Latest ZiPS projections for 2026 have Pirates fans up in arms

Considering that the Pittsburgh Pirates haven't finished higher than fourth in the NL Central since 2016 and have only had one season above .500 in that span (when they went 82-79 in 2018), it wouldn't be a real surprise to see the team struggling to beat out the established divisional powerhouses in 2026.

The Milwaukee Brewers, after all, have won four of the past five division titles. And the Chicago Cubs, with Alex Bregman and Edward Cabrera in tow, certainly look the part of a true World Series contender.

But when you project the Pirates to finish behind both the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals for this upcoming season, as FanGraphs' ZiPS model does, you know something is fluky. In fact, the Buccos are projected for a 74-88 record, which is two wins worse than both 2023 and 2024.

That predicted record is the third-worst in the National League, ahead of only perennial bottom-feeders in the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals. After an offseason filled with upgrades, particularly in the lineup, the Pirates deserve far better than that kind of disrespect.

Pirates should blow their 2026 ZiPS projections out of the water

In defense of his model's NL Central rankings, Dan Szymborski explained that "both the Reds and Pirates are towards the bottom of baseball in projected value from their starting lineups."

Considering that the Reds just swooped in and stole Eugenio Suárez from the Pirates, perhaps it's fair to lump both groups together. But whereas that was Cincinnati's lone marquee offensive addition, Pittsburgh has added Ryan O'Hearn, Brandon Lowe, Jake Magnum, and Jhostynxon Garcia to its coffers. It's hard to think the former is four wins better than the latter right now.

What's even harder to believe, though, is that the Cardinals are still projected to finish ahead of the Pirates in the division. All they've done this entire offseason is trade away talent, from Sonny Gray to most recently Brendan Donovan. And yet, they're projected to finish just one game worse than last year, whereas the Bucs' additions only have them positioned to make a two-game improvement.

At the end of the day, this is why the games are played. Even the most punctilious projections systems can only account for so many possibilities. Injuries, mid-season trades and signings, and the promotion of top prospects (cough cough, Konnor Griffin) all have a way of changing the fortunes of a season.

Still, in truth, the Pirates haven't earned the benefit of the doubt on the field. Their 12.2% playoff odds may seem comically low, but they haven't crashed October since 2015. To garner the respect this roster deserves, the Pirates will need to start stacking together wins for the first time in a decade.