On second thought, did the Pittsburgh Pirates get the steal of the 2025 MLB Draft?

The first round of the MLB draft saw the Pittsburgh Pirates take high school right-hander Seth Hernandez sixth overall. There have been plenty of immediate reactions that have veered towards the extreme in both directions. However, after the initial emotions from the pick have settled, it's starting to feel like the Pirates didn’t just take the best player that was available. They may have gotten the biggest steal of the draft well before Day 1 was over.

Hernandez is a pitcher who already has two pitches with double-plus potential. His four-seam fastball can hit 100 MPH, and regularly sits in the mid-to-upper-90s. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, which comes in at the low 80s. It has great tumbling movement as well. His other breaking offerings have some very promising traits.

Hernandez’s curveball has extreme spin, topping out around 3000 RPM. It sits in the upper-70s, giving him a third pitch in another velocity range. Finally, there is his slider. It may be his only pitch that doesn’t have traits that could make it a 60-grade pitch. However, it still projects as a fourth, above-average offering he can rely on.

Most hard-throwing high schoolers come with concerns about control, but not Hernandez. He has already flashed above-average control, with Baseball America stating it could even become plus (60 grade) given his clean mechanics on the mound. This is as close to a perfect package as you can get for an amateur pitcher.

Pirates' Seth Hernandez may have the perfect high school pitching package. Is he the steal of the draft?

Look at some of the pitchers in MLB this season who sit 97+ MPH with a high-spin curveball. You have Jacob deGrom, who sits around 97-98 at his advanced age, with an average curveball RPM over 2700. Tyler Glasnow may only throw 95-96 MPH, but that’s still excellent for a starter, and his curve averages out with even more spin. There’s also Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who averages out at 95-96 and possesses just over 2700 RPM of curveball spin. None of them can throw as hard as Hernandez, and none of them have an elite third pitch, either.

Most experts say that Hernandez is one of the most advanced high school pitchers in years. Baseball America compares Hernandez to Jackson Jobe, along with current All-Stars like Hunter Greene and Mackenzie Gore. JJ Cooper of BA also stated that he has better stuff and is more physically mature than many of the college arms in this year’s class. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the third-best prospect in this year’s class before the draft began.

Sure, everyone in Pittsburgh wants a bat, and understandably so - including me, before this selection was made. In any world, though, this would have been such a hard player to pass up on. The Pirates may have already gotten a huge steal before the end of the draft's first day. The Pirates should be counting their blessings that Hernandez fell to number six, because he could have gone number one.