One worrisome Bubba Chandler struggle is standing in the way of his Pirates future

While Bubba Chandler was never expected to break camp in the Pirates' starting rotation, the way he started the season made that decision look like a mistake. He began the 2025 campaign on an absolute tear, ending May with a 2.03 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 35% strikeout rate, and a top-three placement on both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America's top 100 prospects lists.

His triple-digits fastball, sharp breaking balls, and very advanced changeup have made him a consistent challenge for hitters in the upper levels of the minor leagues. He went undefeated with a 1.83 ERA in his first seven Triple-A starts to end 2024 and picked up right where he left off this year.

That is, until the calendar flipped to June, where Chandler's fortunes have taken a drastic turn. In four June starts, he's sporting an ERA north of 10.00, has thrown a total of 9.1 innings, and has issued three more walks than strikeouts. That includes one start where he walked four batters without getting out of the first inning, as well as his most recent outing, where he cruised through the game's first two frames before allowing six runs and being pulled in the third.

Chandler's ascent through the minor leagues and up prospect lists was due in large part to his ability to graduate from being a thrower to becoming a pitcher, but he's looked like the former lately:

When his strike-throwing takes that kind of a hit, he issues even more free passes, the pitches he does get over the plate are hit harder (and more frequently), and his swing-and-miss stuff disappears. After averaging 11 whiffs per game through the season's first two months, he's induced a total of 11 whiffs across his last four starts.

There were already multiple theories as to why the Pirates have held Chandler in Triple-A as long as they have. Pittsburgh is always accused of service-time manipulation, but there are other legitimate reasons as well—there's no real need to rush him while the Pirates are still scuffling (they're on pace to lose upwards of 95 games) and while starting pitching is basically the only thing the Pirates are good at (their rotation ranks top-10 in MLB in innings pitched, ERA, and WAR).

The Pirates now have a performance-based excuse to keep Bubba Chandler in the minor leagues.

While hopefully not detrimental to his long-term development, Chandler finally hit a roadblock when it seemed like he was finally on the verge of his MLB debut. At this point, it doesn't hurt anything to keep him in Indianapolis until he gets back on track and starts throwing strikes and shutting hitters down again. Hopefully he makes his way to Pittsburgh later this season and is alongside the likes of Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in the team's 2026 rotation.