The fact of the matter is that the demographic of prep shortstops has been among the most successful demographics for teams to select from and worry about the particulars later. They are typically the best athletes on the field, and they hardly every actually stick at shortstop long-term. They're usually expected to eventually move off of the position and become above-average defenders elsewhere.

If you take a look at the four shortstops they drafted last year, Konnor Griffin is the only one that has the defensive upside to be a big league shortstop, and even he will profile better as a plus center fielder. Wyatt Sanford, their second-round pick, is already playing more at second base than shortstop for Low-A Bradenton. Eddie Rynder and Duce Gourson, their fourth- and ninth-round picks haven't even appeared at shortstop in a game since they entered the system. The addition of Carlson wouldn't be a problem at all for their infield depth. It would only assure the Pirates that they have a slam dunk elite defender that can actually stick at the position long-term.

What Carlson's signing bonus could look like

The slot value for the Pirates' first-round pick comes in at $7.55 million. With their last two first round picks from the prep class, Konnor Griffin and Termarr Johnson, the Pirates paid slightly over their picks' slot value in order to sign them away from their college commitments. A commitment to Tennessee is a tough one to sign a kid away from, but prep guys are always going to lean towards the first-round money. With that being said, there's a chance the Pirates could get Carlson right at slot value considering the way some collegiate prospects have shot up draft boards. If Carlson and his camp believes he may slide a few spots, it might be in their best financial interest to take what the Pirates are offering. The cheaper Pittsburgh can get him, the more money they have from the bonus pool to save on picks later in the draft.

There's a lot that can still change between now and July 13. If the first five picks consist of some kind of combination of a few college pitchers and Ethan Holliday, Eli Willits - another toolsy prep shortstop - may be available to the Pirates. For all we know, the Pirates could act against speculation and take the best college arm still available or Aiva Arquette, the best college hitter in the draft and a shortstop as well. My gut, and the guts of a lot of people in the industry, still feel that Carlson is the favorite to land here, so now it's time for us to wait and see.