Oneil Cruz's key Pirates development comes with a terrifying downside

At this time last year, we were talking about whether or not it was time for the Pittsburgh Pirates to move on. The six-foot-seven specimen was full of tools, but his weak points were getting more glaring as he recorded a career-worst 85 wRC+.

Despite missing a lot of time due to a fractured hand, when he's been on the field, it has been night and day since last season. Cruz is slashing .267/.360/.479 with a career-high 128 wRC+. A big reason for the drastic improvement has to do with his performance against left-handed pitching.

Southpaws had long stymied the hulking slugger. For his career, he had posted a miserable .172/.247/.313 line against same-handed pitching entering 2026. His .560 OPS against them made him a clear platoon candidate, if he could even prove to hold onto his lineup spot.

However, this season, something miraculous has happened. Cruz isn't just holding his own against lefties; he's annihilating them. So far, he's hitting .294/.349/.471 with four homers over 102 at-bats against them. Ironically, his .842 OPS against southpaws is identical to his OPS against righties.

It has been a pleasant development to say the least, but at the same time, his lengthy IL stint cost Pittsburgh some games. The Pirates are significantly better offensively this season versus last year's debacle, and a lot of that has to do with potent veteran lefty bats like Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn being brought in.

Pittsburgh has the second-highest OPS against right-handed pitching in baseball at .757, but against lefties that number plummets to a 25th-ranked .683 mark. That includes Cruz's dominance against southpaws, shining a light on how much worse things are when he's not in the lineup.

However, Cruz's performance against lefties comes with a horrifying caveat, a 40.6% strikeout rate.

Oneil Cruz's ghastly strikeout rate might mean that his Pirates breakthrough is merely a mirage

There are some things that just need to be accepted with Cruz. Chief among them is the fact that he's always going to strike out a lot. Some of that is a byproduct of having such a forceful swing, and some of it is due to the complications that such long levers bring into the equation. The trade-off is massive power, so as long as the Ks don't reach egregious heights, it's still a net positive.

Checking in with a K-rate over 40% is egregious, though. And it's not like we haven't seen Cruz seemingly make progress against lefties before, only for him to turn back into a pumpkin over time.

And that brings up another key point: the sample is pretty small. 106 plate appearances aren't entirely significant, and that cuts both ways. It could mean that his K-rate is artificially high, but it could also mean that he's bound to crater against southpaws.

The Pirates have shown the occasional flash against left-handed pitching this season. Still, the performance hasn't been consistent enough to make a real difference. Getting a couple of true lefty mashers on the roster has to be a top priority, and if Pittsburgh can do that and Cruz's improvement against southpaws continues, the club will really be cooking with gas in 2027.

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